San Francisco Area Real Estate Cooling Off?

[cube_rat]

This is an example of houses I've noticed in the last 3-4 months sitting on the market for several weeks and then the price gets slashed:

http://www.craigslist.org/pen/rfs/89360077.html

The SF Bay Area in the last 3 years had escalating housing prices reaching epic proportions. 900 square foot, broken down, cockaroach palaces were selling for $650+. It's about time the insane real estate market in the SF Bay Area slows down. Prices are outrageous here! Creative, borderline slimey financing sure didn't help any. I'd like to see what happens with when housing prices drop 20-30% and people owe more on the homes than the market value (think southern Cal in the late 80's early 90's).

 

[Brat]

I don't think the decline you describe will happen unless there is a local 9/11.  However, it would be nice if your home prices took a breather.

 

[Mr._johngalt]

This is an example of houses I've noticed in the last 3-4 months sitting on the market for several weeks and then the price gets slashed:

http://www.craigslist.org/pen/rfs/89360077.html

The SF Bay Area in the last 3 years had escalating housing prices reaching epic proportions.  900 square foot, broken down, cockaroach palaces were selling for $650+.  It's about time the insane real estate market in the SF Bay Area slows down. Prices are outrageous here!  Creative, borderline slimey financing sure didn't help any.  I'd like to see what happens with when housing prices drop 20-30% and people owe more on the homes than the market value (think southern Cal in the late 80's early 90's).

Just for fun...........as far as I know there is only one home for sale in our sub. right now.  They have been selling like hotcakes ever since we moved
here almost 4 years ago.  Most homes are on waterfront lots with 50 to 100
feet of frontage.

Anyway, the one home for sale has 50 feet on the river with a fabulous view.  It has been completely redone inside and out.  I would guess it at about 900 SF and it is on cement pilings since we are in a flood plain.
One of the nicer (small) homes in the sub.  They started out at 155K
and are down to 145K.  I am guessing it will go for around 125K.


JG

 

[JPatrick]

Perhaps typical of some who while reading the paper over breakfast one day discovered that prices were doubling in some place in SoCal, so they say, "why not," I'd sell for $XXXX if we could. Let's give it a go and see if we get lucky.  A few in our area I know are doing this, but who knows, if you can sell at the top and live in your van for a year you may be able to buy at the bottom.

 

[Brat]

Location, location, location. It really doesn't matter what real estate prices are in IA if you work in CA. Now, once you ER and are of a mind to shop nation wide homes in IA could be considered.

 

[wabmester]

I'd like to see what happens with when housing prices drop 20-30% and people owe more on the homes than the market value (think southern Cal in the late 80's early 90's).

Ah, the sweet smell of schadenfreude.   But I think the fall-out could be worse than just a few upside-down home owners.   Housing prices are high nationally (well, except for Texas).   You might be amazed at what happens when the "wealth effect" shifts into reverse.

FWIW, prices are still going up, but the rate is slowing.   In SoCal, inventory is increasing and sales are slowing a bit, but it's still pretty hot.

If I remember the way things played out in 1990, you'll see two segments fall the fastest and hardest: long-distant commuting suburbs  (think Riverside and Ontario in SoCal) and high-end homes.   Once you see prices dropping in those segments, it might be a good time to pull the rip-cord.

 

[LovesLife]

My cousin lives in SF and makes about 50K per year. She has lived in a rent controlled apartment for about 20 years. Gotta love rent control. Anyway, she, and a few other friends of hers would love to buy an apartment building and use the rents from the other tenants to pay the mortgage. I am simply amazed when she talk about 2 million dollar buildings. The price doesn't seem to phase her as if that kind of debt is normal. It would scare the heck out of me. She was recently looking at another building for 1.2 million that had 4 flats. 2 out of the 4 were occupied. It was listed one day and sold the next.

LL

 

[cube_rat]

(think Riverside and Ontario in SoCal) and high-end homes. Once you see prices dropping in those segments, it might be a good time to pull the rip-cord.

Riverside, Ontario and Moreno Valley got smacked pretty hard around that time. People were turning over the keys to their houses to the bank

 

[Nords]

Ah, the sweet smell of schadenfreude.   

Pronunciation: 'shä-d&n-"froi-d&
Function: noun
Etymology: German, from Schaden (damage) + Freude (joy)

: enjoyment obtained from the troubles of others

One of my favorite words, right up there with defenestration & dasypygal...

 

[Martha]

My favorites are ennui and denouement. Try using those in the work place.

 

[TromboneAl]

No ennui for me, 'cause I've got lots of schadenfreude from watchin' this here real estate denouement.

 

[Michael Moore]

We paid our house out here near the beach off a couple of years ago, and since we don't anticipate moving we don't have much concern about what way the market moves.

"Paid off house" has such a pleasant sound to it.

cheers,
Michael

 

[SLC Tortfeasor]

From my word of the day calendar today:

omphaloskepsis : contemplation of one's navel as an aid to meditation; also: indisposition to motion, exertion, or change. 

Example: "Having studied omphaloskepsis for many years, Nords could not help but smile whenever a colleage accused him of navel-gazing."