For the record, the author of the link provided by TH
published the article on Feb 3, 1977. His expected
inflation adjusted average annual return was -8%
the optimistic was -5% to 1% and the pessimistic was
-18% for the next 5 years.
The actual average annual return for the 5 year period
was 12.4%. If you assume an average inflation of 3%
over the period, the inflation adjusted average return
The really interesting thing about the article was how
wrong he was!!
I agree with TH that he should have pulled this off his website.