Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-01-2004, 02:05 PM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 909
Send a message via ICQ to Marshac Send a message via AIM to Marshac Send a message via Yahoo to Marshac
Foolish economic girly-man

What a wonderful picture of the future is painted in the last two paragraphs:

http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2004/mft04090118.htm

What do you guys think about Bill's predictions about the future?
__________________

__________________
Marshac is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-01-2004, 03:08 PM   #2
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

Well, I think I basically a pessimist and agree with him.

Although, I have always been wrong in the past and hope that I am now.

An example, when Reagan was elected in 1980, we had bigtime deficeits and 20% prime interest and Bush Sr. called it voodoo economics (which it was) somehow we survived in spite of borrowing huge amounts of money. And then we actually had a surpluss in the Clinton Administration.

So I am putting my money not where my mouth is. I am investing in Stocks and Bonds. But being over 50 now and having faced much more challenging events ( really serious), the money issue is small potatoes.
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-01-2004, 03:17 PM   #3
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

I love the "girlie men" line, but it will lose it's punch if
overused (not there yet).

I basically agree with Bill, except over all and long term
I think it will be much much worse. I believe a totally
free capitalistic system can solve almost any problem.
Yet, every day we move further and further away.
And, it doesn't matter which party is in power.
Our decline slows a bit with the Republicans, but the direction never varies. I have no hope of ever returning
to the principles on which this country was founded.
Thus, I enter a vote of "no confidence" in the future
economic viability of the USA. Actually, this was a major
reason I ERed. I went "on strike" just like my fictional
doppelganger.

John Galt
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-01-2004, 10:48 PM   #4
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
BigMoneyJim's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: DFW
Posts: 2,627
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

Being young dreamers with income, savings and low or no debt, it may acutally benefit us for everything to crash in the next 5-10 years since we'll be in the best position to take advantage of it. Then again we'll all probably be bailing our parents out of the mess....

Well, nothing more I can do about it, so I think I'll quit worrying for a while.
__________________
BigMoneyJim is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 05:13 AM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 165
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

In term of economic outlook, I tend to be a pessimist. So I agree with the article (girlie economic woman? whatever). Even last year(?) when the market was making double digit return and some economic "experts" are slapping each other backs and welcome the return of the bull, I am still not convinced that the bear is behind us.

I worry about jobless economy/increasing unemployment, increasing bankruptcy rate caused by increasing interest rate, and baby boomers going into retirement with little/no savings (it could mean increased tax for the working population?).

Of course there is a silver lining if the economy burns down: house price will be cheaper, stocks will be attractive again (but if we have no jobs, where is the income to buy stocks, house, savings etc? What about deflation?). Don't know about you, but "jobless recovery" seems a little oxymoron-ish to me (how can economy recovers, if people got no job? Call me simple woman, but I like KISS principle).

All I can do to prepare is to have savings, pay off all debts, buy when market is at the lowest, and dig in for the crazy rides ahead.

Jane
__________________
Jane is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 09:20 AM   #6
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
retire@40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 2,670
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

My, my, so many pessimists!!! I always get a kick out of statements like the one in the article ďI'm afraid that the $200 billion-plus that Americans have cashed out of their houses has been spent.Ē Spent on what? Another house? Stocks and mutual funds? So what!!! Itís just money movement in our economy.

There have been pessimists in this country since 1776 and they have all been wrong long-term. I can understand being a pessimist in Sudan or North Korea, but how can you be a pessimist in the USA? I have always been an optimist, and frankly, Iím very surprised that there are so many pessimists on an ER forum. Do you think people can ER just as easily in other countries?

And whatís this ďjobless recovery?Ē I donít understand how people can have no ďjobĒ in the United States. From my experience with the public in the work I do, Iíve generally found that people without a job are in that situation by choice. Itís usually laziness and/or stupidity or they have retired. I am all for ER by choice, but I donít believe pessimists who say they want to work but canít find a job. If you canít find a job, then make a job! I saw on TV this morning a lady who created a job for herself by taking leftover ocean-floor mud from scientific expeditions that has always just been thrown away and turning it into pottery for sale. Now thatís an optimist!

