Longevity risk is not what you may think

[braumeister]

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Originally Posted by Danmar The other thing to keep in mind is that there isn't as much correlation of age at death between family members as you might think. I read somewhere that only about 1/3 of your life expectancy can be attributed to your ancestors?

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Originally Posted by kcowan As a betting man, all bets are off!

A very important point. Since none of us knows when we will go (apart from the random uncle who was told the exact date of his death by the judge), we seem to be driven to manufacture anecdotal evidence from our family history. It may be comforting sometimes, but it's important to remember that it's only anecdotal.

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Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die. -- as often [mis]quoted from the bible

[Luck_Club]

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Originally Posted by braumeister A very important point. Since none of us knows when we will go (apart from the random uncle who was told the exact date of his death by the judge), we seem to be driven to manufacture anecdotal evidence from our family history.

[Koolau]

As mentioned elsewhere, when I retired at 58, a 30 year time-line seemed appropriate. Now, near 70, I'm not so sure.

Was looking at an article on nursing facility costs around the US. The spread from state to state was rather more than I would have guessed. I thought HI would be the highest, but it wasn't - by quite a margin. IIRC, Alaska was worst and HI was only in top 1/3. In any case, since both parents ended their days in such facilities (and spent their last dime there - but came out even!) I'm still kind of penny pinching when I should probably loosen the purse strings a bit. Not so worried about living too long as I am am about needing a LOT more money at the end. YMMV

[razztazz]

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I'm still kind of penny pinching when I should probably loosen the purse strings a bit. Not so worried about living too long as I am am about needing a LOT more money at the end. YMMV

That's about where I am. My plan is to be able to fund a slot at a decent nursing home for 2 years at retail rates. If I'm tapped out at some point I probably won't be in any condition to care much about it. But even though I know at this point I can start spending more on "worldly pursuits and carnal pleasures" I still need to keep the cookie jar loaded for the End Game

[Hermit]

I would much rather eat a TV dinner than get on any airplane to anywhere! I guess I will be fine as I grow older.

[meierlde]

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Originally Posted by Luck_Club OK..So we live to be 90+ What all these articles fail to understand or articulate to the reader is that your money needs decline after a certain point. It is my belief that the most active spending is going to take place before 75. Most of the relatives and people I have known have greatly reduced their spending by that point in life. The energy levels are typically zapped, arthritis and other ailments of aging have started taking their toll. If you haven't already traveled and seen all that you want to at this point, you probably never will. Your desire to redo the bath or kitchen is probably gone as well. So your needs are likely to be for only basic necessities of life. So your need for money has diminished to tv dinners and cable bills.

Spending needs decrease until your last year when medical expenses start climbing rapidly as the body more or less wears out.

[harley]

I'll need to save a small amount for later in life. DW and I were in the Costco liquor store yesterday, and I saw a $3000 bottle of brandy. I told her the only way I'd spend that much on a bottle of liquor is if I get to the point where I'm so old and sick that I'm going to take a bunch of pills and check out, I think I'll wash them down with a bottle of that. She said that with my luck I'd throw up both the expensive booze and the pills, then have to shoot myself for wasting that much money.

[NW-Bound]

Your wife is mean!

[Fedup]

I think she doesn't want him to waste money.

[ls99]

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Originally Posted by harley I'll need to save a small amount for later in life. DW and I were in the Costco liquor store yesterday, and I saw a $3000 bottle of brandy. I told her the only way I'd spend that much on a bottle of liquor is if I get to the point where I'm so old and sick that I'm going to take a bunch of pills and check out, I think I'll wash them down with a bottle of that. She said that with my luck I'd throw up both the expensive booze and the pills, then have to shoot myself for wasting that much money.

She is a realist.

[Live And Learn]

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Originally Posted by Luck_Club OK..So we live to be 90+ What all these articles fail to understand or articulate to the reader is that your money needs decline after a certain point. <snip>. So your need for money has diminished to tv dinners and cable bills.

Not sure about this. Once I hit 70 I plan to start hiring people to do alot of things I do myself today (house cleaning, yard work, repair work, etc). I may even hire a part time driver.

ETA: I didn't see Youbet's post before I posted. Totally agree !

[Souschef]

I agree about hiring people. I recently had a rotary vent added to the roof of my shed. I hired a 20 something man to do it.
But 70 is the new 50. I am 78, and I drive and fly.

[boatfishandnature]

Just to add a bit of data to the discussion:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

[Chuckanut]

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Originally Posted by harley I'll need to save a small amount for later in life. DW and I were in the Costco liquor store yesterday, and I saw a $3000 bottle of brandy. I told her the only way I'd spend that much on a bottle of liquor is if I get to the point where I'm so old and sick that I'm going to take a bunch of pills and check out, I think I'll wash them down with a bottle of that. She said that with my luck I'd throw up both the expensive booze and the pills, then have to shoot myself for wasting that much money.

Interesting. I would not spend $3000 on a bottle of brandy, but if I did it would be now when I am still in good enough healthy to enjoy every expensive sip. Better, I would spend the $3000 on good times with a good woman, to heck with brandy.

[googily]

As a widow (50) with no children, my real goal is to spend every penny. [emoji4] But while I have never expected to see 90, the people who I was sure would live that long (mom, DH) didn't get anywhere close, so I now fear I'm going to even out the family average by sticking around way too long.

[OldShooter]

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Originally Posted by Luck_Club ... What all these articles fail to understand or articulate to the reader is that your money needs decline after a certain point. ...

Probably true, but health and inflation are the wild cards.

I am looking at it a little differently: I believe that much of our spending can be managed, so if inflation gets too bad or if investments don't yield what we expect, we can cut back fairly easily. For example, in 2016 we spent about $40K on travel and about $25K charitable. Totally discretionary. We have three vehicles, her car, my car, and my truck. So we go down to two. We have a lake home with taxes and other expenses of maybe $10K a year. That's been a good investment and we would be very reluctant to lose it, but if necessary we can sell it to cut off the costs and pick up several hundred $K in proceeds. So (1) we have been phenomenally lucky and (2) we have a lot of flexibility going forward. I don't worry about how long we'll live.