Re: A New Twist on Firecalc
Yup, the years of contribution affecting success rate is a limitation. *Another item that it doesn't account for that improves the odds are that you would likely be applying some judgement on whether to retire based on the value of your portfolio. *If the markets had a 1929 crash just before you planned to retire you would probably hang on to the job for a little while longer.
The same is true of planned large purchases such as retirement homes. *If my portfolio has done very poorly and is at half it's original value I won't be buying that retirement pad right then. *I might continue to travel and keep low budget for a few more years. *What I do also is look at the detailed results and look at the failing portfolios and check out the value just prior to the year that the big purchase (or retirement decision) would be made. *It is often down significantly. *Removing those, which you would hopefully do, improves the odds.
Hyperborea - A Perpetual Traveller in Training<br />Patriotism is your conviction that this country is superior to all other countries because you were born in it. George Bernard Shaw<br />The world is not black and white. More like black and grey. Graham Greene