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Old 01-12-2019, 12:51 PM   #41
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I am paying off mortgages thereby reducing risk and increasing income. However, I'm not paying off the 3.125 percent mortgage on my house. I'm paying off rental mortgages with rates over 5 percent. Every free and clear rental property is another layer of insulation from financial disaster.

I live in the wildfire and earthquake-prone Bay Area. I'm perfectly happy to let Fannie Mae share the risk while I take the interest deduction on my taxes. I sleep better at night this way.
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Old 01-12-2019, 01:59 PM   #42
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I am paying off mortgages thereby reducing risk and increasing income. However, I'm not paying off the 3.125 percent mortgage on my house. I'm paying off rental mortgages with rates over 5 percent. Every free and clear rental property is another layer of insulation from financial disaster.

I live in the wildfire and earthquake-prone Bay Area. I'm perfectly happy to let Fannie Mae share the risk while I take the interest deduction on my taxes. I sleep better at night this way.
Are you sure about that? This may no longer be applicable for most people given the increase in standard deduction, and cap on SALT.

I'm sure Fanny will get paid before you get your equity out of the house in a wild fire, and you'll still have to make the mortgage payments until they get paid. total guess on my part.
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Old 01-12-2019, 02:05 PM   #43
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Straw man argument. No reasonable investor thinks the market always goes up, that's just silly. And resorting to silly arguments just makes your case look weak. And 12 months is not 10, 15, 20 or 30 years. I'm happy with my > $50K gain with the mortgage.

-ERD50
I think the OP was talking more like 2-3 years. $3K per month was mentioned.
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Old 01-12-2019, 03:24 PM   #44
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Are you sure about that? This may no longer be applicable for most people given the increase in standard deduction, and cap on SALT.

I'm sure Fanny will get paid before you get your equity out of the house in a wild fire, and you'll still have to make the mortgage payments until they get paid. total guess on my part.
I find having a lender helps in negotiations with the insurance company. Going through a wind damage roof replacement on a rental with Chase as the servicer on a Fannie loan now. They pay attention to the claim progress.

If my house is totally destroyed, Wells Fargo, as Fannie's representative, will be interested in getting the property rebuilt. If they aren't and State Farm doesn't pay up for some reason, I probably have no equity. Fannie can have the lot. It will be interesting to see what gets rebuilt in all the wildfire areas over the next few years and how insurers and lenders work through this.

I will be a little over the $10k deduction with California income tax and my Prop 13 property taxes. That one stings. Fortunately, I pay a small amount of income tax. If those darn voters would quit approving parcel taxes and fees that are designed to get around Prop 13, I would be under the limit.

I live in California and have a number of rentals. No way would I use the standard deduction. I have far more than $24k in depreciation alone. I pay very little in taxes relative to my income and plan to keep it that way.
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Old 01-12-2019, 05:42 PM   #45
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I find having a lender helps in negotiations with the insurance company. Going through a wind damage roof replacement on a rental with Chase as the servicer on a Fannie loan now. They pay attention to the claim progress.

If my house is totally destroyed, Wells Fargo, as Fannie's representative, will be interested in getting the property rebuilt. If they aren't and State Farm doesn't pay up for some reason, I probably have no equity. Fannie can have the lot. It will be interesting to see what gets rebuilt in all the wildfire areas over the next few years and how insurers and lenders work through this.

I will be a little over the $10k deduction with California income tax and my Prop 13 property taxes. That one stings. Fortunately, I pay a small amount of income tax. If those darn voters would quit approving parcel taxes and fees that are designed to get around Prop 13, I would be under the limit.

I live in California and have a number of rentals. No way would I use the standard deduction. I have far more than $24k in depreciation alone. I pay very little in taxes relative to my income and plan to keep it that way.
I think the passive loss activity doesn't require you to complete schedule A, but comes off on line 6 of the new form, thus preserving the standard deduction. This tax season will be interesting...
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Old 01-12-2019, 06:26 PM   #46
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I think the passive loss activity doesn't require you to complete schedule A, but comes off on line 6 of the new form, thus preserving the standard deduction. This tax season will be interesting...
I haven't reviewed the new forms carefully, but it looks like you fill out the Schedule E's and enter the result on Line 16 of Schedule A. From there the Schedule A number would go to Line 8 on the 1040.

If there had been significant changes, it would be all over the news and a lot of real estate investors dependent on depreciation would be selling properties. No heads up from the CPA either.

ETA: Line 6 refers to income only. Not deductions or losses.

