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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-10-2005, 08:07 PM   #21
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

>ES's board is more likely to discuss LBYM issues and index investing details.

Where is ES' board? I know about raddr & Intercest and find them of some interest but not as compelling as this place. But LBYM is my overall approach and I do index as a basic investment approach so I might be interested in such a board,but oddly enough I have not found it on the web so far. A Google search on ES eearly retirement board gets me back to Dory.
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-10-2005, 08:37 PM   #22
 
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

I know it probably gets tiresome to the veterans of this board, but could someone post links for the boards noted below?* I can google a couple, but it's difficult without the board name.*

(Is there a board that specializes in loser-drifter wannabees?)

Quote:
Originally Posted by - SG
In addition to Dory's boards, you can find Retire early boards run by intrcst, raddr and ES.* Each of these boards has a unique personality because of the small group of posters that dominate each board.* *raddr's board is more likely to have detailed discussions of portfolio allocation and sector performance, valuation, etc.* ES's board is more likely to discuss LBYM issues and index investing details.* intrcst's board is filled with retirement board politics and history of the retire early board's history.*
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-10-2005, 08:53 PM   #23
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Try NoFeeBoards.com! (ES) and The Retire Early Homepage (intercst)to find the other message board. Search for Raddr's Early Retirement and Financial Strategy Board or Raddr-pages.com.(Raddr)

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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-10-2005, 09:45 PM   #24
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Back during WWII, the Brits were very concerned about the losses they were sustaining in the Battle of Britain.* They knew that they could not keep losing planes at the rate they were losing them and defend the island successfully.* *So, they sent a bunch of geeks to study the problem.* They dispersed to various fighter bases around the country and began interviewing the pilots as they returned from their missions.* They asked about tactics and mistakes they made etc.* *They examined the planes that returned – counted the bullet holes, where they were, how far apart they were etc.* Nothing.* Losses kept mounting.* Finally, one bright geek had an inspiration.* They were looking at the wrong planes! They needed to be looking at the planes that DIDN’T make it back.* *So they started looking at wrecked and shot down planes and pilots instead.* Information on the failed flights was analyzed and modifications were made.* Results improved.* *This WWII effort spawned a whole new field of academic inquiry “Operations Research”* (as in Flight Operations).* Today you can get a PhD from any B School in the country in OR.

My point is, it would be nice to have a little OR on ER.* I realize that it is a pretty difficult thing to achieve in a format such as a message board.* Probably impossible. I feel a lot of empathy and concern for the Young Dreamers I see posting here.* Seems to me that many are quite naïve about what’s in store for them over time.* I think a lot of them think that they are going to jump into ER in 15 or 20 years with the same frame of reference they now have in their 20’s and 30’s.* *But as the old pharts know, them bones gets to aching!* Life impedes.*

I think Martha and I are in a very similar place.* I have not yet jumped the fence into retirement but I am getting close and my mind is increasingly wandering to the other side of that fence.* What’s it going to be like?* Where are the land mines?* How is life going to change?* *What distinguishes successful retirement from crashing and burning, like those WWII fly boys?*

I think Mrs. D and I are within 6-24 months of jumping the fence.* Like Martha, we are spending more and more time mentally in that other world.* Frankly, my top ten list is a compendium of* fears that anyone contemplating the leap should take into consideration.*
I like FunGoals additions* to the yips list, too.* *Mrs. D and I are beginning to have some conversations which I confess I am avoiding.* Like –where are we going to live?* Should we move?* The house needs to be fixed up if we are going to stay here, can we afford it? What are you going to do every day?* Where do you see yourself in 5 years?* Your not just going to sit around all day and do nothing, are you?* Are we going to be poor? Will we be able to pay the bills when we are old?* Will we be able to travel?* Where do you want to travel?* Good questions, all.* Sometimes I just sit and stare at her because I don’t have all the answers.* Reduced to silence, so to speak.* Currently, there is no plan.* There is no coherent vision of “where we will be” in 5 years.* *The money thing is a good excuse to keep working and postpone jump day and postpone answering these questions.* Building a cushion while the sun shines is a legitimate thing, after all.* But the clock is clearly ticking….and the question remains in the back of my mind – Do Mrs. D and I fit the profile of the pilots that made it back in one piece—bullet holes and all – or, do we fit the profile of the crashed and burned , whatever that is?*

So maybe this isn't the place to be wondering about these things.* Guess everybody is on his or her own and only jumping in the water will tell the tale.* What's the magic number?.* There is no magic number.* But there sure is a lot more than dollar bills to be dealt with in this decision.* *Oh, well. Will just keep noodling on these things. Got to.

