Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Gen-X Calculator
Old 10-13-2004, 05:46 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 212
Gen-X Calculator

For you true Young Dreamers, the Generation-X Excel spreadsheet on intercst's homepage
http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/software.html
has been configured to use on the Internet by 2Web Technologies.
http://home.xl2web.com/xl2webModel.jsp?uid=S9A3Q4I0

Give it a look-see.

arrete
__________________

__________________
arrete is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Gen-X Calculator
Old 10-13-2004, 11:32 AM   #2
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Houston
Posts: 1,435
Re: Gen-X Calculator

Looks good, but where is the calculator for "echo boomers" like me? I'm not some grey-haired one-food-in-the-grave gen-x'er.

And let me just say that "echo boomer" is one of the worst possible names for a generation that they could've choosen.
__________________

__________________
soupcxan is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Gen-X Calculator
Old 10-18-2004, 02:02 AM   #3
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 5
Re: Gen-X Calculator

Thanks for the info.

That is useful to get a rough idea of things, but let me just note a couple things.

1. It uses a 10% return assumption and a 0.2% investment expense ratio. Besides quacks on cnbc I'm not sure who else would predict this sort of return going from the current market valuations. If you're using 0.2% as your expense ratio the only funds that would fit this are mostly us index funds -- it's been quite a while since sophisticated investment types have recommended anything like a portfolio 100% in an s&p index and/or expected 10% from such a portfolio.

2. This being said, the projections can change wildly if you adjust the return down to a more reasonable level of 7%, or 5%. This would add years to the time until you get to retirement and require a much higher nest egg to allow for 100% safe withdrawal.

3. The study reports that there's little difference to retirement between someone making $30,000 and sombody making $100,000 or $200,000. Well, this goes without saying if the $100,000 earner continues to spend a similar percent of his/her salary as the $30,000 earner. But LBYM is usually an integral part of retiring early and the big earner can quite easily save a MUCH higher percentage of his/her salary. The methodological mistake here is clear.

__________________
dancalio is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Gen-X Calculator
Old 10-18-2004, 11:10 AM   #4
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 248
Re: Gen-X Calculator

Quote:
Thanks for the info.

That is useful to get a rough idea of things, but let me just note a couple things.

1. It uses a 10% return assumption and a 0.2% investment expense ratio. *Besides quacks on cnbc I'm not sure who else would predict this sort of return going from the current market valuations. *If you're using 0.2% as your expense ratio the only funds that would fit this are mostly us index funds -- it's been quite a while since sophisticated investment types have recommended anything like a portfolio 100% in an s&p index and/or expected 10% from such a portfolio.

2. This being said, the projections can change wildly if you adjust the return down to a more reasonable level of 7%, or 5%. This would add years to the time until you get to retirement and require a much higher nest egg to allow for 100% safe withdrawal.

3. The study reports that there's little difference to retirement between someone making $30,000 and sombody making $100,000 or $200,000. *Well, this goes without saying if the $100,000 earner continues to spend a similar percent of his/her salary as the $30,000 earner. *But LBYM is usually an integral part of retiring early and the big earner can quite easily save a MUCH higher percentage of his/her salary. *The methodological mistake here is clear.
It's a worksheet. You can input any expense ratio or investment return you like.

intercst
__________________
***** puts the "hoco" in Hoco-mania
intercst is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Gen-X Calculator
Old 10-18-2004, 07:02 PM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
brewer12345's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Posts: 16,391
Re: Gen-X Calculator

Interesting. I tried a range of scenarios including different return and inflation numbers and basically got about what I had always thought (I am 12 to 15 years away from retirement with not unreasonable assumtions). The real innaresting thing is that when I vary the % safe choice, I go almost no difference in when I could retire. That seems pretty counter-intuitive.

Of course, all the assumptions I plgged in don't include pretty major things, like funding college for the kids or selling a paid-off house to move somewhere cheaper, but its a good start.
__________________
"There are three kinds of men. The one that learns by reading. The few who learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves."



- Will Rogers
brewer12345 is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Gen-X Calculator
Old 10-18-2004, 11:29 PM   #6
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 5
Re: Gen-X Calculator

Quote:

It's a worksheet. You can input any expense ratio or investment return you like.

intercst
I was just referring to the original study linked above the calculator link.
__________________
dancalio is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Gen-X Calculator
Old 10-19-2004, 04:22 PM   #7
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 248
Re: Gen-X Calculator

Quote:

I was just referring to the original study linked above the calculator link.
The 10% return in the original study is the average for the S&P500 over the last 75 years.

intercst
__________________
***** puts the "hoco" in Hoco-mania
intercst is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Gen-X Calculator
Old 10-24-2004, 12:39 PM   #8
Confused about dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 5
Re: Gen-X Calculator

Quote:

The 10% return in the original study is the average for the S&P500 over the last 75 years.

intercst
Do you assume I don't know that? It's no secret that given the still high valuations many intelligent commentators (Stein and DeMuth, Shiller, Grantham, and more) foresee lower returns at least for the medium term. One should especially try to be conservative given the fact that we're talking about a retirement calculator.
__________________
dancalio is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Gen-X Calculator
Old 10-25-2004, 04:43 AM   #9
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 570
Re: Gen-X Calculator

One should especially try to be conservative given the fact that we're talking about a retirement calculator.

I agree.
__________________

__________________
hocus is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Life Expectancy Calculator Buddha44 Health and Early Retirement 24 12-30-2006 07:15 PM
Looking for an inflation bond calculator early FIRE and Money 1 04-25-2005 04:06 PM
Online calculator article from CBS MarketWatch mickeyd FIRE and Money 1 10-25-2004 10:06 AM
The JWR retirement calculator sgeeeee FIRE and Money 18 06-08-2004 11:11 AM
New Calculator - Max Sustainable Withdrawal Rates kmarbach FIRE and Money 13 03-19-2003 01:28 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:00 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.