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Old 01-20-2016, 05:35 AM   #21
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Bumping this thread because crude is $27.50 today. Will my job and/or Houston survive?
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Old 01-20-2016, 05:55 AM   #22
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Bumping this thread because crude is $27.50 today. Will my job and/or Houston survive?
I live in the Eagle Ford oil patch and it's rough here, but we're surviving. Some people are being laid off or furloughed, others are still working but have had their hours cut.

Houston learned a lesson from the mid-1980s oil bust. The economy is much more diversified today than it was 30 years ago. The oil bidness is still big there, of course, and there will be pain in that industry and there will be a ripple effect on the local economy and perhaps the housing market, but I can't see it getting anywhere *near* as bad as the last time Houston tanked.
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Old 01-20-2016, 06:50 AM   #23
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Bumping this thread because crude is $27.50 today. Will my job and/or Houston survive?
Houston will survive. As folks mentioned earlier, it is much more balanced than in the 80's. I remember seeing half-built strip centers in the west side of town during that time. Lots of builders went broke.

As to your job, it depends what you do, and for whom. A good friend is a petroleum landman. He was laid off 6 months ago and his prospects are pretty slim.

I work as an engineer in the petrochemical industry. My company is doing pretty well, and is still hiring.
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Old 01-20-2016, 07:20 AM   #24
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I remember going to business school at Rice in mid 80's and half of my classmates were out of the oil patch. Seeing all of the empty strip malls and apartments was quite sobering. I sure hope it isn't as bad for people this time around.


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Old 01-20-2016, 07:33 AM   #25
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The Chronicle has a quote this morning citing 400,000 jobs created in the region over 5 years. (I assume from 2009-2014.) In stock market terms, for now I think Houston is in a correction, not a bear market.
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Old 01-20-2016, 08:26 AM   #26
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1) ask any truck dealer how many of the $30-$60k trucks they are selling now (not many)

2) oil crash is crushing Houston's housing market
Oil crash hits Texas' housing market - Business Insider
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Old 01-20-2016, 08:51 AM   #27
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I remember going to business school at Rice in mid 80's and half of my classmates were out of the oil patch. Seeing all of the empty strip malls and apartments was quite sobering. I sure hope it isn't as bad for people this time around.


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what college at Rice? I hung out with a lot of the Lovett crowd. yes when I graduated in the mid 80s there were no oil jerbs for the new geologists, geophysicists , etc
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Old 01-20-2016, 08:52 AM   #28
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Bumping this thread because crude is $27.50 today. Will my job and/or Houston survive?
maybe you will get lucky and get a "package"
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Old 01-20-2016, 09:53 AM   #29
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maybe you will get lucky and get a "package"
Unlikely, I'm too young. And even a large payout would not be enough to get me to FI.
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Old 01-20-2016, 10:07 AM   #30
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Well I hope you stay employed. My nephew got laid off from Noble about 3 months ago.
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Old 01-20-2016, 10:34 AM   #31
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1) ask any truck dealer how many of the $30-$60k trucks they are selling now (not many)

2) oil crash is crushing Houston's housing market
Oil crash hits Texas' housing market - Business Insider

This from the article...
Now, unsold homes sit near the Exxon Mobil campus, with the supply of so-called speculative houses there exceeding the metropolitan area’s average since the second quarter of 2014

I decided to look at the listings.... the houses around Exxon Mobile are price WAY out of line with the rest of the area... I see houses that are $600K that would cost $400K maybe 10 minutes away... I saw one group of houses that were all over $1 mill.... and they did not seem to be that much better than other stock (I will admit that I have not gone to look at them, just the pics)....

I did take a look at one of them and it is smaller than mine, on a lot that is just a bit over half my lot and is selling for $237 per sf.... in my neighborhood you can buy for between $80 and $100 per sf and be 20 minutes away.... IMO it is stupid of the builders to think that people will buy without comparing other options....


It also mentioned that we have an over supply of houses over $400K.... well, you can get a pretty good house here for less than that, so why pay more?

I am still getting mailings from RE agents that say they have buyers etc. and would I want to list my house... the market might not be great, but it is not anything like back in 2008 looking at the prices.... as an example, in my last neighborhood you could not sell a house for up to a year and then at a price around $115K.... I saw a number of listings in the $160K range and an equal number of ones showing 'pending' sale....
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Old 01-20-2016, 10:37 AM   #32
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Unlikely, I'm too young. And even a large payout would not be enough to get me to FI.
Hang in there, this too shall pass. I've been in the oil industry since 1980 and seen this before. We still need 12+ million BPD of crude in the U.S, and currently produce about 2/3 of that internally. What's peeved off the Saudis and the 20 or so other nations that we import crude oil from is that we have:

1. Reduced our imports of crude oil overall.
2. Imported most outside crude from Canada as they ramped up production.
3. Figured out how to drill/frac/complete wells that are more productive.

