Hey folks, long time no see

[Whakamole]

How is everyone?

Me - I'm still not ER Did buy a new car last year to replace my ten year old one - this one (Japanese make) should last even longer, plus it's more fun to drive.

I'm slowly trying to wedge myself away from the daily grind of a software engineer (there are still a few of us left in the US)... frankly, I'd love to be "semi-retired", working a few months a year for myself and getting by the rest of the time.

My financially astute buddy thinks that the market is going to tank soon - soon being sometime in the next year.

Time to go back to sleep

[MRGALT2U]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Whakamole How is everyone? Me - I'm still not ER * Did buy a new car last year to replace my ten year old one - this one (Japanese make) should last even longer, plus it's more fun to drive. I'm slowly trying to wedge myself away from the daily grind of a software engineer (there are still a few of us left in the US)... frankly, I'd love to be "semi-retired", working a few months a year for myself and getting by the rest of the time. My financially astute buddy thinks that the market is going to tank soon - soon being sometime in the next year.* Time to go back to sleep*

Well, I am well, thank you very much. In the big scheme of troubles/
problems/ potential turmoil and possible tumult, the "market
tanking" is not even on my radar. Honestly, I never give it a thought.

JG

[Eagle43]

Why does your financially astute buddy predict this? Does he know something we don't? Enlighten us, please. Doom and gloom and ok, but there's gotta be a reason.

[Whakamole]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eagle43 Why does your financially astute buddy predict this? Does he know something we don't? Enlighten us, please. Doom and gloom and ok, but there's gotta be a reason.

Probably one of the brightest guys I know. But basically it comes down to a few factors:
- housing bubble
- current account deficit
- China's bubble

Not really doom and gloom - just another fun recession. Depending on what happens to housing though...

[dex]

The China bubble has deflated somewhat.
Other things to consider that agree with your friend's opion is:
Fed raising interest rates - they ususally overshoot.
Fed has been pumping $ into the system - if that comes to an end a recission could follow.
High oil prices - Shell just came out with a study stating $40 oil is here to stay.
Bear market bottom has not ocurred - the 2000 bubble burst but, it still has not corrected to historical trends - look at the last bubble 1929.

[SLC Tortfeasor]

Quote:

Originally Posted by dex Bear market bottom has not ocurred - the 2000 bubble burst but, it still has not corrected to historical trends - look at the last bubble 1929.

I'm no economist, but I'd be willing to bet some serious money that we won't be seeing another Great Depression anytime soon.* In fact, I've already bet my life savings on it!

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Yeah we more or less headed right back up to where we were in 2000, minus the stupid internet stocks.

I dont think we'll have an 80% drop either. I think we're gonna go sideways for 10-12 years.

[wabmester]

Ever year that the market goes sideways (which it basically has for the last 5) means that E gets a chance to catch up with P.* *A little more of this, and P/Es will start looking normal (assuming you think they aren't already).

[cute fuzzy bunny]

Except many CEO's interviewed expect their E's to go down over the next 5 years.

[moghopper]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Notth Except many CEO's interviewed expect their E's to go down over the next 5 years.

Nah they expect their E's to go up... now the corporate E's...