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Hey folks, long time no see
Old 06-12-2005, 07:37 PM   #1
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Hey folks, long time no see

How is everyone?

Me - I'm still not ER Did buy a new car last year to replace my ten year old one - this one (Japanese make) should last even longer, plus it's more fun to drive.

I'm slowly trying to wedge myself away from the daily grind of a software engineer (there are still a few of us left in the US)... frankly, I'd love to be "semi-retired", working a few months a year for myself and getting by the rest of the time.

My financially astute buddy thinks that the market is going to tank soon - soon being sometime in the next year.

Time to go back to sleep
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see
Old 06-12-2005, 08:08 PM   #2
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see

Quote:
Originally Posted by Whakamole
How is everyone?

Me - I'm still not ER * Did buy a new car last year to replace my ten year old one - this one (Japanese make) should last even longer, plus it's more fun to drive.

I'm slowly trying to wedge myself away from the daily grind of a software engineer (there are still a few of us left in the US)... frankly, I'd love to be "semi-retired", working a few months a year for myself and getting by the rest of the time.

My financially astute buddy thinks that the market is going to tank soon - soon being sometime in the next year.*

Time to go back to sleep*
Well, I am well, thank you very much. In the big scheme of troubles/
problems/ potential turmoil and possible tumult, the "market
tanking" is not even on my radar. Honestly, I never give it a thought.

JG
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see
Old 06-12-2005, 08:18 PM   #3
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see

Why does your financially astute buddy predict this? Does he know something we don't? Enlighten us, please. Doom and gloom and ok, but there's gotta be a reason.
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see
Old 06-12-2005, 08:21 PM   #4
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eagle43
Why does your financially astute buddy predict this? Does he know something we don't? Enlighten us, please. Doom and gloom and ok, but there's gotta be a reason.
Probably one of the brightest guys I know. But basically it comes down to a few factors:
- housing bubble
- current account deficit
- China's bubble

Not really doom and gloom - just another fun recession. Depending on what happens to housing though...
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see
Old 06-12-2005, 08:29 PM   #5
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see

The China bubble has deflated somewhat.
Other things to consider that agree with your friend's opion is:
Fed raising interest rates - they ususally overshoot.
Fed has been pumping $ into the system - if that comes to an end a recission could follow.
High oil prices - Shell just came out with a study stating $40 oil is here to stay.
Bear market bottom has not ocurred - the 2000 bubble burst but, it still has not corrected to historical trends - look at the last bubble 1929.
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see
Old 06-17-2005, 06:15 PM   #6
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see

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Originally Posted by dex
Bear market bottom has not ocurred - the 2000 bubble burst but, it still has not corrected to historical trends - look at the last bubble 1929.
I'm no economist, but I'd be willing to bet some serious money that we won't be seeing another Great Depression anytime soon.* In fact, I've already bet my life savings on it!
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see
Old 06-17-2005, 09:43 PM   #7
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see

Yeah we more or less headed right back up to where we were in 2000, minus the stupid internet stocks.

I dont think we'll have an 80% drop either. I think we're gonna go sideways for 10-12 years.
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see
Old 06-17-2005, 11:30 PM   #8
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see

Ever year that the market goes sideways (which it basically has for the last 5) means that E gets a chance to catch up with P.* *A little more of this, and P/Es will start looking normal (assuming you think they aren't already).
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see
Old 06-18-2005, 01:40 PM   #9
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see

Except many CEO's interviewed expect their E's to go down over the next 5 years.
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see
Old 06-18-2005, 01:42 PM   #10
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Re: Hey folks, long time no see

Quote:
Originally Posted by Notth
Except many CEO's interviewed expect their E's to go down over the next 5 years.
Nah they expect their E's to go up... now the corporate E's...
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