Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Headed for a crash out west?
Old 06-12-2004, 06:32 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 144
Headed for a crash out west?

I'm wondering about some of the areas out west where the economy seems to be based on home construction and service industry. And the economic base seems to be retirement money.

See:

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcont...rns.902d0.html

For someone thinking of relocating from the rust belt to this type of an area, and who still has 10 to 15 years of work before retiring, what does mean for the future in the sunny southwest? Is this growth sustainable? Will property values collapse?
__________________

__________________
Skylark<br />Time flies like an arrow.<br />http://cruisenews.net/independence<br /><br />Poverty is not the absence of goods, but rather the overabundance of desire. <br />- Plato<br />
Skylark is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Headed for a crash out west?
Old 06-12-2004, 07:43 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Headed for a crash out west?

It's sort of a law of the universe that fast growth is never sustainable. * Something always gives. * Call it boom and bust, reversion to the mean, tendency towards equilibrium, or whatever you want -- it's bound to happen.

Probably the closest analogy to present-day Nevada is Texas of the 80's. * Huge boom. * Huge bust. * The bust is often a good time to buy since eventually whatever attracted people there originally is still valid, and the place usually has more sensible growth and a more diversified economy the next cycle.

I was in Vegas just last week. * The traffic was horrible. * Construction was going on everywhere. *
Too many people just about anywhere you went. *Yech.
__________________

__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re:  Gee, Skylark, I thought you were asking...
Old 06-12-2004, 09:41 AM   #3
Moderator Emeritus
Nords's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Oahu
Posts: 26,620
Re:  Gee, Skylark, I thought you were asking...

... about Hawaii in 1991.

The state's three biggest employers are the military, the state govt, and the visitor/convention industry. A top-five is the home construction industry.

When Iraq invaded Kuwait and the Japanese real-estate bubble burst, it got ugly. The tourism industry contracted by 30% and didn't recover for over five years. Judging by our home's value, real estate dropped by nearly 50% over the next five years and didn't really recover until, well, last year.

The military's post-DESERT STORM drawdown piled insult on injury by removing a big part of the rental-housing customers and then clamping off all those military construction $$$ hoses.

Somehow the state's bureaucracy managed to survive, but pressure was so severe that civil-service reform almost broke the govt employee's union. The legacy of the state's cost-cutting years led to 2001's bitter three-week teacher's strike (Hawaii's teachers are govt employees) that still has litigation aftershocks.

I guess the moral of the story is that you have to bring your job with you. CPAs, doctors, nurses, EMTs, firefighters, police, vital appliance maintenance & repair workers all survived. It was a very bad time to be a hotel maid, a luau organizer, or a tour-bus driver. Scott Burns' "entertainment service" providers managed to keep going somehow too, although there were a lot fewer customers.

But, gee, things are MUCH better now, especially if you can afford a median home price of $450K or a median condo of $225K. I toured the MGM's residences and they make Hawaii real estate look like bargains.

OTOH it's probably the casino equivalent of the "joke" about the elderly full-care facility at Howard Johnson's. If MGM will finance your residence's mortgage and an occasional home nursing visit, surely they wouldn't throw out a Scott Burns geezer who spent the equivalent of long-term care prices every year!
__________________
*
*

The book written on E-R.org, "The Military Guide to Financial Independence and Retirement", on sale now! For more info see "About Me" in my profile.
I don't spend much time here anymore, so please send me a PM. Thanks.
Nords is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Headed for a crash out west?
Old 06-12-2004, 09:56 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,409
Re: Headed for a crash out west?

I have relatives in greater Reno - the 'boom' seems to be continiung there also. I remember the 'wonderful' view of the winter smog in the late 90's - very similar to 'Denver' in the early 70's. In both places I suspect the 'foothills' are the preferred location.
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Headed for a crash out west?
Old 06-12-2004, 10:45 AM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 144
Re: Headed for a crash out west?

My strategy is to look for work in a small to medium sized city near a popular national park out west. I work in city government and will probably be looking for a city manager position.

Right now I am afraid of what will happen in Michigan. The factory rat ghetto was was a tough town when manufacturing was booming. I'm afraid to find out what it will be like with the mass layoffs that are happening. Maybe US manufacturing will come back, but I'm concerned and thinking that its time for this rat to desert the sinking ship.

I don't care much for hot-hot-hot weather so I probably will avoid southern areas. I'm am considering MT, WY, UT, ID, ND, SD. But I haven't been to some of those areas yet so its just dreaming now. The Frau will make the final decision anyway so I can chat all I want and it don't really matter what I think. When the final compromise comes down, it will be all her decision.

__________________
Skylark<br />Time flies like an arrow.<br />http://cruisenews.net/independence<br /><br />Poverty is not the absence of goods, but rather the overabundance of desire. <br />- Plato<br />
Skylark is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Headed for a crash out west?
Old 06-13-2004, 06:38 AM   #6
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Headed for a crash out west?

Hello Skylark. In your deliberations, you can skip ND.
I've been all over most of the other western areas you
are considering. Personally, if I didn't hate the cold/snow, all of them would have appeal.

John Galt
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Headed for a crash out west?
Old 06-13-2004, 11:59 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Headed for a crash out west?