Donner
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-10-2005, 10:20 PM   #25
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donner

I think Mrs. D and I are within 6-24 months of jumping the fence. Like Martha, we are spending more and more time mentally in that other world. Frankly, my top ten list is a compendium of fears that anyone contemplating the leap should take into consideration.
I like FunGoals additions to the yips list, too. Mrs. D and I are beginning to have some conversations which I confess I am avoiding. Like –where are we going to live? Should we move? The house needs to be fixed up if we are going to stay here, can we afford it? What are you going to do every day? Where do you see yourself in 5 years? Your not just going to sit around all day and do nothing, are you? Are we going to be poor? Will we be able to pay the bills when we are old? Will we be able to travel? Where do you want to travel? Good questions, all. Sometimes I just sit and stare at her because I don’t have all the answers. Reduced to silence, so to speak. Currently, there is no plan. There is no coherent vision of “where we will be” in 5 years. The money thing is a good excuse to keep working and postpone jump day and postpone answering these questions. Building a cushion while the sun shines is a legitimate thing, after all. But the clock is clearly ticking….and the question remains in the back of my mind – Do Mrs. D and I fit the profile of the pilots that made it back in one piece—bullet holes and all – or, do we fit the profile of the crashed and burned , whatever that is?
Great post Donner.

With less than three weeks to go before jumping the fence, I've been dealing with some of the same questions. I've run the numbers so many times that my Excel spreadsheet is suffering from fiduciary fatigue and excessive wear. Been through Firecalc so many times I was afraid the flame would go out. It finally boiled down to this: I'm finally "there" ("here"?) financially and I still don't know the answers to all those questions about what life is like on the other side. But I'm ready to cross that fence and see what it's really like over there. We all know life is uncertain but I do know for certain that I'm ready for a new adventure.

So on May 27, I'm strapping on my flight suit and taking off on a flight I've been looking forward to for a long, long time. Yes, I could crash and burn, but I don't think I will or I wouldn't ever climb into the cockpit.

Whatever happens, I'm doing what I want to do from here on out (assuming of course, it's OK with DW).

REW, ready to kick the tires and light the fires
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-10-2005, 10:31 PM   #26
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

REW--

Ready for a new adventure. I guess that is the key to the whole thing. Sounds like you are reved up and good to go. Keep your flaps up and good luck! Keep posting on your thoughts as you get to take off speed. Let us know what it is like.

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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 12:03 AM   #27
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Donner, I may have missed it, but have you ever said anything about how old you are, what you do for a living-(my guess is bureaucrat of the word using variety); what sort of pension you have or don't have, or anything else that would put your well crafted posts in a more personal context?

To me they read like an Op-Ed piece, or "something to get some discussion going."

Mikey
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 05:28 AM   #28
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Donner
not quite sure how to insert a link, this address is to an article written by Paul Farrell.
http://www.geocities.com/TheTropics/...aulfarrell.htm

One point in the article has always struck me:

"Lesson #3: When it's time to go ... you'll know

The moment will come when you know, deep in your soul. It'll be crystal clear, after weeks, even years of thinking about it. A sudden turning point! You're a teacher. Nurse. Programmer. Lawyer. Doing stuff you can do well until you die. But you're not happy, not fulfilled.
You want to write a book. Travel the world. Be a pastry cook. Run a flower shop. Something tugs at you and cries to break free. It can't be denied. But you hold back. You'll know when to go - suddenly and when you least expect it. Today? Trust me, you'll know."

Yes there is the fear of the leap, and every question that you have asked is one to consider. But when it is time, you'll know.

Uncledrz

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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 06:10 AM   #29
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Donner,
Good post and question. I agree with you that you can learn from failures and from successes. I also think people generallly don't like to talk about their failures. How often do you hear that from a friend "Boy, I lost a bundle on xyz stock."

