Thanks all! I've canceled the project - I couldn't find any variable speed 20+ SEER HVAC for over $10K anywhere on the net, and they wanted to charge $15K! I'm ok with a company making a profit -- but margins needs to be in the 2-10% range, not over 50%. [ and that wasn't the only component with substantial market - and their argument that the 30% tax credit covers the markup, I find insulting ]
Also, apologies on the typos on the units that confused the discussion. I've been staring at the numbers a lot and took it for granted of certain units being obvious. Yes, 2 KWH meant 2000 KWH, as (clearly) no one is using only 2 KWH/mo. Attached is my usage so far this year as a reference.
And yes, a 3000 KWH solar system doesn't mean it takes care of all your electricity needs - I do trust the physics, in that it does it mean it *could* generate that much electricity. But just as the panels themselves have a certain efficiency (18-22%), the system overall also has an efficiency percentage: it is not producing 24/7. And even when producing, the efficiency changes over seasons (sun tilt angle) and years (degraded components over time by being fully exposed to hot/cold temperature variations; storm damage, etc).
The cases I've read of achieving the "free electricity" do tend to be the $30K+ systems involving 30+ panels. And yes, it's contingent on the arrangement with the corresponding power company -- if you can get a credit on the amount of surplus that the system produces. But the form of that credit is a bit nebulous (i.e. not all power companies are consistent in how the surplus is credited back to you).
That said, I do think it is possible for conditions to exist that tapping into a 401K briefly makes sense (outside of gambling on bitcoin!
no no, don't do that, the risk of retiring homeless is too great ). That condition might be: you pay back into your 401K a loan quickly, such that you end up putting back into the 401K more than you otherwise would have AND whatever you used the loan for ends up in reducing or eliminating an expense (e.g. a more efficient home; be it buying one or improving one). But it's certainly not a sure bet, it's an investment opportunity with risk like all others.
While I've canceled this particular job, I'll still look into similar options. For example, the $20K towards 30 panels (9000 KWH) case, and improving the other components myself over the years.
In my view, the individual panels should run around $300 (I see a range of $78 to $495 on the web -- so I pick a "reasonable quality" average of $300, with even that being a tad high). So even if you double that price to account for frame, wiring, inverters, insurance, tax, install, etc. a 30 panel system is $18K. Add a because-other-people-need-to-eat markup, then the $25K range isn't so unreasonable (plus extra costs associated with the actual power grid connection, which yes may involve some permits, i.e. a couple grand). Tax credit that 30%, and things really might start to make sense... I'll mull it over further.
@OldShooter: I *knew* you'd catch onto the "hang in there" comments!
That's awesome, because yes my gut feel was that it was a sketchy deal -- and I'm glad I asked about it, the perspectives have been great. Clearly good discipline and fairly-proven-successful-retirement-plans include never touching those plans until the proper time/age. So my comment was more towards getting over the expected knee-jerk reaction of "nope, that's not how it's done" taboo. Good practice is also doing things that eliminate expenses, and applying a solar option is (potentially) one of those things -- but it's a lot of factors to consider, as this discussion reveals.
