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Old 11-28-2009, 11:50 PM   #41
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Meaningless without context.
Are you saying this survey is an indicator of future performance of the stock market?
How closely has it predicted moves in the stock market in the past?
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Old 11-29-2009, 11:14 AM   #42
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Meaningless without context.
Are you saying this survey is an indicator of future performance of the stock market?
How closely has it predicted moves in the stock market in the past?

AAII went to 79% bearish on the EXACT bottom (666). This was the worst (best) reading EVER.

One big point I see is that expectations are low. Money is on the sidelines earning .01% in money market funds. People will be buying into this market.
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Old 11-29-2009, 12:01 PM   #43
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Recession Over ? It sure is at Goldman,Sachs & Co. The company is boasting about a net of 35 million a day. T.A.R.P. and the stimulus plan is working !
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Old 11-29-2009, 01:08 PM   #44
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i think its cute that the recession end is still something people believe in. its almost like santa claus. it'd sure hurt a heck of a lot more waking up to reality than when u found out santa wasnt real. the recession aint goin nowhere. so what do u do? not sure if you guys are familiar with gerald celente but according to him, its here to stay.
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Old 11-30-2009, 09:04 PM   #45
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i think its cute that the recession end is still something people believe in. its almost like santa claus. it'd sure hurt a heck of a lot more waking up to reality than when u found out santa wasnt real. the recession aint goin nowhere. so what do u do? not sure if you guys are familiar with gerald celente but according to him, its here to stay.
Is this the guy?

LOL! Thanks for the laugh. Market's up 27% since this guy's "bold predictions."

Keep holding cash

Keep shorting the market

Keep watching the rally

Buffett says the bottom is in and we're heading higher. What's Gerald Celente's net worth?
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Old 11-30-2009, 09:23 PM   #46
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Market's up 27% since this guy's "bold predictions."
I, personally, would not make the leap from the stock market is up to the economy has recovered/is anywhere near out of the woods.

But, of course, we each makes our bets and takes our chances.
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Old 11-30-2009, 09:55 PM   #47
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I do not know about the rest of the country but here where I live what he stated is coming true. We have no jobs available to speak of. Gold is going up. I think we are already in a depression. I know that everyone here with large amounts of cash in the market do not want to hear or believe this but look around. See how many homes are for sale or in foreclosure. Scary uh ? Now, I am about to throw some cash in the stock market
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Old 11-30-2009, 09:56 PM   #48
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Now, I am about to throw some cash in the stock market.
We've got you right where we want you...
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Old 11-30-2009, 11:14 PM   #49
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I do not know about the rest of the country but here where I live what he stated is coming true. We have no jobs available to speak of. Gold is going up. I think we are already in a depression. I know that everyone here with large amounts of cash in the market do not want to hear or believe this but look around. See how many homes are for sale or in foreclosure. Scary uh ? Now, I am about to throw some cash in the stock market

The people that still have their money in the market are there because they understand the risks and want to have their dollars in the medium that gives them the greatest potential for sustainable long term growth. The people who sold last winter/this spring are the ones who do not want to hear how things are turning around. Those that sold are sitting around hoping it gets worse hoping for a crash that will never come.

Those that wanted out got out and now own CD's, govies, and fixed annuities.

Over half of investors are bearish. 2/3 believe the market will not go up the intermediate future.

No one left to sell. No one left to sell.
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Old 12-01-2009, 06:05 AM   #50
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2/3 believe the market will not go up the intermediate future
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to a record above $1,200 an ounce in New York trading as a weaker dollar, rising government debt and concern over Iran’s nuclear program spurred investors to seek a haven.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=akAfKcKiyUpk
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Old 12-01-2009, 08:34 AM   #51
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2/3 believe the market will not go up the intermediate future
Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Gold rose to a record above $1,200 an ounce in New York trading as a weaker dollar, rising government debt and concern over Iran’s nuclear program spurred investors to seek a haven.

Gold Climbs to Record on Inflation Outlook as Dollar Declines - Bloomberg.com
Commodities are going to be a great place to be. I'd have no problem with 5-7% in gold.
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Old 12-01-2009, 08:40 AM   #52
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Personally observed recession signs: Neighboring business went out of business. Sister's BF got his hours cut and lost his health insurance. Friend's mid size business has laid off a number of people and Christmas sales are down 25% from last year, which were down 40% from the prior year. Relative still laid off after more than a year and can't find a job.

