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Old 09-24-2009, 10:04 AM   #41
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46 calendar days but only about three working days.

Oh, she's down to party time !!!
Fun in the Sun,
Steve
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Old 09-24-2009, 10:14 AM   #42
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Originally Posted by Stevewc View Post
...(snip)...
The fed plans to stop buying treasuries in Oct. 2009.
Do the bond guru's on this board (all of you guys) think we will start to see interest rates rise and the Nav's fall a little as this occurs?
I've been watching and waiting to see how this effects things before buying into tax exempt bond funds. Wise or unwise this I'm not sure of.
...
Steve, the more I learn about bonds the more I find that it is an extremely efficient market and most of us are unlikely to get a jump on it. Apparently research has shown that the current yield curve is the best determiner of future rates and that moving out on the Treasury yield curve should be done if one gets on the order of 25bp more per year.
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Old 09-24-2009, 10:37 AM   #43
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W2R,
Are you really down to 46 days? What a short timer you are !!!
Must be nice
Yes, it is! I have 46 days, but 11.5 more working days since I am taking some time off as I approach retirement. Not quite as close as REWahoo's tongue in cheek estimate, but most definitely party time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stevewc
Probably a little anxiety also.
A lot of that is worrying about whether I will have any trouble getting my pension or health benefits in place. Most people don't, but being a worrier I worry. Sometimes I worry that maybe I am completely nuts to think I can do this, but logically I know with great certainty that I can.

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Originally Posted by Stevewc
I'm still trying to make my decision as to go or no go. (like NASA)
I seem to feel different about it each day. Hard decision for me.
Just the thought of giving up a good job in general is hard.
There are very few jobs in my specialty that pay enough to live on, other than mine. I have a 0% probability of ever being able to land another one, at my age. But, I have beat my financial plan to death, assuming the most dire worst case scenarios, and really with a little LBYM I don't see much chance of it failing. I am less well prepared for the emotional aspects of retirement, but I can work on that more after retirement.

Quote:
I guess the insurance coverage between now age 65 is the real problem for me. I'm 55/56 and have a lot of years I'll need to cover.
Federal employment has its advantages and I am really glad I went that route. Plus, I am 61 years old already (and feeling like I am 113 today).

Quote:
Anyway, I too thought this was a good article and I'm on the side watching.
My MM funds which have more cash than usual could use some higher rates also,
Steve
That's for sure! I have WAY more cash in MM than my plan would normally dictate, and will until we get settled up north.

Quote:
PS. My first window out of the work force is: 12/17/09 - would apply for 01/01/2010 probably !!!
I've only been waiting for this 30 years
You're close!! So close!! You're right behind me. I hear the water's warm.
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Old 09-24-2009, 10:42 AM   #44
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Yes, it is! I have 46 days, but 11.5 more working days since I am taking some time off as I approach retirement. Not quite as close as REWahoo's tongue in cheek estimate...
My estimate is dead on. You may be 'at work' for 11.5 days but no way will you put in more than three days actual work.
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Old 09-24-2009, 10:53 AM   #45
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...(snip)...
Federal employment has its advantages and I am really glad I went that route. Plus, I am 61 years old already (and feeling like I am 113 today).
...
Hi W2R, you sound like a real planner, somewhat analytical and you are my age too. So I'm confident from your posts that you will do just fine. Sounds like the anticipation of this event is anxiety producing but also quite stimulating.
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Old 09-24-2009, 11:12 AM   #46
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My estimate is dead on. You may be 'at work' for 11.5 days but no way will you put in more than three days actual work.
Hee hee! There isn't a whole lot more they can assign me. I can't do anything long term, and I have transferred almost all my paper files and all of computer files already. I would be glad to do things like technical reviews and so on, and I am sure my supervisor (who is utterly ideal) is trying to think of things like that so that I won't feel unneeded. I don't! But that is what she is probably thinking.

My last week I will be running around completing my exit clearance. That hardly counts as work. So, I'd say 3 days is about right.