If you have different information, please share.
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Old 01-12-2019, 06:48 PM   #47
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We are looking at paying off our house by April 2019, 59K left(original plan). We are 32&36 we said if there was a drop in the market we would revisit. The house is our only debt. We fully fund 1 retirement 18.5k company puts additional 20k/yr, 2 backdoor roths 11k, 500mo to 529, and 500mo to brokerage account. All of these are automatic we currently put 3k/mo on the house. We have about 5mos emergency/cash funds on hand. The 59k- pay would be coming from my husbands yearly bonus and company stock sell off leaving our cash reserve intact.

Option 1: Complete original plan payoff house then up the monthly Brokerage contributions all other contributions are not affected.

Option: 2 load up 401k to max in these first few months of the year while the market is down paying only original house payment and funding additional $2100 into brokerage. Essentially funneling about 53k to brokerage +19k to 401k within Q1 of the year. The company continues contributions over the year.
Pay off house / invest future what would be future mortgage payments into the market monthly without fail.

My situation in FL

1985-1989 University
1989-1993 Lived at home while working
1993 Bought newly built home , 20 % down, 30 year fixed mortgage
2005 Paid off house
1993-2018 invested in Vanguard index mutual funds and company 401k monthly ( invested more in stock market from 2005-2018 since house had already been paid off)
2018- retired at age 51
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Old 01-15-2019, 08:15 AM   #48
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Pay off house / invest future what would be future mortgage payments into the market monthly without fail.



My situation in FL



1985-1989 University

1989-1993 Lived at home while working

1993 Bought newly built home , 20 % down, 30 year fixed mortgage

2005 Paid off house

1993-2018 invested in Vanguard index mutual funds and company 401k monthly ( invested more in stock market from 2005-2018 since house had already been paid off)

2018- retired at age 51


So basically you got lucky then? Thanks
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Old 01-15-2019, 11:02 AM   #49
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So basically you got lucky then? Thanks
Lucky is winning the lottery, betting it all on black or red and coming out a winner. Investing in the market for almost 30 years is not luck. Just a disciplined lifestyle and not listening to the nay-sayers.
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Old 01-16-2019, 09:54 AM   #50
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I don't expect a risk free investment to beat a mortgage, that's not the 'deal'. The 'deal is' that long term market returns have historically beat low rate mortgages almost every time. I posted on this recently, IIRC every time for 30 year periods and all but maybe 1 or 2 times on 20 year? Against a 3.5% mortgage? I'd have to find the post for the details. And the times the market didn't beat the mortgage, it was very close.

Now, if you don't like those odds, don't take them. It's a personal decision. But don't overstate the risk either.

-ERD50
I think that the problem with this line of thinking is sample size and survivorship bias. We all look at the stock market as a very good and relatively safe long-term bet because we've got ~ 100 years of data from one of the most successful countries in the history of the world. But there is no assurance that the future will be like the past? What if our future stock market returns look more like Japan's last 30 years? Is there something systemic about the US system that prevents that level of investment decline over 30 years? Or were the past 100 years just extremely lucky? Or some of each?

I play poker, and the idea of variance and positive expected value are very difficult to pin down. People who play poker seriously try very hard to figure out whether their results are from luck or skill. Ultimately, its pretty clear that it is almost impossible to tell for sure for most players.

A player can get better cards than average for months/years of playing. So by the time you get enough hours of play in to have any confidence in your win rate ( or loss rate for that matter), the games you are playing in are probably wildly different from when you started.

If a year of annual investing results in a particular country is comparable to a night of playing poker, it may be that the history of the USA's stock market results is not statistically significant enough to be predictive of our future results.

Ultimately, investing in the stock market with borrowed money adds risk, even if you are borrowing that money at very low rates. How much risk is very debatable. It's also not an all or nothing thing. Borrowing 10k to invest in the market adds a tiny amount of risk. Borrowing a million adds a very substantial amount of risk, IMO. When I bought my new house, I took out a 400k mortgage at 3.5%. When I sold my old house, I had about 80k that I could either invest in the market or pay down the mortgage with. I paid down the mortgage, because I was not comfortable with the higher risk of having a very large mortgage, even at very low rates. If I lost my job during a severe market downturn, that 400k mortgage could turn out to be a horrible burden. Now that it is down to about 250k, I'm less concerned about the risk it poses. If I got an 80k windfall now, I'd probably be more inclined to risk it in the market, because a 250k mortgage would be more manageable in the bad scenarios I can imagine.
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:03 AM   #51
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I think that the problem with this line of thinking is sample size and survivorship bias. We all look at the stock market as a very good and relatively safe long-term bet because we've got ~ 100 years of data from one of the most successful countries in the history of the world. But there is no assurance that the future will be like the past? .....
Well, like I said, if you don't like those odds, don't take them.

But most people would say that's about as sure a bet as you are going to find. But there is nothing wrong with deciding you just don't want to play, it is a personal decision.

From an earlier post, with more specific data:

Pay off house?