If you go to a discussion board about a particular pick up truck most of the post you will read is about problems with the truck and you would get the idea the truck is a lemon. How many times would a person who hasn't had any problems post that it works great. It is the reverse on this board. If you were unsuccessful in ER you would post and leave.

Another aspect -- and I'm guessing here -- is that most of the people on this board are men who seem to have a technical and managerial background. If it was domintated by women with social services backgrounds there would be a different feel to the board.

Well its 7:30am - time for a shower and off to work.
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 07:09 AM   #30
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Layed off - the boom and thunder days, beat the Ruskies to Space days were long gone, new technology pace was down to bumping along, evolving slowly, and the enthusiasm to move across country to chase the rabbit wasn't there anymore. I was a wagonmaker and the auto is in it's infancy.

The light bulb had come on - the full mental adjustment took about a year.

If manned space lights up to go back to the Moon and or Mars - I'll beg to get a job as a janitor to participate.

Time and tide - cycle of history - all that stuff.
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 07:23 AM   #31
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Hmmm

Thirty years of sporadic failure - being a legend in my own mind/total smuck - got me to: De Gaul and the Norwegian widow mantra.

Bogle, Ben Graham, DCA, balanced index funds.

I only mention the tip of the iceberg here, some penthouse living, sports cars, etc. - not the 'dry' periods recouping bad investments - or recounting 'now here was one of my super dumb investment moves.'

Heh, heh, heh

THAT - would be toooo painful - just grateful of lessons learned.
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 07:57 AM   #32
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

"I feel a lot of empathy and concern for the Young Dreamers I see posting here.* Seems to me that many are quite naïve about what’s in store for them over time.* I think a lot of them think that they are going to jump into ER in 15 or 20 years with the same frame of reference they now have in their 20’s and 30’s.* *But as the old pharts know, them bones gets to aching!* Life impedes.* "

Donner,

I enjoyed your post.* Would you be kind enough to expand upon the 'what's in store for them over time' and keeping the 'same frame of reference'?* Are you referring to something other than starting families, hard knocks, cracking bones, and the general changing of priorities/interests?*

Thanks,

Chris
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 11:54 AM   #33
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Quote:
Originally Posted by uncledrz
. . . One point in the article has always struck me:

"Lesson #3: When it's time to go ... you'll know

The moment will come when you know, deep in your soul. It'll be crystal clear, after weeks, even years of thinking about it. A sudden turning point! . . .
While I'm sure that this is true for some people, I don't think I've ever felt that kind of certainty about anything . . . certainly not about retirement.

I recall hearing similar advice during my life about getting married: "You'll know when the one right person in the world comes along." If I had waited for that kind of certainty I would still be looking and I've been very happily married for over 30 years.

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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 12:09 PM   #34
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

SG said: I recall hearing similar advice during my life about getting married: "You'll know when the one right person in the world comes along." If I had waited for that kind of certainty I would still be looking and I've been very happily married for over 30 years.

Hey, I had that feeling of certainty. Now, in entering my second marrige I had less certainty, more maturity and more happiness. Been working for 12 years now. And its been good financially too. Certainty is not only overrated, its sometimes misleading.
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 12:28 PM   #35
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Same girlfriend for 29 years.

Heh, heh, heh, heh, heh.

Duh! What is certainty
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 12:59 PM   #36
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

www.nofeeboards.com
www.retireearlyhomepage.com
www.raddr-pages.com
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 01:04 PM   #37
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Quote:
Originally Posted by newellcr
"I feel a lot of empathy and concern for the Young Dreamers I see posting here.* Seems to me that many are quite naïve about what’s in store for them over time.* I think a lot of them think that they are going to jump into ER in 15 or 20 years with the same frame of reference they now have in their 20’s and 30’s.* *But as the old pharts know, them bones gets to aching!* Life impedes.* "

Donner,

I enjoyed your post.* Would you be kind enough to expand upon the 'what's in store for them over time' and keeping the 'same frame of reference'?* Are you referring to something other than starting families, hard knocks, cracking bones, and the general changing of priorities/interests?* Thanks, Chris
Donner, as a younger cat this stuck out to me, as well. Please expound on it if you would, please? Or anyone else, for that matter...
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 04:05 PM   #38
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