As Sir Winston Churchill said, ďA pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.Ē
__________________
No man is free who is not master of himself. --- Epictetus
Enjoy Yourself (It's Later Than You Think). --- Guy Lombardo
retire@40 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 09:56 AM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

A pessimist shows up at the Pearly Gates and tells St. Pete - see I told you so. An optimist arrives and says - I understand you're hiring.
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 03:18 PM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mesa
Posts: 3,588
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

Somewhere between the optimist and the pessimist is the realist.
__________________
sgeeeee is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 03:31 PM   #9
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 170
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

Couldn't have said it better Salaryguru!

A pessimist is an optimist with EXPERIENCE! :P
__________________
Tommy_Dolitte is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 03:39 PM   #10
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 1,375
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

[quote]
Cutthroat: You are going to make a fine curmudgion
Safe to say that you have most of us pegged pretty well.
Just wish you'd hurry up and make the African Safari trip with pictures, while i can still afford the electricity to power my computer
Jarhead
__________________
Jarhead* is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 04:03 PM   #11
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
haha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Hooverville
Posts: 22,382
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

I am by nature a pessimist. I would make a terrible salesman or businessman, unless I were a liquidator. Most things that people buy, I never would have thought anyone would want. Socially, I have to hide this aspect of myself or wouldn't have any friends. Too much of a downer. My alltime favorite song is Blind Lemon Jefferson's "See That My Grave Is Kept Clean".

But this unpleasant, unAmerican habit of mind turns out to be well suited to investing in stocks, though probably not so much in real estate. I have never had the nerve to buy an expensive house, hoping it would appreciate before I lost my job and lost the house. I have lived in the same house ever since I bought it in my mid-thirties.

My only real esate profits were from oddities, like buying raw land from a logger who just wanted to buy another treed tract, and short-platting to sell as mini-farms. It took some work, but no optimism

I now have invested assets considerably greater than my total lifetime earned income. There were even a few years when my kids were young that I qualified for the earned income credit.

My pessimism and wariness has helped me avoid some quagmires. The cost of course is that I have never participated in the absolute boom stage of a market; I have sold by then.

Pessimism has not kept me from being at times as much as 120% long equities, with essentially no fixed income other than checking needs. But only at times when things are so stupidly cheap that it would be really hard to lose. Also, now, at my age, I wouldn't repeat that. I always hated jobs, but I knew I could get one. It's different with some age onboard-- who wants a 63 year old pessimistic misanthrope?

In fact, what employer wants a 63 year old with the world's sweetest personality?

Now, before y'all commit suicide, JUST KIDDING

Mikey
__________________
"As a general rule, the more dangerous or inappropriate a conversation, the more interesting it is."-Scott Adams
haha is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 04:16 PM   #12
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

Well mikey, no one would want a 60 year old
pessimistic misanthorpe either. I don't care as I
don't want a job and will not run for office. I always
say what I mean and do what I say (with some poetic license). BTW, I
am not really a pessimist, but a cynic. They are not the same. Basically, I have 100% confidence in my own
abilities, but very little in others. On the other hand, I love people in general and have love in my heart
for all mankind, as long as they stay out of my way

John Galt
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 04:25 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

I know what you guys are doing - you're just trying to con SG out of a curmudgeon certificate before me.
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 04:44 PM   #14
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

Quote:
And whatís this ďjobless recovery?Ē I donít understand how people can have no ďjobĒ in the United States. From my experience with the public in the work I do, Iíve generally found that people without a job are in that situation by choice. Itís usually laziness and/or stupidity or they have retired.
Obviously these are not the people they talk abouit when they talk about people with no jobs.

Second of all the people that "should" be out doing ANYTHING simply becaused they need a job are just making a very capitalist business based descision. PAY them enough and THEN they'll work. The rich do it all the time. Businesses do it all the time. That's how the system works. (unless of course you can keep enough people in an economically exploitable position. Then you can force them to work without paying tjem enough.That's capitalism. Ricardo and Smith talked about it at length)
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 05:09 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

Quote:
I know what you guys are doing - you're just trying to con SG out of a curmudgeon certificate before me.

I dont need no steenking girlie man certificate. Arrr. Grrr. Arrr.

Either I'm doing a good 'curmudgeon' or its national "talk like a pirate day". :P
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 06:03 PM   #16
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mesa
Posts: 3,588
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

Quote:
I know what you guys are doing - you're just trying to con SG out of a curmudgeon certificate before me.
Don't worry unclemick. Your curmudgeon certification is safe.
__________________
sgeeeee is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 10:48 PM   #17
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
retire@40's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Posts: 2,670
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

Quote:

Well, a lot of the folks on this forum are here because they are pessimists. We actually saved money for leaner times ahead.
From the posts here it looks like you are right, but I've been thinking of retiring early since I was a teenager not because I was ever a pessimist, but because I was optimistic of becoming wealthy enough to do so. I was also optimistic that I would enjoy the rest of my long life doing things that are fun and stress-free.

