I just sold it all

[Caroline]

it was just a feeling I had while reading all of my usual news sources.

As the condemned engineer said when the guillotine malfunctioned and failed to take his head off...* "I think I see your problem."

Those news outlets have to find something to write about every single day.* Much if not all of it is short term "noise."

I used to listen to it every day, and that caused me to alter my investments more often than was prudent.* Eventually I stopped listening and guess what? My net worth didn't suffer one bit from the inattention.*

My advice, FWIW and since you asked, is to find a comfortable asset allocation given your economic expectations, set it and forget it for 6 months to a year, rebalance, and spend the time you save monitoring it to research and analyze retirement locations.*

Oh yes... when you hear Paul Kangas' melifluous tones coming out of your television set -- turn the darned thing OFF!!!!*

[brewer12345]

Originally Posted by mickj

That is probably what I will end up doing, I am considering putting all of my money into* the Wellesley admiral fund.* I would say this is just the "heebie jeebies."* As I said before I don't really know the reason I did it.* I guess it was just a feeling I had while reading all of my usual news sources.* I don't think it was wise but hopefully I won't regret the decision later.

I'll go against the grain on this one. Sometimes your gut feeling is your brain trying to get your attention. The trouble is that you have to be able to separate out the idiotic panicky flight stuff that seems to spring up every so often for most of us, and the real "moment of clarity" type stuff when all the pieces come together and present you with a coherent picture. If you aren't sure which is which, yoou are probably better off just tstying invested.

[modlair]

Re: Markets going up / down and does it mean more buyers or sellers.

None of the above.

It means buyers were more urgent, or sellers were more urgent.

Only that. Nothing more. There have to be as many shares sold as bought. The sense of urgency present in the seller vs the buyer determines the price.

Sometimes widespread urgency can create more potential sellers (buyers) at a moment than there are buyers (sellers), but all that does is stimulate willingness among the crowd to lower (increase) their price.

In other words, assymetric urgency drives prices. Not quantity of buying or selling entites.

[retire@40]

Right, it's based on demand for that stock and supply of shares.

If you have more of a demand to buy that stock than to sell that stock, the price will go up.

If you have more of a demand to sell that stock than to buy that stock, the price will go down.

That's what gives a stock a fair market value, assuming all relevant and material facts are known about the company.

[donheff]

Originally Posted by brewer12345

I'll go against the grain on this one. Sometimes your gut feeling is your brain trying to get your attention. The trouble is that you have to be able to separate out the idiotic panicky flight stuff that seems to spring up every so often for most of us, and the real "moment of clarity" type stuff when all the pieces come together and present you with a coherent picture. If you aren't sure which is which, yoou are probably better off just tstying invested.

I don't know Brewer. If you pull based on numbers or instinct you are market timing. I don't have an argument with someone who knowingly chooses to do that but if us normals "go with our gut" the warnings are that we almost always blow it. To my mind the alternatives are to allocate and stand tight knowing there may be times of scary declines (e.g 40-50%); or you just go with some sort of non-volatile income only deal with a bond ladder or the dreaded SPIA.

[youbet]

Originally Posted by modlair

In other words, assymetric urgency drives prices.* Not quantity of buying or selling entites.

Aw, that's not right.* Assymetric urgency is what happens when the traders drink a lot of coffee in the morning before the market opens and the washrooms are out of order.* You know, traders standing around, knees slightly bent and legs pressed closely together, waiting for the janitor to unplug the potty.* Eating lots of spicey food the night before can be even worse.* Man, just look at those guys hopping around, red-faced suffering from "assymetric urgency!"

[brewer12345]

Originally Posted by donheff

I don't know Brewer.* If you pull based on numbers or instinct you are market timing.* I don't have an argument with someone who knowingly chooses to do that but if us normals "go with our gut" the warnings are that we almost always blow it.* To my mind the alternatives are to allocate and stand tight knowing there may be times of scary declines (e.g 40-50%); or you just go with some sort of non-volatile income only deal with a bond ladder or the dreaded SPIA.

Agreed, an allocated index fund is probably the way to go if you don't wish to actively manage your money. I was commenting more for those of us who aren't (solely) indexers.

[donheff]

Originally Posted by brewer12345

Agreed, an allocated index fund is probably the way to go if you don't wish to actively manage your money. I was commenting more for those of us who aren't (solely) indexers.

Yup. By "us normals" I meant the average Joe who can't or doesn't want to pay as much attention to market details as most guys do to sports stats. I don't pay much attention to either so timing would be a disaster for me.

[semtex]

I had filed the sell order today, but didnot pull the triger. The two markets are telling us different story. Bonds said a recession ahead. Equity said the great jump near. Who to follow? Usually bonds guys are smarter than stock people.

I will sell all my holding when naz close 2300, so 2% away.

