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Stock Market Crash This Decade?
Old 08-10-2004, 07:51 PM   #1
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Stock Market Crash This Decade?

Are you youngsters hoping for this? * *Interested in thoughts and positions on this.

TD *

..... : addicted to investing $25 - $30 K per year...plays with retirement calculators and spreadsheets daily.

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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?
Old 08-10-2004, 08:10 PM   #2
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?

By stock market crash, do you mean a relatively isolated one (ala 1987) or one with severe economic repurcussions?


I wouldn't mind the first... I'm having a hard time finding a place to invest right now, that has any value.
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?
Old 08-10-2004, 08:45 PM   #3
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?

Your investments should not be only in the stock market. Spread the money out between bonds, stocks, real estate, gold, and cash. I recommend putting some cash in foreign currency like swiss francs.

Yes, I feel severe economic crash coming our way in the next decade.
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?
Old 08-11-2004, 08:13 AM   #4
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?

Dunno if a crash is on the way... but a sideways market for any extended period of time would be a bummer. Seems likely, the way P/E ratios are still above the long term market trend.

Regarding the hopes of a crash, being able to buy on the way down and at the bottom would help us youngsters, but I'm guessing some of the veteran ERs would take exception to our hopes.

The economic fallout of a 'crash' wouldn't be a good thing IMO. Although I guess a silver lining can always exist... perhaps people will learn that their heavily leveraged lifestyles aren't sustainable and recognize that a financial cushion, of some type or another, is the only way to fly.
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?
Old 08-11-2004, 11:35 AM   #5
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?

I pee'd alway a lot of after tax money in the 70's and 80's on gold, real estate, foreign stocks, etc, - waiting for the end of the world after the 73-74 debacle. Luckily, in 401k - DCA'd ala Ben Graham 50/50 S&P 500/guaranted insurance contracts - did go 100% stock after 1987. Today 401k rollover is 90% of our ER - counting the SO. Balanced index buys on the way down and sells on the way up. Big dog is 2.26% SEC yield and a back up. If I need more in the stretch I will go 40/60 instead of 60/40 index or heaven forbid - abandon principle and buy a Wellesley to get higher SEC yield. Cash money is non cola defined pen. plus div. stocks - today. A 50- 60% stock drop hopefully won't hurt div.'s - possibly an opportunity to buy.
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?
Old 08-11-2004, 05:45 PM   #6
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?

Quote:
A 50- 60% stock drop hopefully won't hurt div.'s - possibly an opportunity to buy.
One thing sure- if a 50 to 60% drop would only be "possibly an opportunity to buy" then those same indexes/securities are definitely a sell at today's prices.

In neither case will we know what is going to happen. The only difference is now, the investment is valued at x. After the drop you hypothesize, it would be at X-.5x!

Sell now, avoid the June rush.

Mikey
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?
Old 08-11-2004, 05:51 PM   #7
 
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?

Quote:
Sell now, avoid the June rush.
This is only possible if you own stocks, but then again if you are like ***** and are convinced that the market will drop you can always sell short.
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?
Old 08-11-2004, 10:15 PM   #8
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?

Your assuming after the stock market drops that it will go back to it's orginal highs. Right now, most stocks in the market are overvalued. The earnings of most these companies don't justify the value of stock. The stock price is most likely caused by speculation in the market.

If stock drops to new lows, it could regain the speculative prices now in the market. In fact, the market could continue trading without any real gains. Then your investment would be eaten by inflation.
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?
Old 08-12-2004, 06:13 PM   #9
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Re: Stock Market Crash This Decade?

I'm rooting for a short term drop real soon, like before Monday. Woohoo! Dive Dow Dive!

(I just cranked up my 401(k) contributions to $1k per month and have a purchase due early next week.)
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