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Old 01-20-2016, 08:45 PM   #41
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The current Houston economy is not as bad off as one might think...at least not yet:

Houston Economy in 2016: No Recovery in Oil Markets Brings Another Slow Year

From the forecast:

Quote:
Having lost the opportunity for a quick recovery, all the employment scenarios for Houston point to another slow year in 2016. So far, much of the economic damage from low oil prices is confined to oil production, oil services, and oil-related manufacturing. As the rig count bottoms out in 2016, oil-related layoffs should slow sharply. However, additional time without a real turnaround in oil markets provides the opportunity for economic damage to spread through many sectors that have yet to feel much pain.

Many businesses in Houston will tell you that they have yet to see much effect of the drilling bust. Strong job growth continues unabated in sectors such as education, healthcare, leisure, hospitality, and local government. Sales and price levels are holding up for single-family housing. Apartment occupancy and rents are still strong. Retail sales are still growing, and restaurants are still crowded.

Some of this activity stems from Houstonís current economic strengths: US economic growth and petrochemical expansion. Some activity is the result of past momentum. Houston added nearly 680,000 payroll jobs between 2003 and 2014, the equivalent of a metro area the size of Oklahoma City. Even as job growth slowed in 2015, there remained serious demand for housing, shopping centers, bars and restaurants, schools, roads, and other infrastructure. But the catch-up phase will lose momentum as slow growth extends into 2016.

Finally, 2015 population growth probably remained at very high levels, as in-migration typically continues for several quarters after job growth slows. But with a second year of poor job growth, news will spread that that Houston is no longer a growth mecca for the nationís unemployed. Figure 8 shows the how the slowdown of in-migration might work in our three scenarios. In no case does it begin to accelerate again before the second half of 2017.
Emphasis added
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Old 01-20-2016, 10:17 PM   #42
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Bumping this thread because crude is $27.50 today. Will my job and/or Houston survive?
Since I know nothing about you ir your job, your guess is better than mine about that.

About Houston, of course it will survive. It's not like it hasn't survived big oil busts before, and it will this time, and it will in futures yet to be seen.

There is lot to Houston besides oil. And I think with all the SUVs that were bought in America in 2015, the advertised demise of oil is likely still well off into the future.

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Old 01-20-2016, 10:38 PM   #43
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Watch the foreclosure rate in Harris and surrounding counties if it inches up to 3k a month then it is as bad as the late 1980s. (Of course if you had a job traffic problems cleared up, and since the road expansion projects were underway earlier they finished and things got better.
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Old 01-21-2016, 01:30 AM   #44
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glws - that's a brutal commute from Richmond to downtown or even the galleria - I actually got my drivers license in Richmond back when it was out there all by itself
That is a nothing commute to the Galleria area. I lived in that zip code for about 5 years and it took 25 minutes to get to work in the Galleria area. That was due to the Westpark Tollway. It was a very easy commute.
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Old 01-21-2016, 06:07 AM   #45
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One thing on the horizon that may help us is the completion of the Panama Canal expansion.
Our gain in ship traffic may come at the expense of Long Beach Cali though. I'm seeing a lot of storage tank construction and I think that is prep for that. I was in the oil patch in the 80's and the oil production side suffered greatly but chemicals did well as feed stock prices where cheap.
We were going to have a layoff where I work but enough people took the package and so no one is going out involuntarily. It's just part of the business. Boom, Bust.
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Old 01-21-2016, 06:27 AM   #46
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Houston is a tough, resilient city and has recovered from some pretty bad blows in the past. The situation may be rugged for a while but I'm sure it will recover from the present crash in oil prices.

My concern is that some individuals may not recover financially. I just hope that the number of individual households severely affected by all this can be kept at a minimum.
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Old 01-21-2016, 06:40 AM   #47
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Houston is a tough, resilient city and has recovered from some pretty bad blows in the past. The situation may be rugged for a while but I'm sure it will recover from the present crash in oil prices.

My concern is that some individuals may not recover financially. I just hope that the number of individual households severely affected by all this can be kept at a minimum.
I'm glad I'm past the point in my career/life where an oil downturn is not affecting us. Been there/done that twice! Creative folks who had a "plan" will do OK until the industry realigns itself.
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Old 01-21-2016, 06:43 AM   #48
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I'm glad I'm past the point in my career/life where an oil downturn is not affecting us. Been there/done that twice! Creative folks who had a "plan" will do OK until the industry realigns itself.
Glad you aren't affected, too!

IIRC a lot of the Houstonians whose lives were ruined by the oil troubles back in the 1980's, were those working in the oil industry who were also very over-extended financially. No savings, lots of debt, and a lost job can result in disaster for some families.
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Old 01-21-2016, 06:47 AM   #49
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Glad you aren't affected, too!

IIRC a lot of the Houstonians whose lives were ruined by the oil troubles back in the 1980's, were those working in the oil industry who were also very over-extended financially. No savings, lots of debt, and a lost job can result in disaster for some families.
Me = ARCO 1980 - 1986 - lost job (oil @ $8/bbl). went into consulting after unsuccessfully trying to find work for a year. Longest year of my life with wife, two children, big California house. All is good now!
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Old 01-21-2016, 06:53 AM   #50
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I'm glad I'm past the point in my career/life where an oil downturn is not affecting us. Been there/done that twice! Creative folks who had a "plan" will do OK until the industry realigns itself.

Yep. I've seen this movie before. Been planing my escape for years.


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Old 01-21-2016, 10:15 AM   #51
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That is a nothing commute to the Galleria area. I lived in that zip code for about 5 years and it took 25 minutes to get to work in the Galleria area. That was due to the Westpark Tollway. It was a very easy commute.
guess it depends on how close you live to the tollway

I know people that lived in greatwood/Richmond that had commutes well over an hour.

One of my HS friends lives off of 99/I-10 takes way over an hour to get downtown.

The galleria is just awful, no park and ride busses and lots of cars. If I had an afternoon meeting there it would take 40 minutes just to get to 610/shepherd.

Widening the freeways just made things worse, IMO. People kept moving out there....maybe with the oil bust traffic is better
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Old 01-21-2016, 02:01 PM   #52
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Bumping this thread because crude is $27.50 today. Will my job and/or Houston survive?
Yesterday, I heard a news item talking about how the oil industry will lose a lot of jobs. I didn't quite get this. With oil prices low, people are driving more, and buying lower mpg cars on average (short memories, a lot more excitement over Prius, Leaf and Chevy Volt with $4 gas). So shouldn't there be more work in the oil industry?

My guess is that the low prices mean we are importing cheap oil, and much of our domestic oil is too expensive to produce? So production of domestic oil is being cut? Is that it?

Do we domestically refine most of the gasoline we use, or do we actually import gasoline (versus importing crude and refining it)? If we refine here, that should at least mean there is demand for those jobs. I seem to recall that our refineries are designed for the higher grades of oil, so maybe that plays into all this as well? I obviously don't know much about the oil industry, sorry if these are "Oil for Dummies" type questions!


PS: And by 'domestic', I do mean USA - I do realize we have many posters from outside the USA.

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Old 01-21-2016, 02:13 PM   #53
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Yesterday, I heard a news item talking about how the oil industry will lose a lot of jobs. I didn't quite get this. With oil prices low, people are driving more, and buying lower mpg cars on average (short memories, a lot more excitement over Prius, Leaf and Chevy Volt with $4 gas). So shouldn't there be more work in the oil industry?

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I heard an economist say that people are saving, not spending the windfall from low fuel costs. I know I am.
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