Add all this up and OPEC has lost market share. Fortunately, they (Saudis) need oil at some higher price ($60 - $70?) to support their Kingdom. Several other nations like Venezuela, Nigeria, Russia, etc need higher prices as their economies are based on oil revenue at higher prices.

It's a mess right now, but oil prices can't be sustained at these low levels for very long. What may be the "event' to change things? I don't know, but if you are working in a U.S. oil company, it might get tough, sorry to say.
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Old 01-20-2016, 10:42 AM   #33
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This from the article...
Now, unsold homes sit near the Exxon Mobil campus, with the supply of so-called speculative houses there exceeding the metropolitan area’s average since the second quarter of 2014

I decided to look at the listings.... the houses around Exxon Mobile are price WAY out of line with the rest of the area... I see houses that are $600K that would cost $400K maybe 10 minutes away... I saw one group of houses that were all over $1 mill.... and they did not seem to be that much better than other stock (I will admit that I have not gone to look at them, just the pics)....

I did take a look at one of them and it is smaller than mine, on a lot that is just a bit over half my lot and is selling for $237 per sf.... in my neighborhood you can buy for between $80 and $100 per sf and be 20 minutes away.... IMO it is stupid of the builders to think that people will buy without comparing other options....
I live 10 minutes from the Campus. Those homes were spec built for the incoming workers, many of who relocated from Fairfax, VA where a starter home sells for $600K. Most of those folks were smart enough to buy in the older Woodland neighborhoods where homes are selling for $100/SF less. Stupid builders. And right now, The Woodlands housing market is dead, period.
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Old 01-20-2016, 10:58 AM   #34
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The real estate in my old hood, 77018, is stupid expensive. Not that I'm bitter that my house is now appraised at twice what it was when I moved 5 years ago but still, I don't think houses are moving like they used to. Lots of downtown oil company people in the 77018.
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Old 01-20-2016, 10:58 AM   #35
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I live 10 minutes from the Campus. Those homes were spec built for the incoming workers, many of who relocated from Fairfax, VA where a starter home sells for $600K. Most of those folks were smart enough to buy in the older Woodland neighborhoods where homes are selling for $100/SF less. Stupid builders. And right now, The Woodlands housing market is dead, period.
If I moved back to H-town I'd probably be on a golf course in the Woodlands. Can't beat it.
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Old 01-20-2016, 11:00 AM   #36
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on the other hand, attorneys, accountants and benefits consultants in Houston are probably extremely busy right now...
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Old 01-20-2016, 11:55 AM   #37
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It also mentioned that we have an over supply of houses over $400K.... well, you can get a pretty good house here for less than that, so why pay more?

I am still getting mailings from RE agents that say they have buyers etc. and would I want to list my house... the market might not be great, but it is not anything like back in 2008 looking at the prices.... as an example, in my last neighborhood you could not sell a house for up to a year and then at a price around $115K.... I saw a number of listings in the $160K range and an equal number of ones showing 'pending' sale....[/QUOTE]

I had also read in another forum that houses over $400K were not moving. It's good to hear that RE agents are wanting to list your home. My unemployed brother needs to sell his home in 77406, probably for $100/SF, and was planning to put it on the market in another month or two. I know he would like to get more but he cannot afford the Fort Bend taxes.
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Old 01-20-2016, 12:00 PM   #38
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From this morning at $27.50/bbl we're now down to $26.50...wheeeeeee!
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Old 01-20-2016, 12:06 PM   #39
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I had also read in another forum that houses over $400K were not moving. It's good to hear that RE agents are wanting to list your home. My unemployed brother needs to sell his home in 77406, probably for $100/SF, and was planning to put it on the market in another month or two. I know he would like to get more but he cannot afford the Fort Bend taxes.
glws - that's a brutal commute from Richmond to downtown or even the galleria - I actually got my drivers license in Richmond back when it was out there all by itself
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Old 01-20-2016, 02:18 PM   #40
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From this morning at $27.50/bbl we're now down to $26.50...wheeeeeee!
Now that I think about it, the wheeeeee noise makes a lot more sense for the going down part.....
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