Quote:
... these show 20 and 30 year rolling average total returns for the stock market:

https://www.crestmontresearch.com/do...Yr-Returns.pdf

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/201...arket-returns/

From what I can see, only three 20 year periods dropped below 5%, and only one barely below 4% (out of 78).

Thirty year returns were all above 7.75%.

So if you can get a mortgage below those rates (pretty easy these days), history is way on your side.

Some people may still not want the slight risk that they could under-perform their mortgage. That's fine, their decision. Just don't try to sell it to me as any sort of great financial decision, or that almost everyone should pay off their mortgage.
-ERD50
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Old 01-16-2019, 10:38 AM   #52
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Well, like I said, if you don't like those odds, don't take them.

But most people would say that's about as sure a bet as you are going to find. But there is nothing wrong with deciding you just don't want to play, it is a personal decision.

From an earlier post, with more specific data:

Pay off house?

-ERD50
What if we include Japan's historical returns in the data set? It then becomes a lot less sure. What makes everyone assume that the US's future returns aren't as likely to look like Japan's past as the US's?

The idea that the stock market is nearly a sure bet because it has been in the past for one specific country over one specific century is not accounting correctly for the real risks going forward, IMO.

Most people in the US seem to think long term investment returns are some sort of birthright. If you start looking globally, it looks a whole lot less sure.

Don't get me wrong. I think it is a very good bet that the US stock market will give decent returns over the next 30 years, but it is nowhere near the lock people seem to think it is.
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Old 01-16-2019, 12:27 PM   #53
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What if we include Japan's historical returns in the data set? It then becomes a lot less sure. ... .
OK. That doesn't change anything I said, if you don't like those odds, don't play. I promise I won't force you.

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... What makes everyone assume that the US's future returns aren't as likely to look like Japan's past as the US's?

The idea that the stock market is nearly a sure bet because it has been in the past for one specific country over one specific century is not accounting correctly for the real risks going forward, IMO.

Most people in the US seem to think long term investment returns are some sort of birthright. If you start looking globally, it looks a whole lot less sure.

Don't get me wrong. I think it is a very good bet that the US stock market will give decent returns over the next 30 years, but it is nowhere near the lock people seem to think it is.
All I've got is history, and even when I apply some "worse than the past" numbers, and assume they hit during the life of my mortgage, it still is likely that it won't hurt very much at all, versus the very high chance of a gain. I still like the odds, and I really like the money I've earned (~ $60,000) since my 2003 Refi.

How are you handling this for your portfolio? What AA do you use? We could have runaway inflation, we could have a bond market crash. At some point you just need to have some faith, and make a decision. We don't need to make the same decision, there is room for different takes on it. But at some point, all this fear of what-ifs will have you working until the day you die.

-ERD50
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Old 01-16-2019, 01:58 PM   #54
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OK. That doesn't change anything I said, if you don't like those odds, don't play. I promise I won't force you.



All I've got is history, and even when I apply some "worse than the past" numbers, and assume they hit during the life of my mortgage, it still is likely that it won't hurt very much at all, versus the very high chance of a gain. I still like the odds, and I really like the money I've earned (~ $60,000) since my 2003 Refi.

How are you handling this for your portfolio? What AA do you use? We could have runaway inflation, we could have a bond market crash. At some point you just need to have some faith, and make a decision. We don't need to make the same decision, there is room for different takes on it. But at some point, all this fear of what-ifs will have you working until the day you die.

-ERD50
I'm 70 stocks/30 stable value, and I have a 250k 30-year mortgage on my primary residence at 3.5%

It's not that I am particularly bearish on the stock market's long term prospects in general. I just think that things are riskier long-term than just looking at historical returns of specifically US stocks would indicate. We are essentially cherry-picking one of the best 100 year runs of any one country in the history of investing.

Saying that the market has never had a 30-year downturn is kind of like the logic that lead us into the financial crisis-- "There's never been a nation-wide decline in housing prices, so we can leverage up." Our historical sample size is not really very big. Plan for results that are potentially outside of the historical sample if you are using borrowed money, because leverage is about the most dangerous financial tool there is.

I would recommend that anyone choosing to borrow money to invest in the stock market look at the 30-year performance of the Nikkei 225 before doing so. That is 30 years of negative performance from a wealthy country that really hasn't had terrible economic results. They haven't collapsed or had their currency inflate away to nothing. They've just kinda stagnated.
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Old 01-16-2019, 02:15 PM   #55
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....
Saying that the market has never had a 30-year downturn is kind of like the logic that lead us into the financial crisis-- ...

