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Old 03-09-2011, 07:37 PM   #61
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I'll remember 2009 more for the loss of my father and MIL than for the movements in the markets. The market rose back up, our parents didn't.
Sorry for your loss.
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Old 03-09-2011, 07:42 PM   #62
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I'll remember 2009 more for the loss of my father and MIL than for the movements in the markets. The market rose back up, our parents didn't.

So sorry ! There is nothing like a personal loss to put money losses in perspective .
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Old 03-09-2011, 07:53 PM   #63
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Since DW is collecting SS and I have a COLA'd pension, I now treat this monthy income as an allocation to bonds (on Jack Bogle's recommendation). Currently we are 98% invested in stocks. When we start another bear market, I would probably return to a 50% allocation in stocks, but would not go below that number.
Is it market timing or something?

Quote:
I believe it's highly unlikely that the market crash of 2008-2009 will repeat itself in my lifetime.
I would not bid on this.
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Old 03-09-2011, 08:17 PM   #64
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I believe it's highly unlikely that the market crash of 2008-2009 will repeat itself in my lifetime.

Unless you are 95 I wouldn't bet on that !
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Old 03-09-2011, 08:40 PM   #65
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Let me refresh your memory !
Surely, all that shock to the brain would cause one's memory loss. And that was the time before Janet added that powerful emoticon to the forum smilies repertoire.

I don't remember how much head banging I did myself. But yawning, I will not claim. I have my records to remind me what an interesting time it was.

Looking at my cash level, I saw that being a CMT myself, I was selling and raising cash throughout 2008. In fact, in Oct 08, I had twice as much cash as I had a year earlier in Oct 07. Then, in the four months of Nov 08 through February 09, thinking that the market had bottomed, I started to buy back. My record truthfully shows that while I spent nearly $400K during those four months to buy equities, my total portfolio was still going down another $250K.

Whatever money I threw into the market was sucked in and promptly disappeared into that bottomless rathole!

So, when the market started to climb back up, I started to sell, as my cash level was rising again and peaked out in May 09. And then, obviously, I was sensing that the bull market was going to last a while, I was buying again, as my cash level dropped again. Had I held on to the stocks I bought in early 09, I would have done a lot better than where I am now.

Still, being more than 8% above my Oct 07 high, I should be grateful that I did not make too many wrong moves.

Writing this post reminds me that my cash level has not been this low for almost 4 years. Perhaps I should be lightening up on equities soon, really, really soon.
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Old 03-09-2011, 09:23 PM   #66
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Are your dividends actually 45% higher in dollars or are they 45% higher as a percentage of your portfolio value?
Technically both, since my dvds are up 45% and the market value is the same. Not too surprising - 2006 dvds vs current :

ABT 1.18 to 1.92 +63%
ADP 0.78 to 1.44 +85%
JNJ 1.50 to 2.16 +44%
KO 1.24 to 1.88 +52%
PG 1.24 to 1.93 +56%
SYY 0.68 to 1.04 +53%
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Old 03-09-2011, 09:32 PM   #67
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Well, I guess someone has to balance all this out. I sold off a bunch of my portfolio (probably about 15-25%) down toward the low. I really thought we were heading into a depression. Those damn bailouts just got in the way. Anyhow, poor prognosticating on my part. Damn those bailouts, anyway. (I know, I already mentioned that). So now you know who was selling you all the stock that you were buying.
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Old 03-09-2011, 10:27 PM   #68
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Damn those bailouts, anyway. (I know, I already mentioned that). So now you know who was selling you all the stock that you were buying.

Don't feel bad I sold 4% close to the bottom . I couldn't sleep and this was my solution . Stupid yes but necessary for sanity !
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Old 03-10-2011, 02:40 AM   #69
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I hope you are right. However, I believe it is very likely we will see something as shocking as the 2008 market collapse again in our lifetime, but it will not take the same form (i.e. it may be a huge currency collapse that time).