Quote:

Most of these real optimists never had any savings, because they were so optimistic that they could find another job in a heartbeat! They were so optimistic that everything would keep coming up roses like it did in the 90's.
I don't call that optimism, I call it naive. I save my money because I am optimistic that it will grow enough so I can live on my ROI when I am young enough to enjoy it, not because I am afraid I can't work until I die.

Quote:

I think the whole nature of ER has pessimism deep in its roots. If you run FIRECalc we always try to surive in the worst case scenario. Some here (very intelligent ones) are so pessimistic that they believe the coming times in the U.S. will actually be worse than any model in FIRECalc. This includes the depression where stocks lost 80% of their value. Now that's pessimism for you. Compared to them I'm optimistic with 60% in the Market. I assume you have 100% in the market, if you are so optimistic.
Again, if most people that ER are pessimists, it shocks me. If you look at any of the major indexes over the long-term, they look pretty optimistic to me, so why would a rational mind assume a contrary view of the future? Of course there will be bear markets, but decade by decade the markets look fantastic and I am confident that the market will be higher 5 to 10 years from now than it is today.

Quote:
Here is the deal with being a pessimist. If we're right then our financial plan will make it. If were wrong, then we'll have to spend more money and get that new Lexus and take an African Photo Safari

Either way we win! - We like it that way
I have been running my scenarios using what I call "the most likely reasonable conservative outcome" method and it has worked. I take all my assets and determine the average return I have been getting over the past 10 years plus my average savings rate. If I were a true pessimist, I would probably put all my money in the bank, but as an realist-optimist, I know I can outperform the bank CD rates long-term by investing in bonds, equities, and real estate.

I think that even though many posters on this forum perceive themselves as pessimists, they are probably just constant worriers (myself included), but optimistic of their future.
__________________
No man is free who is not master of himself. --- Epictetus
Enjoy Yourself (It's Later Than You Think). --- Guy Lombardo
retire@40 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-02-2004, 11:22 PM   #18
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

As long as interest rates stay low, I'm a short-term optimist. As soon as rates and inflation pick-up momentum, I'll become a mid-term pessimist. For the long-term, I'm neither a pessimist nor an optimist, just very curious

However, I'll give you the following odds:

-- Chances are that you'll see an event that impacts the GDP as hard as the Great Depression in your lifetime: about 30%.

-- Chances are that we'll get a back-to-back repeat of the 1984-2000 market returns: about 0%.

-- Chances that we'll see the historical worst 30-year US market returns in our future lifetime: > 20%.
__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-03-2004, 04:36 AM   #19
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

Hi Wab! Still on the diet. Pretty faithful except for the sugar in my nightly glass of wine. I already lost 4 lbs,
even though that was not the goal. Interesting.

Re. your post You forgot one:

Chances that we'll all end up dead 100%

BTW, I think we should find a way to run "Ahnold"
for President. Might even get me to register and vote
if that happened I thought his speech was the tops.
( Zell Miller was good too) I turned "W" off after 20 minutes.

John Galt

__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Foolish economic girly-man
Old 09-03-2004, 04:59 AM   #20
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 165
Re: Foolish economic girly-man

Quote:

Again, if most people that ER are pessimists, it shocks me. *If you look at any of the major indexes over the long-term, they look pretty optimistic to me, so why would a rational mind assume a contrary view of the future? *
I am curious, what indicators do you use to deduce this conclusion? Are you using the past performance of the market index? Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

Jane
__________________

__________________
Jane is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
An economic icon passes Eagle43 Other topics 5 11-17-2006 09:24 AM
GAO chief warns economic disaster frayne Other topics 1 10-28-2006 07:01 PM
More economic doom 'n' gloom Cool Dood FIRE and Money 28 04-08-2006 08:45 PM
The Blog of a Man Who Plans to Retire at 37 Jack Key Hi, I am... 76 01-14-2006 03:57 AM
Economic Outlook for 2004 DFW_M5 FIRE and Money 22 12-17-2003 04:32 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:25 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.