Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Zweig's take on the current market
Old 11-15-2008, 12:06 AM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
DblDoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,224
Zweig's take on the current market

There is a blue light special for just about every asset class. Don't miss out...

Joe Investor, the Markets Are All Yours - WSJ.com

DD
__________________

__________________
DblDoc is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 11-15-2008, 02:52 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 5,072
The article makes a good point. If one has a quite a number of years to wait for the returns, it probably is a good time to begin entering the market provided one can stomach the volatility.

I think many investors are still worried about that there are more shoes to drop (e.g., Domestic Auto Industry). Plus other businesses (Industries) could be teetering on failure or bankruptcy.
__________________

__________________
chinaco is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2008, 07:58 AM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Midpack's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 11,982
Quote:
Welcome to a buyer's market without buyers.
Exactly what I believe. There will be a turnaround, but even investor's who have the stomach, mostly don't have much cash to invest with. It will be interesting to see what the catalyst is that restores confidence and starts to turn this vicious circle around.
__________________
No one agrees with other people's opinions; they merely agree with their own opinions -- expressed by somebody else. Sydney Tremayne
Retired Jun 2011 at age 57

Target AA: 60% equity funds / 35% bond funds / 5% cash
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
Midpack is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2008, 08:50 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,201
I hope things stay low until rebalancing time.
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2008, 08:50 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
freebird5825's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: East Nowhere, 43N Latitude, NY
Posts: 9,017
thinking out loud...
i've been seriously pondering resuming DCA into a few of my stock MFs. my budget is very tight, but i think i could free up another $300 per month from my credit union savings balance without leaving myself cash poor. it can sit in the bank or it can be invested.
if i have a big $ emergency, i can write a check directly out of my bond funds, as a very last resort.
i am currently putting $600 per month into TE munis to capture a little more of the 30 day yield that VWAHX is pumping out at 5.31% YTD.
i have been holding off on DCA into stock MFs because the "bottom" didn't turn out to be a real bottom on any given day. i was thinking perhaps the election year factor was stronger than it was. bad guess.

it is blue light special time out there...

hmmmm...any comments are welcome. i'm not looking for anyone to make a decision for me, just pondering.
age is 50, AA = 50/50, medium risk investor, MFs only
__________________
"All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them." - Walt Disney
freebird5825 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2008, 08:53 AM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,144
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
I hope things stay low until rebalancing time.
I don't understand why you don't to move your schedule up 6 weeks...
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2008, 09:17 AM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Scott Burns has a new article out about "how bad it is." I was going to post the link but the Asset Builder website was not working. It basically says that the 10 year return if no magic rebound happens before December 31, 2008 is the worst in history. The 1999 - 2008 return is an annual -0.3%. That's worse than any 10 year period including the Great Depression years.

So does that mean the market is really "on sale." It all depends on whether it goes up from here over the next year or two. Dropping another 25% or so would certainly show it isn't on sale. One thing I do know for certain is that I don't know what's going to happen going forward. I also believe no one else does either.

I have a "bare bones" retirement stash in CD's and FDIC insured cash. That is now 50% of my assets. My asset allocation model is 40% cash but I'm not rebalancing to protect a safe but spartan retirement option. I am still contributing into my 401k and SERP so new money is going into S&P500 index funds. These total about 40% of my gross so the amount is not insignificant. I am also still having my mutual fund dividends reinvested into more shares inside my tax deferred plans.

I'm optimistic but planning for a long, cold winter if it happens.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2008, 10:19 AM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
TromboneAl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 11,201
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
I don't understand why you don't to move your schedule up 6 weeks...
Oh! The horror!
__________________
Al
TromboneAl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2008, 10:28 AM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Texarkandy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 1,281
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
I hope things stay low until rebalancing time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
I don't understand why you don't to move your schedule up 6 weeks...
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
Oh! The horror!
Then it would't be called a "schedule" - it would be called "market timing".
__________________
Retired 2009!
Texarkandy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2008, 06:24 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Pasadena CA
Posts: 2,695
Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl View Post
I hope things stay low until rebalancing time.
Just rebalance now?
__________________
T.S. Eliot:
Old men ought to be explorers
yakers is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2008, 06:28 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Pasadena CA
Posts: 2,695
"Welcome to a buyer's market without buyers."