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I believe it's highly unlikely that the market crash of 2008-2009 will repeat itself in my lifetime.
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Old 03-10-2011, 03:40 AM   #70
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I hope you are right. However, I believe it is very likely we will see something as shocking as the 2008 market collapse again in our lifetime, but it will not take the same form (i.e. it may be a huge currency collapse that time).
I think huge currency collapse is at the front door knocking. I don't recall when way last time Canadian Dollar was worth more than US$? I'm beginning to believe both government is working toward Amero The North American Currency Union theory.
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Old 03-10-2011, 08:57 AM   #71
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I believe it's highly unlikely that the market crash of 2008-2009 will repeat itself in my lifetime.



People movin' out
People movin' in
Why, because of the color of their skin
Run, run, run, but you sho' can't hide
An eye for an eye
A tooth for a tooth
Vote for me, and I'll set you free
Rap on brother, rap on
Well, the only person talkin'
'Bout love thy brother is the preacher
And it seems,
Nobody is interested in learnin'
But the teacher
Segregation, determination, demonstration,
Integration, aggravation,
Humiliation, obligation to our nation
Ball of Confusion
That's what the world is today

The sale of pills are at an all time high
Young folks walk around with
Their heads in the sky
Cities aflame in the summer time
And, the beat goes on

Air pollution, revolution, gun control,
Sound of soul
Shootin' rockets to the moon
Kids growin' up too soon
Politicians say more taxes will
Solve everything
And the band played on
So round 'n' round 'n' round we go
Where the world's headed, nobody knows
Just a Ball of Confusion
Oh yea, that's what the wold is today

Fear in the air, tension everywhere
Unemployment rising fast,

The Beatles' new record's a gas
And the only safe place to live is
On an indian reservation
And the band played on
Eve of destruction, tax deduction
City inspectors, bill collectors

Mod clothes in demand,
Population out of hand
Suicide, too many bills, hippies movin'
To the hills
People all over the world, are shoutin'
End the war

And the band played on.
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Old 03-10-2011, 10:45 AM   #72
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I don't remember specifically what I was doing or thinking on 3//9/09. I do recall looking at my account balance and seeing that even though I was putting in maximum contributions plus over-50 catchup, my account balance was dropping! I was still working—I think if I'd been retired already and my account had been falling like that, I'd probably have panicked.

As it was, I instead started at some point wondering to myself whether I should buy more stock. This was purely based on stories I had heard of people becoming rich through buying at a panic point, and the fact that the words "market recovery" were starting to be heard. Any such purchase would have been pure speculation on my part, based on what "they" were saying the market was going to do next. After a period of vacillation, a relevant (albeit somewhat paraphrased) verse from James' epistle popped into my memory :
Quote:
Now listen Karen, you're thinking, “Today or tomorrow I'll buy a bunch of stock at the low and make pots of money when the market recovers”, but you have no clue what will happen next! Instead, you ought to say, “If it is the Lord’s will, I'll be alive, I'll still have a job and I'll be able to keep on saving as I planned to.”
So, I didn't buy more stocks, I just kept moving toward my target allocation. But at the time, I had a higher percentage of stock in my portfolio than my target AA, and it took me a while to get from there to the desired 30%, so I didn't miss out on the gains of the last two years and I'm still on course to retire as planned in 2013.
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Old 03-11-2011, 07:07 PM   #73
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Don't feel bad I sold 4% close to the bottom . I couldn't sleep and this was my solution . Stupid yes but necessary for sanity !

Gee, I don't know, Moemg. We seem to be the only two to have sold during the downturn. JUST WHAT WERE YOU THINKING? SANITY? WHAT'S THAT? Anyhow, since we are not nearly as sharp as the other members of this forum, maybe we should put each other on our ignore lists so as not to influence one another.
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Old 03-11-2011, 08:13 PM   #74
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Gee, I don't know, Moemg. We seem to be the only two to have sold during the downturn. JUST WHAT WERE YOU THINKING? SANITY? WHAT'S THAT? Anyhow, since we are not nearly as sharp as the other members of this forum, maybe we should put each other on our ignore lists so as not to influence one another.

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