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Old 02-15-2018, 08:55 AM   #41
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My grandfather knew exactly when he was going to die. The judge told him.
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Old 02-15-2018, 09:04 AM   #42
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That actually was the case with my dad - arthritis drove him to retire at 62.

But he lived to be 87.

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Exactly, because SS is finally available.
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Old 02-15-2018, 09:14 AM   #43
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The article talked about the observed small bump in mortality right at 62, when 10% of the males take early SS.

If people take SS early because of poor health, you don't expect them all to succumb that very first year of retirement. Surely some may live to 70, or 87 as Amethyst's father. It would be spread out.

The author's point was that perhaps some of the early retirees died because of their new freedom. Get drunk, stoned on MJ, got in car crash? Overdosed on drugs? That kind of things. They don't just blow dough. They blow their life away.
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Old 02-15-2018, 09:59 PM   #44
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Once again pot is getting a bad rap. When you see somebody driving badly, speeding and weaving, that's booze. When you see somebody driving slow in the right lane, that's pot. Hmmm...down here in FL we mostly have people driving slow in the left lane. I guess that's old age.
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Old 02-15-2018, 10:04 PM   #45
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I have never tried MJ, so do not know how I would drive under its influence. But I did drive inebriated, when I was young and stupid. I drove slow and in the right lane, and hoped a cop would not stop me. And my reaction time was lousy, I knew that I was accident prone.
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Old 02-15-2018, 10:51 PM   #46
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Our doctor said most people gain weight when they retire because they’re bored and they eat and drink too much to entertain themselves. I’ve been able to spend a lot more time exercising since retiring. I’ve also eaten more and had more wine than before, so I haven’t lost weight but I am in better shape and my health stats are the best they’ve ever been, except for weight.
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Old 02-16-2018, 09:20 AM   #47
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Originally Posted by NW-Bound View Post
If people take SS early because of poor health, you don't expect them all to succumb that very first year of retirement. Surely some may live to 70, or 87 as Amethyst's father. It would be spread out.
We're still not out of the woods on causation here. Suppose people who are likely to succumb in their 63nd year all take SS?

Interesting correlations are fun to speculate about. But it's still just speculation.

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When you see somebody driving badly, speeding and weaving, that's booze. When you see somebody driving slow in the right lane, that's pot. Hmmm...down here in FL we mostly have people driving slow in the left lane. I guess that's old age.
LOL, I'm going to steal that joke!

(It's not just FL. They do that up here, too.)
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Old 02-16-2018, 11:29 AM   #48
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I'm glad you looked that up. Seriously, I'll bet I've heard that 100 times or more, probably way more, ever since I first brought it up. Now, at last, I can refute it!
My last two dentists both ER'd around age 50. Both are still alive and well, one in his late 70s, the other 50s. Talked to them recently, all very happy and glad to have ER'd.
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Old 02-16-2018, 11:43 AM   #49
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I have never tried MJ, so do not know how I would drive under its influence. But I did drive inebriated, when I was young and stupid. I drove slow and in the right lane, and hoped a cop would not stop me. And my reaction time was lousy, I knew that I was accident prone.
You weren't drunk enough if you knew you were accident prone!
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Old 02-16-2018, 12:19 PM   #50
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My last two dentists both ER'd around age 50. Both are still alive and well, one in his late 70s, the other 50s. Talked to them recently, all very happy and glad to have ER'd.
Other side of the coin:
Our dentist has always loved his work (and he's really great at what he does). He was very lucky in that his daughter followed in his footsteps and took over the practice a few years ago. He is in his 70s and still enjoys dentistry so much (and the chance to help and coach his daughter) that he still comes in to work two or three days a week. We are incredibly lucky to have the pair of them (just them, nobody else in the practice).
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Old 02-16-2018, 12:44 PM   #51
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most early retirements are health related
Is 62 "early"?

Do you have any data to back up that statement, or is it a guess?
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Old 02-16-2018, 12:47 PM   #52
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The article is not as bad as it seems. What happens is that there's a 2% jump in male mortality at 62.
OH MY GOD!! Two percent increase in mortality rates!! Aaaaaahh!!