Actually I've been to all of those states and didnt like even driving through them.

Wyoming or Montana, I forget which, has about the lowest retirement costs in the country though. Perfect I guess if you dont like people, like lots of cheap land, dont like people, dont mind cool summers and snowy winters, dont like people, and want to live cheaply or have a big ranch.

Although if you like cheap and land there are some places in nevada, texas and alabama (depending on how much heat and humidity you like) that fill the bill.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Headed for a crash out west?
Old 06-13-2004, 12:35 PM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 252
Re: Headed for a crash out west?

There are chunks of Oregon that are cheap (on both sides of the mountains, depending on whether you like it dry or wet.)

I'm not sure what Skylark does for a living, since that could put a crimp into finding a job.
__________________
Whakamole is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Headed for a crash out west?
Old 06-13-2004, 07:01 PM   #9
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,409
Re: Headed for a crash out west?

Shades of 1993 - the newspapers were picking on Cal. 'refuge's' back then taking their cashed out equity and driving up home prices. I gave them a big thumbs up since I was selling my mom's house 45 miles outside of Portland (WA side of Columbia). Californian's probably take it all in with a grain of salt.
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Headed for a crash out west?
Old 06-13-2004, 08:13 PM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 252
Re: Headed for a crash out west?

Quote:
OR-EE-GON?! -- Isn't that where they keep the refugees from the Peoples Republic of Cal-EE-fornee-ahhh??!!

Really depends. There are places that the Californians don't like that are perfectly nice places to live.

I hate em myself, all they do is drive up property prices ("wow, a house that only costs $300K! What a bargain!") and whine about high gas prices for their SUV.
__________________
Whakamole is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Headed for a crash out west?
Old 06-13-2004, 09:29 PM   #11
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 188
Re: Headed for a crash out west?

I recently moved from my home in a small inner-suburb town called Rollingwood, partially surounded by Austin, Texas. During the late 80's bust, property was cheap. That 2300 sq. ft home cost me $135,000 in 1990. I sold it in March within 3 days for $325,000.

The gains were enough to pay for 13 hilltop acres 60 miles west, in the heart of Texas hill country with enough left to build a new 1100 sq ft ranch home, barn, and guest cabin. I am now in negotiations for an additional 12 acres which will use up the remainder of those gains.

Austin has become Californicated by the tech industry. The traffic is unbearable, the cost of living there is about the highest in the state,and most of the schools are facing typical urban ghetto problems.

Now, I live mortgage free, with a commanding view in all directions. My main activity is to read sitting on the wrap- around porch and watch over the longhorns, bison, emus, antelope, llamas, horse and wild game. I lease out grazing rights to maintain an agricultural tax exemption.

I feel that I got out of Austin and found this place in the nick of time. With the market moving sideways, international uncertainy, a shakey recovery, and a dubious future for those entering or reentering the workforce; my plan is to remain right where I am. My cost of living here is 45% less and the weather is cooler and dryer because I am 1500 ft higher than Austin with nearly constant wind coming up the draws and canyon.

My advise is to sell out now while you can get a good price, find good land near a small town where lthe cost of living is less. Don't wait too long. The boomers my age (born in '46) are starting to search for such land and prices are beginning to head up.

__________________
Ol&#039; Rancher<br /><br />I wake up in the morning with nothing to do, and by the end of the day, I feel lucky if I&#039;ve gotten less than half of it done.
Ol_Rancher is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Headed for a crash out west?
Old 06-13-2004, 11:02 PM   #12
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 35
Re: Headed for a crash out west?

How about a correction out east? Just returned from family reunion where VA sibling-in-law reported friend recently purchasing a $750K home with a 15 yr. interest-ony mortgage!! yikes.
__________________
BusyMom is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Headed for a crash out west?
Old 06-14-2004, 05:22 PM   #13
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 802
Re: Headed for a crash out west?

Just a thought, Ol_Rancher? How far are you from top-notch medical facilities?
__________________
Zipper is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Headed for a crash out west?
Old 06-14-2004, 09:01 PM   #14
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 188
Re: Headed for a crash out west?

Zipper,
My place is 4hrs to MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston and less than an hour from San Antonio airport and hospitals. I take my wife, a cancer survivor, to MD Anderson for a couple of days each 3 months for evaluation.
She receives some treatments with cooperating oncologists in Austin (once every 3 weeks at present).
I need to investigate medicine in San Antonio for details. San Antonio has a good reputation but we know Austin well.
__________________

__________________
Ol&#039; Rancher<br /><br />I wake up in the morning with nothing to do, and by the end of the day, I feel lucky if I&#039;ve gotten less than half of it done.
Ol_Rancher is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
where not to retire: key west lazygood4nothinbum Life after FIRE 25 05-11-2007 08:43 PM
Goodbye FIRE, I'm headed to the poorhouse saluki9 FIRE and Money 38 12-28-2006 02:16 PM
Where the next Crash will come.............. Cut-Throat FIRE and Money 58 08-09-2006 01:45 PM
New Energy Bill that appears headed for passage MooreBonds FIRE and Money 9 07-31-2005 11:08 AM
Are CDs headed down? Is condo purchase.. OldAgePensioner FIRE and Money 19 07-05-2005 02:11 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:16 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.