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Hi W2R, you sound like a real planner, somewhat analytical and you are my age too. So I'm confident from your posts that you will do just fine. Sounds like the anticipation of this event is anxiety producing but also quite stimulating.
It is pretty exciting. Plus, my only child (DD31) is getting married two weeks before I retire, plus eventually I need to get my house ready to sell. Haven't started on the latter yet.

I have a background in electrical engineering, which helped me to develop my analytical skills. And nobody cares about my money more than I do, as the saying goes.
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Old 09-24-2009, 01:45 PM   #47
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Originally Posted by Stevewc View Post
The fed plans to stop buying treasuries in Oct. 2009.
Do the bond guru's on this board (all of you guys) think we will start to see interest rates rise and the Nav's fall a little as this occurs?
I've been watching and waiting to see how this effects things before buying into tax exempt bond funds. Wise or unwise this I'm not sure of.

I noticed an article on line this morning that seems to go a long with my thinking. If you read this whole article you see how rates are being artificially manipulated and have to wonder.
I am certainly no guru, but it seems that the market must react to the Fed's decision to end treasury purchases. One would think that NAVs would fall and yields rise, but who knows? How does the fact that everybody knows what is going to happen affect the market?

Normally, a phase like "artificial manipulation" would set off my paranoiac warning system, but in this case there is no question. The Fed is manipulating everything it can. Those manipulations seem to have had a significant effect on the economy. Thinking about how and when they unwind them and how the economy reacts just makes me want a quaalude.
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Old 09-24-2009, 01:46 PM   #48
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Steve, the more I learn about bonds the more I find that it is an extremely efficient market and most of us are unlikely to get a jump on it. Apparently research has shown that the current yield curve is the best determiner of future rates and that moving out on the Treasury yield curve should be done if one gets on the order of 25bp more per year.

I'm still kicking my self because I had a great opportunity to jump in bond funds during the crash 2008/09 and basically watched it go away. Great timer I turned out to be. I was totally freaked out to be honest and just set and watched as far as bond funds were concerned. I did buy all the stock funds I need during the crash but just couldn't get the guts to buy bonds that were supposed to be safe steady investments (so I thought). I mean just the stock funds were like throwing money in a black hole. But it sure looks good to me today.
Steve

PS. The cash I invested and am now sitting on is new money, not something I pulled out of the market.
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Old 09-24-2009, 01:52 PM   #49
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I am certainly no guru, but it seems that the market must react to the Fed's decision to end treasury purchases. One would think that NAVs would fall and yields rise, but who knows? How does the fact that everybody knows what is going to happen affect the market?

Normally, a phase like "artificial manipulation" would set off my paranoiac warning system, but in this case there is no question. The Fed is manipulating everything it can. Those manipulations seem to have had a significant effect on the economy. Thinking about how and when they unwind them and how the economy reacts just makes me want a quaalude.
Quaalude ?

Are those things still floating around?
Might be a bit stale if they are left overs from early 70's
Steve
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Old 09-24-2009, 01:56 PM   #50
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I'm still kicking my self because I had a great opportunity to jump in bond funds during the crash 2008/09 and basically watched it go away. Great timer I turned out to be. I was totally freaked out to be honest and just set and watched as far as bond funds were concerned. I did buy all the stock funds I need during the crash but just couldn't get the guts to buy bonds that were supposed to be safe steady investments (so I thought). I mean just the stock funds were like throwing money in a black hole. But it sure looks good to me today.
Steve

PS. The cash I invested and am now sitting on is new money, not something I pulled out of the market.
I think one should try to target a steady state bond position and then figure how to get there. For instance, I think my ideal now would be something like a 50/50 mix of intermediate Treasurys and TIPS. But for the reasons I think I outlined in a previous post, I'm staying short term right now. When the 5yr Treasury approaches 5% that's when I'd like to be in intermediate Treasurys. Phasing it in as the rates move up (rather then time based) might be a good approach.
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