(I'm not being sarcastic towards you, NW; thanks for taking the time to read the article.)

Quote:
And statistics also show that 10% of males retire when they reach 62.
Ok, so that's one possible explanation of the 2% increase -- although there would be others, such as random sample variation in whatever data set they're looking at. But we know retirement (especially involuntary retirement) can be stressful for people, so it's possible.

One way to investigate would be to determine if you saw a similar spike at 65 or 66 (or whatever the main retirement age is for most men). If not, then the theory goes down the drain. I would've thought the study authors would have pointed that out, if it were present in the data, so my assumption is that it wasn't.
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Old 02-16-2018, 12:51 PM   #53
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Is 62 "early"?

Do you have any data to back up that statement, or is it a guess?
62 is considered early

it was a question on an actuarial exam so it has to be true

(yes there is data, lots of it)
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Old 02-16-2018, 03:40 PM   #54
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. more often, it's texting.
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Once again pot is getting a bad rap. When you see somebody driving badly, speeding and weaving, that's booze.
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Old 02-16-2018, 03:43 PM   #55
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You weren't drunk enough if you knew you were accident prone!
A couple of times in my life, I was drunk "enough". I passed out.

PS. The first time, I was too young to be of driving age.
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Old 02-16-2018, 03:46 PM   #56
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ER Eddie View Post
OH MY GOD!! Two percent increase in mortality rates!! Aaaaaahh!!

(I'm not being sarcastic towards you, NW; thanks for taking the time to read the article.)

Ok, so that's one possible explanation of the 2% increase -- although there would be others, such as random sample variation in whatever data set they're looking at. But we know retirement (especially involuntary retirement) can be stressful for people, so it's possible.

One way to investigate would be to determine if you saw a similar spike at 65 or 66 (or whatever the main retirement age is for most men). If not, then the theory goes down the drain. I would've thought the study authors would have pointed that out, if it were present in the data, so my assumption is that it wasn't.
If there is not a 2% mortality bump at 65/66, then one needs to look further. The reason may be that people who do not need/want to take at 62 can take at any age after that. The distribution may be more evenly spread out from 63 to 70, hence no discernible mortality bump.
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Old 02-16-2018, 04:52 PM   #57
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OK, I was able to read the article as it is reposted on another Web site. See: Is Social Security to blame for so many men dying at 62? | Fox News.

The article is not as bad as it seems. What happens is that there's a 2% jump in male mortality at 62. And statistics also show that 10% of males retire when they reach 62.

“If you don’t go to work, you have more hours of the day to be driving around,” the professor said.

“Medical literature suggests when older men are more sedentary, they’re more likely to be at risk for infection. When they lose their jobs, they increase their smoking rate, linked to the types of deaths we see such as COPD [chronic obstructive pulmonary disease] or respiratory illness.”

The author said she was not advising people to not retire, but rather to maintain their health. Who can argue with that?
Thanks for posting that link (accessible without a paid subscription). For those interested, here is the published study itself.

She seems to have no idea how retirees actually spend their time. How many of us drive aimlessly around? I certainly don't.

What a waste of money ($45,000 grant!) her 'research' was.
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Old 02-16-2018, 04:53 PM   #58
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Once again pot is getting a bad rap. When you see somebody driving badly, speeding and weaving, that's booze. When you see somebody driving slow in the right lane, that's pot. Hmmm...down here in FL we mostly have people driving slow in the left lane. I guess that's old age.


Or waiting for the stop signs to turn green.
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Old 02-16-2018, 05:12 PM   #59
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62 is considered early

it was a question on an actuarial exam so it has to be true

(yes there is data, lots of it)
Well that clears it up...
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Old 02-16-2018, 06:10 PM   #60
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Well that clears it up...
Look at the latest mortality study by the society of actuaries. Annuitants have higher rates of mortality than non annuitants of the same age. Millions of life years of data were analyzed in developing these rates. Not sure what else you need to see.
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