[donheff]

Originally Posted by semtex

I will sell all my holding when naz close 2300, so 2% away.

So what do you do if it goes to 2290 then heads downhill: 2000; 1800; 1600. Do you figure you missed your opportunity and stay in till the next rally or bail on the way down? If the later, at what point on the way down to you conclude it is on the way down?

[brewer12345]

Originally Posted by donheff

So what do you do if it goes to 2290 then heads downhill: 2000; 1800; 1600.* Do you figure you missed your opportunity and stay in till the next rally or bail on the way down?* If the later, at what point on the way down to you conclude it is on the way down?

This is why I have an easier time with individual stocks and bonds than with indexes/funds. I can do oodles of fundamental work and come up with what I feel to be a pretty reasonablevaluation for a stock or bond. If it gets much above that, I sell it. Can't do this with any reasonable accuracy with an index.

[semtex]

donheff,
We miss opportunities all the time, what I what to say is I donot believe this rally. As you said, if the market hell down, like 2300, 2000, 1800, 1600. When I will jump in, it all depends. Have to say, I am a dirty timer too.

[uncledrz]

Originally Posted by mickj

Thoughts, suggestions, insults..?

I have no intention to insult. *But I do have a thought and a suggestion.

Getting out of the market entirely on a whim is not the way to invest. *It sounds like fear, of the fear/greed equation, got the better of you.

You should have a written plan. *The plan may include enter and exit points (i.e. p/e, p/s, yield ratios, etc.). *Then if the point is hit, follow through with the plan and be ready to get back in when the enter point is hit. *Otherwise, bailing out on a whim will, as others have pointed out, be costly in the long term.

So decide on you AA and if you'd like, put it in a range, but only work on the edges.

[semtex]

brewer1234,
I am a bad picker, this year, two big bet:
TMFZ, bot 2.3, up to 4 then down to 1. still holding.
PDP.TO, bot 9.8, sold 19.3.
The loss and gain cancel each other.

But my qqqq play always wins. Parking money at MM untill QQQQ down below 37, bot around 36.8, still holding. I will sell it around 41.3.

Only three trades in a year.

[donheff]

Originally Posted by semtex

donheff,
We miss opportunities all the time, what I what to say is I donot believe this rally. As you said, if the market hell down, like 2300, 2000, 1800, 1600. When I will jump in, it all depends. Have to say, I am a dirty timer too.

Actually, I was asking the opposite. If you miss the top - in other words if you are still in and the market starts to fall would you pull out (if so, when) or just stay in until the next time you think we are at a top?

[donheff]

Originally Posted by brewer12345

This is why I have an easier time with individual stocks and bonds than with indexes/funds. I can do oodles of fundamental work and come up with what I feel to be a pretty reasonablevaluation for a stock or bond. If it gets much above that, I sell it. Can't do this with any reasonable accuracy with an index.

That doesn't sound like market timing. It sounds like stock picking. That makes much more sense to me - just not by me

[semtex]

donheff,
I donot expect to catch top or bottom. Here is my strategy: I park cash at MM most time. In one year, I will do two or three trades, each one target 3% to 4% gain. So the total will be 8% to 12%. I only trade qqqq, it is liquid and volatile. Usually I will buy in when qqq down 10%, so there will be a good chance to win.

When to buy, it depends. Like this year, I only did one trade.

This strategy is good for the 2004 until now kind of market, zig-zag.

[Nords]

Originally Posted by donheff

Actually, I was asking the opposite.* *If you miss the top - in other words if you are still in and the market starts to fall would you pull out (if so, when) or just stay in until the next time you think we are at a top?

Today marks at least our 10th all-time portfolio high this year and staying invested has worked for the last nine of them-- we're up 9.4% YTD.

But if our experience is a market indicator then you won't have long to sit on the sidelines...

If you're not a stockpicker then you could have been driven out by concerns over your asset allocation. Maybe before you swoop in at whatever low you're seeking, you could pick your desired asset allocation and either jump in at a price you like or DCA over the next few months.

[mathjak107]

Originally Posted by semtex

donheff,
I donot expect to catch top or bottom. Here is my strategy: I park cash at MM most time. In one year, I will do two or three trades, each one target 3% to 4% gain. So the total will be 8% to 12%. I only trade qqqq, it is liquid and volatile. Usually I will buy in when qqq down 10%, so there will be a good chance to win.

When to buy, it depends. Like this year, I only did one trade.

This strategy is good for the 2004 until now kind of market, zig-zag.

Problem i see is you will miss most of the really big gains while getting whacked in dips every now and then.

Its like my wife said to me, if we only need 7-8% a year on average to make our numbers work then after we hit that why cant we just sell out for the rest of the year?

The answere is because long term we need those 30% plus years in order to make the down years average out to that 7% number. Miss any of it and the magic of the law of large numbers go away.