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Old 05-04-2016, 04:41 PM   #21
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62-ish here. My rough calculation is that I'll gain about $20/ mo for every month I wait, so I might postpone a few months, but working to 66 (my FRA) wasn't happenin'!
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Old 05-04-2016, 04:52 PM   #22
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What politicians might do notwithstanding, SS will "run out of" money in about 2035, so a bit longer than ten years.
SS won't "run out of money". It will, however, exhaust its SS trust fund around 2033; and, will then only cover approximately 75% to 79% of SS amounts based upon estimated payroll contributions.
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Old 05-04-2016, 04:59 PM   #23
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I found out 2 of my relatives took social security recently at age 62 instead of full retirement age or older.

One of them said their FA told them ss is struggling and will not be around in the next 10 years or so. i have heard that comment for the past 15 years and it is still around. ....
Well if they are living on SS that they take early at 62 then that means that they are not living on their savings or investments so the FA has more money to manage and earn fees off. I'm guessing that your relatives never considered that angle.
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Old 05-04-2016, 05:03 PM   #24
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OP here.

I ran the numbers taking ss at age 62 and at full retirement age in firecalc and Fidelity Income Planner.

Both planners calculated 100% success with either option. However with Firecalc there was an average balance at the end of 16,000 more with full retirement age. (not much money in the big picture -- 35 years)

With Fidelity Income Planner if I take ss at full retirement age my success grade was 97. If I take ss at age 62 the grade went up to 102. The higher the grade the more likely the money will last throughout retirement.

This was very interesting since I have always thought ss at full retirement age was the best situation. I might take it at age 62 instead.
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Old 05-04-2016, 06:17 PM   #25
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62-ish here. My rough calculation is that I'll gain about $20/ mo for every month I wait, so I might postpone a few months, but working to 66 (my FRA) wasn't happenin'!
As long as you recognize that you don't have to start SS when you stop working... many people live off of savings from when they stop working until they start SS.
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Old 05-04-2016, 06:35 PM   #26
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We plan to take at 62 to diversify our retirement income steams and minimize draw downs on the portfolio, the money we have the most control over.
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Old 05-04-2016, 08:30 PM   #27
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Plan to wait until 70. My birthday is in July though, so only need to wait a few more months.

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Old 05-04-2016, 08:35 PM   #28
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Due to the GPO (Government Pension Offset) my young wife will not receive a survivor benefit after I die, and she will not receive benefits of her own, since she has never paid into social security. So my plan is to start benefits at 62 and avoid pulling that much from the nest egg, which will then remain for her when I'm gone.
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Old 05-05-2016, 05:37 AM   #29
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One of them said their FA told them ss is struggling and will not be around in the next 10 years or so.
IMO, this FA is a quack. Yes, unless Congress stops kicking the can and actually decides to work together and compromise for a change, at some point 15-20 years from now, the "surplus" (such as it is) is expected to be exhausted and SS will not be able to pay 100% in promised benefits just from the incoming SS tax revenues. (Right around the time I'll start collecting.... how convenient.)

But even the worst case analysis suggests SS will continue to be able to pay out 70-75% of benefits after that time. Too many scaremongers act like SS will belly up entirely and payments will go to zero. My crystal ball is murky as hell but I'm pretty darned sure there is almost *no* political will to let that happen.

That said, folks who are under 55* have reason for concern and additional reason to hedge their bets in terms of retirement income. And if they want to *assume* they will get none in the spirit of very conservative financial planning, so be it. But it's extremely unlikely they get nothing.

* -- I say 55 because that seems to be the "magic number" where most SS reform proposals don't ask anyone above that age to share in any of the pain of SS reform in terms of changes in benefits coming to them.
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Old 05-05-2016, 06:40 AM   #30
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A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

I started a few months after 62nd birthday ( I waited because I was still w*rking),

2 factors for me: 1. If I didn't take it, I'd have to dig into my savings further. I have no pensions. Just my nut,
and,

2. someone puts the money on the table,I pick it up. They might not have it later. Or may change the rules.

I had this same conversation with a cousin who has a teacher's pension and so does his DW, so they don't need the cash now, and are waiting. That too makes sense, for them.

