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Old 10-07-2010, 08:39 PM   #41
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Damn. And DH and I will be too old to enjoy it.
Pffffftttttt.....
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Old 10-07-2010, 08:50 PM   #42
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3. a judge rules that credit card debts are unenforceable because the issuers failed to adequately make clear to cardholders that they would actually have to pay for the amounts charged to the cards.
Is it not already true today?
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Old 10-07-2010, 09:05 PM   #43
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2020

Ugh, I tried to give it an honest answer and I got depressed. Time for a joint.
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Old 10-07-2010, 09:09 PM   #44
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Is it not already true today?
Sometimes it feels like it
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Old 10-07-2010, 09:40 PM   #45
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I'll predict that in 10 years I'll be enjoying pretty much the same surfing & beach-bum lifestyle that I'm enjoying now...
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Old 10-07-2010, 10:13 PM   #46
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In 10 years I'll be 65. About the only thing that I can predict is that the 10 year PenFed 5% CD in my Roth IRA will be maturing in Jan 2021.
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Old 10-07-2010, 11:18 PM   #47
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Old 10-08-2010, 01:41 AM   #48
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My crystal ball says "In 2020 things will be more or less the same as they are at present, but columnists will be predicting increased doom and gloom by 2030."
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Old 10-08-2010, 06:20 AM   #49
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Maybe these predictions won't happen in 10 years - but they will happen:
  • Standards of living will continue to rise - primarily because of technology and productivity gains.
  • Energy will still be cheap - but it will be renewable energy, not oil.
  • Our trade deficit will plummet (1/2 of the deficit is oil).
  • Asian currencies will strengthen to a fair level - and our debt the Chinese are holding will be substantially devalued.
  • There will be a "Manufacturing Renaissance" in USA - using automation and with a level currency playing field with Asia.
  • There will be a labor shortage in USA - Baby Boomers retired - following labor pool is smaller -higher demand for labor
  • The world will "take care of itself" and billions of dollars in US military budget will be redeployed to take care of Americans.
But the most important prediction: we will be all happily "Early Retired".
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Old 10-08-2010, 07:10 AM   #50
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what do you think the economy, standard of living, etc. will be like in ten years (and why if you care to).
What did you come up with?
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Old 10-08-2010, 07:24 AM   #51
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What did you come up with?
I would really like to think this recession will change us, just as the Great Depression did that generation, though I expect less dramatically. While there are people still striving to live beyond their means, I'd like to think many in the mainstream will be more frugal. This means the last/current recession was a "reset," as some economists have suggested - and our years of obvious excess are coming/have come to an end.

That being said, in broad terms I think cost of living will increase and therefore standard of living will decline for the USA. I think investment returns over at least the next several decades will be below historical expectations but still net positive. Our issues with health care, social security, medicare, debt/deficits, energy will all be addressed but not without more sacrifice than anyone wants to accept - and not because of good political leadership or an informed electorate, but only out of necessity when there's no alternative to acting.

We'll be fine, but it won't be the party the USA had in the last half of the last century IMO.
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Old 10-08-2010, 07:29 AM   #52
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I predict that there will be a big event, a shock to the system, like what happened to New York City in the 1970s. That is, the banks simply shut their windows and refused to lend the city any more money until it reformed its awful fiscal practices.

If foreigners were to to stop lending to us (i.e. buying US bonds) and the UST were to then have trouble meeting its current obligations such as SS payments or interest on the national debt, that would be big news and act as a big wake-up call. [Think back to the early 1980s when SS nearly went broke, resulting in the Greenspan Commission and a big hike in the FICA tax and a delay in the COLA in 1984 (and a gradual hike in the retirement age).]

Will both parties hold hands and jump off the cliff together as they did for SS back in the 1980s? Or will they foolishly put partisan interests ahead of the good of the nation and attack draconian and politically unpopular solutions??
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Old 10-08-2010, 07:38 AM   #53
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....................Will both parties hold hands and jump off the cliff together as they did for SS back in the 1980s?
No

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Or will they foolishly put partisan interests ahead of the good of the nation and attack draconian and politically unpopular solutions??
Yes


Unless their corporate masters decide otherwise.
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Old 10-08-2010, 07:42 AM   #54
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Will both parties hold hands and jump off the cliff together as they did for SS back in the 1980s? Or will they foolishly put partisan interests ahead of the good of the nation and attack draconian and politically unpopular solutions??
May well be, but why do you let the electorate off the hook? I think our political leaders reflect all of us much more than we care to admit...
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Old 10-08-2010, 08:42 AM   #55
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We have short memories.

