Found another mistake in my spreadsheet...

[SecondCor521]

Sometimes I think about being a CFP. Days like today encourage me not to.

I just found another mistake in my home-brewed "when can I retire?" spreadsheet.

The good news is that my new "gold" FIRE date is age 50.28, on September 4, 2019. This is two years earlier than before.

The bad news is now I don't trust my spreadsheet and am going to have to go over it to make sure I'm doing everything else correctly.

2Cor521

[FinanceDude]

Originally Posted by SecondCor521

Sometimes I think about being a CFP. Days like today encourage me not to.

I just found another mistake in my home-brewed "when can I retire?" spreadsheet.

The good news is that my new "gold" FIRE date is age 50.28, on September 4, 2019. This is two years earlier than before.

The bad news is now I don't trust my spreadsheet and am going to have to go over it to make sure I'm doing everything else correctly.

2Cor521

I'm only concerned if you used to work at Enron in the accounting area..........

[bssc]

Well, since it will impact the rest of your life, I would check it closely.

[RetireeRobert]

Originally Posted by SecondCor521

Sometimes I think about being a CFP. Days like today encourage me not to.

I just found another mistake in my home-brewed "when can I retire?" spreadsheet.

The good news is that my new "gold" FIRE date is age 50.28, on September 4, 2019. This is two years earlier than before.

The bad news is now I don't trust my spreadsheet and am going to have to go over it to make sure I'm doing everything else correctly.

2Cor521

The fact your spreadsheet "mistake" delayed your ER 2 years simply means you will be a conservative CFP. One who builds in extra safety margins. That is a good thing.

[Rich_in_Tampa]

FWIW, the bigger mistakes (don't ask me how I know) get fewer and more obvious the close you get to FIRE.

[Texas Proud]

What, you don't have that .28 figured out to the exact minute What kind of planner are you

[maddythebeagle]

I say check it again add some fudge factors to get you to FIRE tomorrow....

[FinanceDude]

I should have retired 10 years ago but I couldn't sustain 25% average returns for the past 20 years............

[SecondCor521]

(Trying out this new fancy multireply thingymabob.)

Originally Posted by FinanceDude

I'm only concerned if you used to work at Enron in the accounting area..........

Nope, never worked for them. Although if you have problems with a laser printer from a large, well-known manufacturer of same, I may be at fault.

Originally Posted by bssc

Well, since it will impact the rest of your life, I would check it closely.

Yup, plan to. The error in this case revolved around my child support payments, which drop off over time as my kids become emancipated. Since this is a significant part of my budget, I have to do several things:

1. Model the drop off in my expenses over time.
2. Figure out the NPV of my future CS expenses at any given month in the future.
3. Model the increased savings I will be able to do (in theory, anyway) as my CS payments drop.

Originally Posted by RetireeRobert

The fact your spreadsheet "mistake" delayed your ER 2 years simply means you will be a conservative CFP. One who builds in extra safety margins. That is a good thing.

Yeah, I'm nearly as conservative as Want2Retire, although I plan on spending the same in retirement, not more ;-).

Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa

FWIW, the bigger mistakes (don't ask me how I know) get fewer and more obvious the close you get to FIRE.

Oh dear. Sounds like the voice of experience ;-).

Originally Posted by Texas Proud

What, you don't have that .28 figured out to the exact minute What kind of planner are you

-- My spreadsheet tells me I can retire in the month in which my expenses hit 4% of my FIRE assets, so I only have it narrowed down to the month. You'll notice that all my retirement dates I've ever posted here are an integral number of months away from the day I posted them ;-).

I figure (a) within a month is close enough for now for planning purposes; things are very likely going to happen to change that number anyway, and (b) when I get closer I suspect that other factors may come into play -- I may be forced to retire a little early, or I may stay a little later. Too early to tell.

Originally Posted by maddythebeagle

I say check it again add some fudge factors to get you to FIRE tomorrow....

I actually did a little sensitivity analysis and discovered that if I manage to maintain 0% inflation in my current expenses, increase my 401(k) savings rate from 20% to 25%, and retire on a 5% withdrawal rate, that I could retire at 46. I don't think I can at this point reasonably expect to do any better than that...

Originally Posted by FinanceDude

I should have retired 10 years ago but I couldn't sustain 25% average returns for the past 20 years............

Wait, I thought you were a guru?!?

2Cor521

[FinanceDude]

Wait, I thought you were a guru?!?
2Cor521

Notice the screenname finance DUDE, NOt finance GURU...........

[Rambler]

Yup, fudge factors help. Ours is "how much we want to leave to the kids". We keep that number on the high side, and certainly aren't telling them! If things go south, we have their "retirement booster" to count on. Also, checking your calcs against firecalc and the myriad of others out there helps calm the mind. If yours, and most of the others, say "OK" then you're probably not im much danger.

Rambler

[Nords]

Originally Posted by Rambler

Ours is "how much we want to leave to the kids". We keep that number on the high side, and certainly aren't telling them!

One's heirs should never learn that the dear ol' folks are worth more dead than alive...

[megacorp-firee]

I am a big believer in not exceeding the precision of the model. You don't have to be exact ... especially since you don't know when you are going to die (which can dramatically affect the results of any math). You just have to get in the ball park ... with a buffer ... This 'just in case' bucket should give you the ability to sleep at night. Good luck.