I would recommend that anyone choosing to borrow money to invest in the stock market look at the 30-year performance of the Nikkei 225 before doing so. That is 30 years of negative performance from a wealthy country that really hasn't had terrible economic results. They haven't collapsed or had their currency inflate away to nothing. They've just kinda stagnated.
I'm not disagreeing with you, but I'm also not saying that since the 30 year history has been good, that it could never be bad. I never say never.

And it's telling that the worst scenario you have is stagnation for 30 years. Sure, the investment didn't help pay the mortgage. But if that's the worst we can quote (and yes, it could be worse than that), I feel pretty good about my chances.

Also, my mortgage is not a high % of my portfolio, so the worst case is not a killer, and the 'good case' is good, but also not exactly life changing. But again, the odds make it attractive for me.

-ERD50
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Old 01-16-2019, 02:48 PM   #56
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I'm not disagreeing with you, but I'm also not saying that since the 30 year history has been good, that it could never be bad. I never say never.

And it's telling that the worst scenario you have is stagnation for 30 years. Sure, the investment didn't help pay the mortgage. But if that's the worst we can quote (and yes, it could be worse than that), I feel pretty good about my chances.

Also, my mortgage is not a high % of my portfolio, so the worst case is not a killer, and the 'good case' is good, but also not exactly life changing. But again, the odds make it attractive for me.

-ERD50
Yes, the risk is more modest if your mortgage is not large. I discussed that, and for me I was happier paying down the mortgage when it was 400k. I'm less concerned with it at 250k. That number is going to be different for everyone.

Japan is not really the worst-case scenario. That's just a bad scenario that may be likely enough to prepare for (say a 5% chance)

The worst-case scenario is my investments going to near zero for various calamitous reasons that really aren't terribly unlikely when you are talking about 30-100 year time frames. Revolutions occur, currencies collapse, and wealth gets destroyed or seized often enough historically that someone reading the history books should probably understand that there really are no 99% "safe" withdrawal rates over those lengths of time. On the plus side though, when those events occur, most people have bigger concerns than their investments
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Old 01-16-2019, 03:03 PM   #57
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Eliminating debt has a great psychological benefit for many. You no longer have to keep your job to pay your mortgage, car loan, or credit card debt. This, for me, made work more tolerable. After I paid off my car loan, I felt more free. After I sold my condo and was 100% debt-free, my attitude towards work shifted. It became more tolerable, as I did not HAVE to be here. It became a choice, where working longer gets me more travel in retirement. I know this doesn't altogether make sense, but people are emotional, sometimes irrational beings. We are not Data from Star Trek!
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Old Yesterday, 01:30 PM   #58
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Eliminating debt has a great psychological benefit for many. You no longer have to keep your job to pay your mortgage, car loan, or credit card debt. This, for me, made work more tolerable. It became a choice, where working longer gets me more travel in retirement.

Bill, I agree with your thinking 100%. I am in the same situation.......paid off house, no debt and still w**k for MegaCorp. Investing & saving more for retirement.

It's nice knowing you can just walk away without even thinking about it.

OP- Good luck with what ever option you choose.
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Old Yesterday, 02:46 PM   #59
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Eliminating debt has a great psychological benefit for many. You no longer have to keep your job to pay your mortgage, car loan, or credit card debt. This, for me, made work more tolerable. After I paid off my car loan, I felt more free. After I sold my condo and was 100% debt-free, my attitude towards work shifted. It became more tolerable, as I did not HAVE to be here. It became a choice, where working longer gets me more travel in retirement. I know this doesn't altogether make sense, but people are emotional, sometimes irrational beings. We are not Data from Star Trek!
We paid cash for our house ($210K) in 2012, partly because of what happened in 2008-9, partly because we hate debt (the state of owing money). I don't look at debt as "good" or "bad" it is what it is, debt. The calculations mean nothing to us. Unless we bought a house with "0" interest, that might be a different story. It's all a matter of opinion.
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Old Yesterday, 03:45 PM   #60
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Eliminating debt has a great psychological benefit for many. You no longer have to keep your job to pay your mortgage, car loan, or credit card debt. This, for me, made work more tolerable. After I paid off my car loan, I felt more free. After I sold my condo and was 100% debt-free, my attitude towards work shifted. It became more tolerable, as I did not HAVE to be here. It became a choice, where working longer gets me more travel in retirement. I know this doesn't altogether make sense, but people are emotional, sometimes irrational beings. We are not Data from Star Trek!
I wanted to highlight that piece because that is the crux of the discussion here. If you hadn't paid off your house, that money would be invested somewhere. It doesn't disappear.
So in all truth, you're net worth is probably very close to the same as it was if you hadn't paid off the house. The money is just in a different bucket, house vs investment. The psychological piece is the comfort of knowing you have no debt and feeling good about it. When in fact, you are no richer or poorer either way, having a mortgage or not.
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