I graduated from college in the oil recession of ’75. The future was bleak and everybody said the Middle East was soon going to have all the money in the world. There was no solution.

Just a decade later, the Japanese were taking over the world. Their banks were unstoppable, their business culture was superior and they were going to put every American out of work.

The world has a bright future and so does the US. Our population is growing, we have lots of natural resources, lots of space, and the best Universities in the world. Lots more people want to come here than want to leave. Our problems look insurmountable – but they also did in 1975. We have a culture that fosters innovation and creativity and will find a way forward.

Other countries in the world – developed and emerging - are going to have a much tougher time because they don’t have the advantages we have.

Beyond that, I am quite confident that my children and their children will have every opportunity to prosper. They will need to make the right choices and work hard, but the opportunities are and will continue to be there.
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Old 10-08-2010, 08:56 AM   #56
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I hope you're right...
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Old 10-08-2010, 09:09 AM   #57
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I would really like to think this recession will change us, just as the Great Depression did that generation, though I expect less dramatically. While there are people still striving to live beyond their means, I'd like to think many in the mainstream will be more frugal. This means the last/current recession was a "reset," as some economists have suggested - and our years of obvious excess are coming/have come to an end.

That being said, in broad terms I think cost of living will increase and therefore standard of living will decline for the USA. I think investment returns over at least the next several decades will be below historical expectations but still net positive. Our issues with health care, social security, medicare, debt/deficits, energy will all be addressed but not without more sacrifice than anyone wants to accept - and not because of good political leadership or an informed electorate, but only out of necessity when there's no alternative to acting.

We'll be fine, but it won't be the party the USA had in the last half of the last century IMO.

I don't think so.... during the Great Depression, it was felt by almost everybody... even if you still had a job... and it lasted a LONG time... and many people were starving etc. etc...

This one is mostly 'paper' in nature... sure, lots of people are unemployed, but not anywhere near as many as back then... people can still find jobs (not back then), people are not starving as they get unemployment and food stamps....

So, for most people, this is just a blip in the economy... when things turn around they will go back to what they were doing... maybe not buying the mini mansions, but still living large...
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Old 10-08-2010, 10:03 AM   #58
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May well be, but why do you let the electorate off the hook? I think our political leaders reflect all of us much more than we care to admit...
Too many of our political leaders reflect the extreme positions, not the more reasonable and moderate positioins of the electorate. We will see this more and more in the next two years when the state legislatures do their decennial routine of "selecting the voters" in the next round of redistricting. If we have 1.4 million people living in one area within a state with a good mix of liberals, conservatives, and moderates, the politicians will draw two U.S. House districts which put as many of the liberals together into one as possible, and as many of the conservatives together as possible in the other to elect the most extreme congressmen as possible into two "safe" districts and there isn't a whole lot anyone can do about it. Even the SCOTUS has allowed this practice.
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Old 10-08-2010, 10:36 AM   #59
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Too many of our political leaders reflect the extreme positions, not the more reasonable and moderate positioins of the electorate.
There have been some extreme characters on both sides or even some moderates with a few extreme positions (who are mislabeled extreme based on same) but most of our leaders are left or right of center.

Not all, but most of the electorate is clueless and apathetic, you need only ask the 'man in the street.' Their opinions are mostly borrowed from family, friends and their favorite media talking heads. They confine their discussions to like minded sources if at all (some folks never get news from other sources than their favorite). They know much more about our pop culture than ideology. I'm no genious but I've had lots of conversations with folks who emphatically state a position, usually based on something they heard elsewhere, and once you engage them in detailed discussion their 'argument' breaks down completely.

It's easy and convenient to blame politicians. We get what we deserve...
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Old 10-08-2010, 04:38 PM   #60
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We will be in out 10th year of FIRE. Or at time would it be FIR?? Since it would no longer be early.
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