My economist cousin believes that the market is too high and will go down.
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Old 12-01-2009, 10:15 AM   #53
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My economist cousin believes that the market is too high and will go down.
I am not an economist, but I would take that one step further to say that the market will go down, then up, then down, then up (lather, rinse, repeat). OK, sorry if that was a little snarky but I couldn't help myself!

Anyway, I would not completely discount the possibility that the general trend could be up for a while, given that we have a bazillion baby boomers approaching retirement and (hopefully) building their retirement accounts. Supply and demand. On the other hand, my crystal ball is a bit cloudy regarding future market trends.
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Old 12-01-2009, 11:15 AM   #54
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I am not an economist, but I would take that one step further to say that the market will go down, then up, then down, then up (lather, rinse, repeat). OK, sorry if that was a little snarky but I couldn't help myself!

Anyway, I would not completely discount the possibility that the general trend could be up for a while, given that we have a bazillion baby boomers approaching retirement and (hopefully) building their retirement accounts. Supply and demand. On the other hand, my crystal ball is a bit cloudy regarding future market trends.


Mine just shows the world over-run by orcs and ending in flame and destruction...

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Old 12-01-2009, 11:45 AM   #55
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The recession is far from over here in Florida .There are still tons of foreclosures . My SIL lost his job and is having a hard time finding another . My SO' s son's business is so rocky we are not sure it will survive and his other son constantly worries about layoffs .
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Old 12-01-2009, 12:05 PM   #56
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Mine just shows the world over-run by orcs and ending in flame and destruction...

DD
LOVE IT!!! Now that is a NEAT looking crystal ball.
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Old 12-02-2009, 08:15 AM   #57
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I am not an economist, but I would take that one step further to say that the market will go down, then up, then down, then up (lather, rinse, repeat). OK, sorry if that was a little snarky but I couldn't help myself!

Anyway, I would not completely discount the possibility that the general trend could be up for a while, given that we have a bazillion baby boomers approaching retirement and (hopefully) building their retirement accounts. Supply and demand. On the other hand, my crystal ball is a bit cloudy regarding future market trends.

Yeah, for sure. She believes that it will occur in the near term. I believe that I have no ability to predict the near term or even the long term. But she does know a lot more about our economy and how it works that I ever will.


I stopped in at my old workplace yesterday. Everyone is very busy there, some because it is a recession and the legal fall outs that inevitably occur. So even bad times can be good times for some. And those lawyers support families and staff and staff families and they can buy things from cars to groceries, helping the economy.

When I left the elevator opened up on the office and five blue suited lawyers exited the elevator. I only knew one of them, the rest were new young associates. The firm newsletter spoke of yet another baby pool. People working, people making babies. Just like the good old days.
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Old 12-02-2009, 06:46 PM   #58
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Interesting thoughts. I certainly sense a disconnect (not just a lag) between Wall Street and Main Street. Hard for me to imagine anything but a tepid U shaped recovery with lots of fits and starts for both the market and the economy.

The coastal resort area we are FIRED in (Outer Banks, NC) continues to do ok with with summer vacation home rentals. The strong restaurants, retailers, and activity businesses survive, and sometimes thrive, but the weak ones go under quickly. In general people don't want to give up those 1-2 weeks of precious vacation but they are spending with extreme caution. Real estate sales and construction are still in freefall with the bottom still not in site. Many long distance vacation home owners who purchased recently are well underwater with neg cash flow. Not surprising to see many short sales and foreclosures. Things are selling at the right price and aging boomers with $ looking for retirement-vacation spots are actually helping to stabilize things

Commercial and Charter fishing were both struggling before the crisis, and now it's even tougher with the economy and dwindling fisheries both contributing. My semi-ER occupation (kiteboarding) is doing pretty well considering. Plenty of affluent adventure types still spending $$ to travel, learn the sport, and buy gear, although it's just a teeny tiny cottage industry to start with.

My old VC backed biz was 6 years of constant uncertainty so at least I got use to the environment
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Old 12-03-2009, 11:54 AM   #59
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Just more evidence that this will be a prolonged recovery: Productivity revised down, still best in 6 years - MarketWatch

Companies are getting leaner and meaner, doing more with fewer workers and paying them less to do it. It will take time for the pendulum to swing back the other way which bodes poorly for the spending power of the US consumer and likely a long, slow recovery.

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Old 12-03-2009, 10:09 PM   #60
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Hard to say. Personally, I was getting 10-20% raises in the early 80s, then 2-3% until the late 90s, then back to 7-15% for a few years, then back to 3% until I retired. What goes around comes around. If you push something hard enough, it WILL fall over.
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