I just sold it all

[modlair]

It is worth noting that the studies indicating that you must remain in the market were funded by mutual fund companies whose fees are only collected if you remain in the market.

I have always thought it was somewhat shaky for them to show something like "if you miss just the 10 big up days over a 20 yr period, then your overall gain in that period is 30% vs 130% if you capture them". I have noted that they never seem to quote what your 20 year results are if you manage to miss the 10 worst down days over that time.

Oh sure, no one seems to be able to do that, but if you're going to quote results that show market timing is a bad idea -- regardless of how possible it is to do -- then I would think academic purity requires you to present the alternate case too.

[brewer12345]

Originally Posted by semtex

brewer1234,
I am a bad picker, this year, two big bet:
TMFZ, bot 2.3, up to 4 then down to 1. still holding.
PDP.TO, bot 9.8, sold 19.3.
The loss and gain cancel each other.

I'm generally not willing to buy anything that doesn't generate a lot of cash and that I am not willing to hold for years. The few times I have made exceptions have generally been mistakes, with the exception of PLMD (never generated much free cash because it has been growing so much).

[FinanceDude]

Originally Posted by brewer12345

I'm generally not willing to buy anything that doesn't generate a lot of cash and that I am not willing to hold for years.* The few times I have made exceptions have generally been mistakes, with the exception of PLMD (never generated much free cash because it has been growing so much).

have you had any luck with companies selling for 2-3X their cash per share price? I know that used to be all the rage a few years ago. you have to think a company that has $3 a share in cash and is selling around $7-$9, with a good business model, should have the potential for price appreciation...........

[yakers]

Originally Posted by modlair

It is worth noting that the studies indicating that you must remain in the market were funded by mutual fund companies whose fees are only collected if you remain in the market.

I have always thought it was somewhat shaky for them to show something like "if you miss just the 10 big up days over a 20 yr period, then your overall gain in that period is 30% vs 130% if you capture them". I have noted that they never seem to quote what your 20 year results are if you manage to miss the 10 worst down days over that time.

Oh sure, no one seems to be able to do that, but if you're going to quote results that show market timing is a bad idea -- regardless of how possible it is to do -- then I would think academic purity requires you to present the alternate case too.

Kind of a good point but it would become too complicated to calculate all the possibilities compared to just in Vs out of the market. I can see going to mostly cash if you feel there are no good asset classes to invest in, but when do you go to cash and when do you go back into the market? Sometimes its more evident when to buy when PEs are low or there is some appealing asset class. There is a nut case H##us who, I think, is following this approach. But it is not obvious that it is better holding cash than being in the market over long periods of time. From my very limited personal experience I feel confident in buying certain items at certain times, my problem is I cannot as accurately figure when to sell.

[brewer12345]

Originally Posted by FinanceDude

have you had any luck with companies selling for 2-3X their cash per share price?* I know that used to be all the rage a few years ago.* you have to think a company that has $3 a share in cash and is selling around $7-$9, with a good business model, should have the potential for price appreciation...........

I did exactly that with NLS a few years ago. *Selling for $12 with $4 a share in cash. *Let that one go well into the 20s.

Now I mostly concentrate on companies that are either selling at roughly asset value and companies that are selling at a depressed cash flow multiple. *Finding both attributes in a single stock is even better.

[FinanceDude]

Originally Posted by brewer12345

I did exactly that with NLS a few years ago. *Selling for $12 with $4 a share in cash. *Let that one go well into the 20s.

Now I mostly concentrate on companies that are either selling at roughly asset value and companies that are selling at a depressed cash flow multiple. *Finding both attributes in a single stock is even better.

Good screen..........are you a fundamentalist or a technician, or maybe a hybrid? I know business schools teach pretty straight fundametal........but have you evolved??

[brewer12345]

Originally Posted by FinanceDude

Good screen..........are you a fundamentalist or a technician, or maybe a hybrid?* I know business schools teach pretty straight fundametal........but have you evolved??

Strictly fundamental analysis. I never believed any of the technical analyss stuff was more than self-delusion.

[HFWR]

When you buy stock, you're buying a company. If you were buying a Subway franchise, would you study the books/business plan of Subway stores, or look at charts?

[Nords]

Originally Posted by FinanceDude

have you had any luck with companies selling for 2-3X their cash per share price? I know that used to be all the rage a few years ago. you have to think a company that has $3 a share in cash and is selling around $7-$9, with a good business model, should have the potential for price appreciation...........

Apple Computer, Jan 2001, selling at $16/share with approx $5/share in cash, just before OSX came out.

We sold three months later for our 50% profit and never looked back. In retrospect we should have taken another look in 2003 but we'd moved on.

I'm still a sucker for that kind of price/cash ratio...

[wildcat]

I think the cash per share can be effective. Two important distinctions in my mind and this is from my experience.

1) The screen does well when you have a company/business/management that has done an exceptional job of allocating its cash in the past or has the potential to (i.e. assuming the business is a good one). The hope or idea is that the excess cash will be put to good use in a shareholder friendly manner.

2) The screen does not do as well when you have a company that has done the opposite or destroyed wealth. The lack of hope or idea is that the excess cash will just do enough to keep the business alive for the time being, until the cash is all burned up.

It is up to you to distinguish what will happen with the cash and to not just blindly throw money at a high cash per share stock.

[renferme]

Originally Posted by mickj

Not quite sure why, call me a dirty market timer, but I just sold all of my assets in my 401k and put them in the money market fund. Now the hard part is to figure out how and when I want to start investing again. It is only about 50k that I have invested. I am only up about 8% for the year. Thoughts, suggestions, insults..?

Don't know your age, but you can get about 5% in mmf right now; that's not bad.
If you're young, wait for a good time to re-invest that money. What's a good time;
who knows? I'm not a market timer.
But if you have 20 or more years to retire, you really should get at least 50% into the market and hold on.
BTW, at a 5% return, it will take about 14 years for that money to double.
I assume you're putting money in each month.

[TromboneAl]

To put this in perspective, if you look at some posts on this forum in 2002, and 2003, you'll see some people saying the same thing: "I'm putting my money in cash because interest rates are going up, and there might be a crash."

[FinanceDude]

Originally Posted by TromboneAl

To put this in perspective, if you look at some posts on this forum in 2002, and 2003, you'll see some people saying the same thing: "I'm putting my money in cash because interest rates are going up, and there might be a crash."

Bottom line, you couldn't GIVE a stock away in the summer of 2002.............exactly the right time to invest...........

[semtex]

To invest at 2003 need tons of guts, I bot QQQ at 19.92, a few cents to the low. Took small profit and ran.

[maddythebeagle]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061004/...re/wall_street

----DOW AT NEW HIGH....is it time to get back in

[docbells]

Haven't heard from the OP in a while - Is he still happy with the decision to remove all his money from the market?

[brewer12345]

Originally Posted by Maddy the Turbo Beagle

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061004/...re/wall_street

----DOW AT NEW HIGH....is it time to get back in

Dunno, is Mercury retrograde yet?

[CybrMike]

Since the time you've taken your money out, the market has went up several percentage points. But, this is the same thing that happened in May. Then a few weeks in it all crashed. Who knows, every time I try to time it, I never know when to get back in. So, I just stay in.

[Mwsinron]

Wow talk about missing a huge run up