I expect to live beyond the break-even, but who knows? If I do, then I've saved more of my savings, if I don't, well...then I win...sort of...I guess...
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Old 05-05-2016, 06:48 AM   #31
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I am waiting until 70 for several reasons.
  • I should not need the money, therefore, I can wait.
  • Longevity insurance. If I life to be 90, and my investment portfolio goes to crap, it's nice to have SS.
  • If I get married at 70, the DGF (wife by then for SS purposes) will have a higher spousal benefit and death benefit.
  • Once SS kicks in, it should make up for any inflation losses, if any, in my income stream.
  • I can use it as a LTC insurance policy. It will likely pay more than many LTC policies.
  • If SS is going to be changed, I can signup faster than a law can be passed.
  • If I get bad news from the Dr., I can sign up right away.

SS will ALWAYS have the money. It can be taxed, it can be printed, it can be given in script. The very last of my worries that SS "runs out of money".

I would be more concerned that the minimum wage was $50+ an hour, and everyone was living a $50 lifestyle, and I only was living on a $20 an hour lifestyle with my pension and investments.
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Old 05-05-2016, 08:01 AM   #32
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This FA is definitely a quack. SS won't run out on 2034, they will just pay 30% less if Congress does nothing from now (2016) to 2034. If Congress raise taxes for social security, it will cover full 100% payments beyond 2034.
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Old 05-05-2016, 08:40 AM   #33
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This FA is definitely a quack. SS won't run out on 2034, they will just pay 30% less if Congress does nothing from now (2016) to 2034. If Congress raise taxes for social security, it will cover full 100% payments beyond 2034.
I can't see SS paying any less. I can maybe see the CPI being adjusted, but not any 'cut'.

In any case, there are a lot more things that are entirely more possible. I would worry more about these...
  • Things like high inflation, when you have no COLA adjustments in your income stream.
  • The stock market stagnating for 20+ years, like Japan.
  • Living in a neighborhood that becomes dangerous.
  • The price of a lap dance becoming too prohibitive to invest in.
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Old 05-05-2016, 08:52 AM   #34
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I don't need the income early and DW and I are in good health so the plan is to wait until 70. We see it as a future inflation adjustment.
Same for us. Currently 66 -if defer to 70 will be 42% higher than at 65. My company pension started at 62 and divs make up the rest of our spending. The national pension plan in Canada is actuarially sound as well and the payments not as generous as in the US. Really not material to our financial situation.
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Old 05-05-2016, 09:09 AM   #35
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SS won't "run out of money". It will, however, exhaust its SS trust fund around 2033; and, will then only cover approximately 75% to 79% of SS amounts based upon estimated payroll contributions.

Thus the quotes...
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Old 05-05-2016, 09:15 AM   #36
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As long as you recognize that you don't have to start SS when you stop working... many people live off of savings from when they stop working until they start SS.


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Originally Posted by daylatedollarshort View Post
We plan to take at 62 to diversify our retirement income steams and minimize draw downs on the portfolio, the money we have the most control over.

This... My four-legged stool: SS, small pension (the short leg...), retiree health insurance, and IRA. My spend down would be larger/faster than I'm comfortable with...

My goal was to get the hell out as soon as possible.
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Old 05-05-2016, 09:22 AM   #37
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What four-legged stool?

My plan has always been to hop on my own stash as a pogo stick (it does bounce like one!). Then, SS is a shorter leg, like a training wheel for kids' bikes, except it is one-sided.

Speaking of bike's training wheels, I still remember my first bike and the time my father removed the training wheels. He removed one side first to see how I did. When he saw that if I could manage to always lean on the correct side then I would not need any training wheel, he removed the remaining one.
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Social Security at age 62
Old 05-05-2016, 09:42 AM   #38
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Social Security at age 62

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This FA is definitely a quack.

Ya think maybe the FA might benefit if the client takes SS early and thus keeps more invested with the FA?

;-)
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Old 05-05-2016, 10:09 AM   #39
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Planning on 62; however, will wait and see whether it is bettter to start taking from 401k or SS at 62. About 3 years to go before I decide.
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Social Security at age 62
Old 05-05-2016, 10:12 AM   #40
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Social Security at age 62

My crystal ball says SS will not go away and if the payout decreases, it will be only by a very slight amount. There are just too many people whose main source of income is SS. The government won't want to create a bunch of old homeless people who are starving to death.


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