That is where I am, fully invested per EMT. I wish I had some cash I would be buying. I do have $$in the credit union to add to our pensions to cover next years living costs. Hope for a recovery by 2010 then we began drawing down my target retirement fund & DWs Wellesley to add to our pensions. The only way I could be buying now is to increase income which means going back to w@rk.
__________________
T.S. Eliot:
Old men ought to be explorers
yakers is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-15-2008, 07:52 PM   #12
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
lazygood4nothinbum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
so if you wanted to vagabond anyway in developing countries other than this undeveloping country, would this be a good time to sell the personal house even at an all time housing low and assuming a buyer could be found, then vagabond for a few years on cash and invest the rest?
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin

"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
lazygood4nothinbum is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2008, 06:48 AM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Quote:
Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum View Post
so if you wanted to vagabond anyway in developing countries other than this undeveloping country, would this be a good time to sell the personal house even at an all time housing low and assuming a buyer could be found, then vagabond for a few years on cash and invest the rest?
DW and I are hoping to do this now. Our house in Houston is for sale and when/if sold we'll rent something cheaper and smaller. The Houston housing market hasn't fallen apart yet but it's a lot weaker than it was. If the energy markets continue to soften, Houston will see a significant drop. We want to downsize and see little value in owning when we know we won't retire here.

The life of a perpetual traveler has its own "users manual" from Billy and Akaisha. It has had a number of favorable comments made on the forum about it.
__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2008, 03:32 PM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
lazygood4nothinbum's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
just checked billy/akaisha's site. interesting to read how much of a difference moving with the dollar can make. from the kaderli's 25% gain in six weeks article:

Quote:
However, we are no longer in Thailand. Now we are happily residing in Chapala, Mexico. When we arrived six weeks ago, the peso was trading slightly below 10 pesos to the dollar. For our record-keeping purposes we simply rounded it out to 10. Now, a few weeks later, it's over 12.5 to the dollar -- meaning a peso is worth 8 cents. That's a big bump in the purchasing power of our retirement dollars.

To put this into perspective, our rent, which is priced in pesos, has now declined more than 25% in dollar terms. In fact, everything is now 25% off for us. Food, restaurants, transportation, and entertainment have all become less expensive.
so i went back to my now aging visa research where i had listed some of the then current currency exchanges. there i found that since i started studying vagabonding the dollar has strengthened in a number of countries since last i looked...

argentina: us$ now 6% stronger since jan 08
brazil: 8% since aug 07
australia: about 35% since peaked at about 1:1
india: 17% since april 08
south africa: 29% since june 07
thailand: 10% since march 08

i was surprised to find little change in relative value in some places like belize and in czech republic since last i looked (though i think belize is tied to the $).

it makes for an interesting option on a good way to survive this recession come depression or whatever this is. but then, of course, i am continued to be haunted with the fear of what happens after all this liquidity is flooded into the american market while manufacturing has been all but eliminated. what happens if the dollar crashes? might living overseas at that point become very expensive or would the u.s. take the world down with it, thereby maintaining the $ its relative position? how would that play out?
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin

"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
lazygood4nothinbum is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-16-2008, 04:34 PM   #15
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
2B's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Houston
Posts: 4,330
Quote:
Originally Posted by lazygood4nothinbum View Post
i was surprised to find little change in relative value in some places like belize and in czech republic since last i looked (though i think belize is tied to the $).
Most Carib tourist spots tie their money to the US dollar. $1.25 US to the local currency is popular because the inebriated American thinks the $3 Camanian beer is $3 and not $3.75 US.
__________________

__________________
The object of life is not to be on the side of the majority, but to escape finding oneself in the ranks of the insane -- Marcus Aurelius
2B is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
How Much Longer Will the Current Bear Market Last? Retire Soon FIRE and Money 31 10-09-2008 03:20 PM
Current US Economy godoftrading FIRE and Money 3 05-31-2008 06:47 AM
Thoughts on investing in current market climate novaman FIRE and Money 100 03-05-2008 11:56 AM
Current Military trixs Other topics 2 06-23-2006 01:55 PM
The Current Market Value Of Your House Danny Other topics 17 03-25-2006 01:03 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:00 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.