Zweig's take on the current market

[DblDoc]

There is a blue light special for just about every asset class. Don't miss out...

Joe Investor, the Markets Are All Yours - WSJ.com

DD

 

[chinaco]

The article makes a good point. If one has a quite a number of years to wait for the returns, it probably is a good time to begin entering the market provided one can stomach the volatility.

I think many investors are still worried about that there are more shoes to drop (e.g., Domestic Auto Industry). Plus other businesses (Industries) could be teetering on failure or bankruptcy.

 

[Midpack]

Welcome to a buyer's market without buyers.

Exactly what I believe. There will be a turnaround, but even investor's who have the stomach, mostly don't have much cash to invest with. It will be interesting to see what the catalyst is that restores confidence and starts to turn this vicious circle around.

 

[TromboneAl]

I hope things stay low until rebalancing time.

 

[freebird5825]

thinking out loud...
i've been seriously pondering resuming DCA into a few of my stock MFs. my budget is very tight, but i think i could free up another $300 per month from my credit union savings balance without leaving myself cash poor. it can sit in the bank or it can be invested.
if i have a big $ emergency, i can write a check directly out of my bond funds, as a very last resort.
i am currently putting $600 per month into TE munis to capture a little more of the 30 day yield that VWAHX is pumping out at 5.31% YTD.
i have been holding off on DCA into stock MFs because the "bottom" didn't turn out to be a real bottom on any given day. i was thinking perhaps the election year factor was stronger than it was. bad guess.

it is blue light special time out there...

hmmmm...any comments are welcome. i'm not looking for anyone to make a decision for me, just pondering.
age is 50, AA = 50/50, medium risk investor, MFs only

 

[REWahoo]

I hope things stay low until rebalancing time.

I don't understand why you don't to move your schedule up 6 weeks...

 

[2B]

Scott Burns has a new article out about "how bad it is." I was going to post the link but the Asset Builder website was not working. It basically says that the 10 year return if no magic rebound happens before December 31, 2008 is the worst in history. The 1999 - 2008 return is an annual -0.3%. That's worse than any 10 year period including the Great Depression years.

So does that mean the market is really "on sale." It all depends on whether it goes up from here over the next year or two. Dropping another 25% or so would certainly show it isn't on sale. One thing I do know for certain is that I don't know what's going to happen going forward. I also believe no one else does either.

I have a "bare bones" retirement stash in CD's and FDIC insured cash. That is now 50% of my assets. My asset allocation model is 40% cash but I'm not rebalancing to protect a safe but spartan retirement option. I am still contributing into my 401k and SERP so new money is going into S&P500 index funds. These total about 40% of my gross so the amount is not insignificant. I am also still having my mutual fund dividends reinvested into more shares inside my tax deferred plans.

I'm optimistic but planning for a long, cold winter if it happens.

 

[TromboneAl]

I don't understand why you don't to move your schedule up 6 weeks...

Oh! The horror!

 

[Texarkandy]

I hope things stay low until rebalancing time.

I don't understand why you don't to move your schedule up 6 weeks...

Oh! The horror!

Then it would't be called a "schedule" - it would be called "market timing".

 

[yakers]

I hope things stay low until rebalancing time.

Just rebalance now?

 

[yakers]

"Welcome to a buyer's market without buyers."

That is where I am, fully invested per EMT. I wish I had some cash I would be buying. I do have $$in the credit union to add to our pensions to cover next years living costs. Hope for a recovery by 2010 then we began drawing down my target retirement fund & DWs Wellesley to add to our pensions. The only way I could be buying now is to increase income which means going back to w@rk.

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

so if you wanted to vagabond anyway in developing countries other than this undeveloping country, would this be a good time to sell the personal house even at an all time housing low and assuming a buyer could be found, then vagabond for a few years on cash and invest the rest?

 

[2B]

so if you wanted to vagabond anyway in developing countries other than this undeveloping country, would this be a good time to sell the personal house even at an all time housing low and assuming a buyer could be found, then vagabond for a few years on cash and invest the rest?

DW and I are hoping to do this now. Our house in Houston is for sale and when/if sold we'll rent something cheaper and smaller. The Houston housing market hasn't fallen apart yet but it's a lot weaker than it was. If the energy markets continue to soften, Houston will see a significant drop. We want to downsize and see little value in owning when we know we won't retire here.

The life of a perpetual traveler has its own "users manual" from Billy and Akaisha. It has had a number of favorable comments made on the forum about it.

 

[lazygood4nothinbum]

just checked billy/akaisha's site. interesting to read how much of a difference moving with the dollar can make. from the kaderli's 25% gain in six weeks article:

However, we are no longer in Thailand. Now we are happily residing in Chapala, Mexico. When we arrived six weeks ago, the peso was trading slightly below 10 pesos to the dollar. For our record-keeping purposes we simply rounded it out to 10. Now, a few weeks later, it's over 12.5 to the dollar -- meaning a peso is worth 8 cents. That's a big bump in the purchasing power of our retirement dollars.

To put this into perspective, our rent, which is priced in pesos, has now declined more than 25% in dollar terms. In fact, everything is now 25% off for us. Food, restaurants, transportation, and entertainment have all become less expensive.

so i went back to my now aging visa research where i had listed some of the then current currency exchanges. there i found that since i started studying vagabonding the dollar has strengthened in a number of countries since last i looked...

argentina: us$ now 6% stronger since jan 08
brazil: 8% since aug 07
australia: about 35% since peaked at about 1:1
india: 17% since april 08
south africa: 29% since june 07
thailand: 10% since march 08

i was surprised to find little change in relative value in some places like belize and in czech republic since last i looked (though i think belize is tied to the $).

it makes for an interesting option on a good way to survive this recession come depression or whatever this is. but then, of course, i am continued to be haunted with the fear of what happens after all this liquidity is flooded into the american market while manufacturing has been all but eliminated. what happens if the dollar crashes? might living overseas at that point become very expensive or would the u.s. take the world down with it, thereby maintaining the $ its relative position? how would that play out?

 

[2B]

i was surprised to find little change in relative value in some places like belize and in czech republic since last i looked (though i think belize is tied to the $).

Most Carib tourist spots tie their money to the US dollar. $1.25 US to the local currency is popular because the inebriated American thinks the $3 Camanian beer is $3 and not $3.75 US.