The uncertainty of "making the commitment" to ER is real. However, the oppurtunity cost of putting off personal freedoms and fulfillment in a self directed life outside of working on someone elses agenda in the effort of earning and spending is immutably real. As we have all heard, no one regrets that they just didn't spend enough time at the office when they are surrounded by family in their death bed... I suggest that one of the prerequisites to full ownership of ones life is the personal courage to live it well in uncertain times.
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 04:39 PM   #39
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
Maybe, I'm not old enough (close to 54), but I have the same frame of reference that I had in my 20's and 30's. Granted my tastes are a bit more expensive now, but my places that I want to travel to are longer now than when I was 30. I want to try more exotic foods, destinations, and experiences now than ever before.

This may come from Traveling a lot while I was working, and experiencing new things. Always planning the next trip and looking down the road. Once a homebody always a homebody.

When my joints have frozen up for good - maybe mid 80's or so, I'll be able to sit in a rocker on the porch in the evenings with a Single Malt Scotch Manhatten and recount the 'good old days' - But until then, I'm gonna make memories for the next 30 years (God Willing) - Big Fish, Big Lies and the pictures to prove them. 8)
Cut-Throat, I hope that all of your wishes come to pass. Truly!
I too am planning new adventures, which of course will be duly
reported here And, I've done my share of traveling. However,
at age 60, I no longer care to travel as much, and the main
ER activities I had looked forward to are gone. It's mostly
health issues, and anything I am dealing with can strike anyone
at any age. Some are just luckier than others. I have no complaints.
My only point is that lots of youngsters don't get it. Life is short.
Whatever time you get is luck. Make the most of it, because
at any time (unknown to you) it could all be over.

JG
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board
Old 05-11-2005, 05:35 PM   #40
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Re: Top Ten Things We Don't See On The Board

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donner
My point is, it would be nice to have a little OR on ER.
Are we not reading any of the books?* Zelinski, Terhorst, Burns, Bernstein... et al?* What about the Trinity study or any of the lifestyle gurus?* I think Dominguez' example is a pretty potent warning on the dangers of ER via Treasuries.* I think that there are plenty of authors who've done post-mortems on failed ERs.* (In fact, any author who publishes a book while in ER should probably do their own autopsy.)* What are you looking for, a peer-reviewed article in the Journal of Operations Research?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donner
I realize that it is a pretty difficult thing to achieve in a format such as a message board.* Probably impossible.
I've done a few autopsies on friends of mine who just don't get it (or who think I don't get it either).* Cut-Throat, John Galt, TH, & Unclemick have done the same.* Sorry that I don't have an advanced OR degree but I have taken a few courses on the subject, and I think that TH has educated us all on the business science of conducting studies.* So again, what are you looking for?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Donner
I feel a lot of empathy and concern for the Young Dreamers I see posting here.* Seems to me that many are quite naïve about what’s in store for them over time.* I think a lot of them think that they are going to jump into ER in 15 or 20 years with the same frame of reference they now have in their 20’s and 30’s.
Hey, Cut-Throat, I'm with you.* Geez, Donner, I'm only 44 and you're depressing ME.* Lighten up a little.* I entered ER in the same frame of mind as my 20s, and many of my alleged friends tell me that I still have that level of maturity.*

As we pointed out on your inaugural post, this is not rocket science.* Determine your expenses.* Save 25x that amount for a 4% SWR.* Take a sabbatical or unpaid leave or a long vacation and test-drive ER.* Check those expense numbers one or two more times (perhaps with TH's handy appliance-replacement budget numbers) and figure out if your portfolio is adequately capitalized.* If it is and you feel that you can handle it, then ER.* If it works, great!* If not, make a spouse compromise or volunteer at a charity or even get another (*gasp*) job.*

But don't sit there fully employed, especially with YOUR impression of non-discretionary expenses, and expect to have the credibility to complain about ER naivete, concern, or empathy.* We're doing just fine.* Come on in-- the water's great.* Do it while you have enough life left to enjoy it...
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