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Old 11-04-2014, 06:11 AM   #21
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I have a solid real estate portfolio, and a decent ($1M) stock portfolio. I am not sure where growth will be, but I know over the last 100+ years, both have been great over a 20 year period.

If we have deflation, which we could very well have, it will be like the 1930s. If we have inflation, it will be like the 1970s. Stagflation, like the 1980s.

So, who knows, but diversification, staying the course, and hoping for the best is the only way out.

I would not invest in any country in Africa, as the governments are too unstable. Even a country like South Africa, one of the richest nations on the planet at one time, is no longer a place to invest. There was a time you would think that was the most stable country on that continent, and your investments would have been wiped out if you invested there.
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Old 11-04-2014, 07:15 AM   #22
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........... Explain again why if they are so smart at this that they are not already independently wealthy.
+1 This is my reality check for anyone with an investment scheme of any kind.
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Old 11-04-2014, 07:37 AM   #23
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Yes, people can make money, a lot of money, in rental real estate. They can also lose a lot of money, sometimes all of it.



Congratulations to them on their ego. Explain again why if they are so smart at this that they are not already independently wealthy.
They are independently wealthy....probably net worths in the +$5M range....but with major outgoings on mortgages and families and the fear that comes with having money to loose. They are right in the middle of the rat race....middle aged men in search of a heart attack.......They took a beating in gold and are always looking to gain the system.
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Old 11-04-2014, 07:42 AM   #24
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I have a solid real estate portfolio, and a decent ($1M) stock portfolio. I am not sure where growth will be, but I know over the last 100+ years, both have been great over a 20 year period.
We sound pretty similar in our investment mix...I have a paid off two family house and rent out the downstairs apartment. I plan for my retirement income to come from various small pensions, rental income and social security. I don't plan on needing to take income from my stock portfolio other than for tax planning purposes.
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Old 11-04-2014, 08:43 AM   #25
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They are independently wealthy.... ... ....but with major outgoings on mortgages and families and the fear that comes with having money to loose. They are right in the middle of the rat race....middle aged men in search of a heart attack...
If I were independently wealthy, this lifestyle would be far far from anything I would ever choose. It's hard to imagine someone who actually has the means choosing to live like this. Maybe that's my ER bent, but I'm very suspicious of people who claim to be financially very well off, then run themselves into the ground while making risky moves that endanger that supposed financial security.
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Old 11-04-2014, 08:54 AM   #26
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They will be better off staying well diversified and just tilt their AA a bit to sectors/investments they believe will do better.
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Old 11-04-2014, 09:16 AM   #27
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If I were independently wealthy, this lifestyle would be far far from anything I would ever choose. It's hard to imagine someone who actually has the means choosing to live like this. Maybe that's my ER bent, but I'm very suspicious of people who claim to be financially very well off, then run themselves into the ground while making risky moves that endanger that supposed financial security.
It is indeed hard to imagine, but there are people like that. A person I know had to go back to work after loosing so much in real estate speculation in the Great Recession. Sold a company, made a lot of money, retired early, could have had a very easy life. But I think to him there were always so many others who had more, he felt he needed to keep running to catch up. Often those who have won in business think that since they are so smart they can beat the market too. Some are lucky, most are not. He built a mansion in a area with a lot of very wealthy people. I guess it was easy for him to feel poor in an area like that. He undoubtedly feels poorer now.
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Old 11-04-2014, 03:57 PM   #28
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There are a lot of smart people predicting low stock & bond returns going forward.

My guess is that it will be a lot further up before a fall. At least for stocks. I can imagine modest bond returns.
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Old 11-04-2014, 06:59 PM   #29
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Obviously, your friends are 100% right. Real estate only goes up. History proves that.
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