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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-19-2004, 08:51 PM   #21
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

I'm at 11.7% this year.
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-19-2004, 09:00 PM   #22
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

the gain in my 401k mutual funds was 8.6% before today's skid. unlike today, i didn't own much in the way of DRIPS at the start of this year 3%>. the big Wal-Mart is up like 6% this year. so according to my spreadsheets my "bread and butter" portfoio approx. 90% of my worth, is up 80.67%, and since jan. 2001 i'm up 1,387%. now mind you, that gain is on a beginning portfolio of less than $10,000 : i'd rather have a gain of 8% on a portfolio of $1,000,000 than my gain of 80% on my beginning portfolio of about $70,000 oh well, i'll be there some day i hope
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-19-2004, 11:22 PM   #23
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

I just started a spreadsheet this month to track my net worth. It's simple and I only list five things on there.....individual stocks, index funds, cash/money market, Roth IRA, and TSP.

Maybe a year from now I could give out my returns when I figure them out.
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-20-2004, 02:43 AM   #24
 
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

Here is how I track my net worth, and I do it
compulsively. I reach into the nearest wastebasket and find a piece of paper without printing/writing on one side. It should be at least the size if a No. 10 envelope. Then, I find a working pen or pencil. I list all assets and subtract
any liabilities. My net worth appears.
I don't save it anywhere cause I can do it again
anytime in 5 minutes

BTW, I continue to invest in long term bonds
including some junk, but this is all "forever" money.
I hate watching the NAV bounce around as interest rates change, but I need the income and CDs/MMs
ain't makin' it for me these days.

John Galt
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-20-2004, 01:02 PM   #25
 
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

Quote:
Hey Cut-Throat, you have got me worried man!
How could you be that far off on the return on
your investments? *I know my situation is pretty
simple, but still...............Hey! *I found a place for my
excess cash. *Long term corp. notes, rated just over
"junk status". *7%.............I can live with that on my
"forever" money.

John Galt
Aren't you a little leary of a company that would currently pay 7% to borrow money?

Whenever I hear something like this I am reminded of the saying "More money has been lost chasing yield than at the end of a gun barrel"

This to me sounds more risky than investing in a stock index fund
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-20-2004, 01:05 PM   #26
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

I'm up 17% in my cash broker account and up 7.3% in my IRA. (I invest short term in only the best of best NASDAQ stocks.)
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-20-2004, 04:57 PM   #27
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

Quote:
Here is how I track my net worth, and I do it
compulsively. *I reach into the nearest wastebasket and find a piece of paper without printing/writing on one side. *It should be at least the size if a No. 10 envelope. *Then, I find a working pen or pencil. *I list all assets and subtract
any liabilities. * My net worth appears.
I don't save it anywhere cause I can do it again
anytime in 5 minutes

BTW, I continue to invest in long term bonds
including some junk, but this is all "forever" money.
I hate watching the NAV bounce around as interest rates change, but I need the income and CDs/MMs
ain't makin' it for me these days.

John Galt
JG, do yourself a favor and be careful with junk or low investment grade bonds. By all indications, these assets are historically overvalued, and sorely due for a correction. If you are on the wrong end of it, you will be sorry. Find something like a high yield CD instead and wait for junk yields to get more attractive.
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-20-2004, 07:02 PM   #28
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

Quote:

JG, do yourself a favor and be careful with junk or low investment grade bonds. *By all indications, these assets are historically overvalued, and sorely due for a correction. *If you are on the wrong end of it, you will be sorry. *Find something like a high yield CD instead and wait for junk yields to get more attractive.
Right. Just look at a chart of LQD. It's had quite a rise and is now flattening.

But there is some potentially good news: the economy is doing well, default rates are low (at least the last time I read about it) and corporate profits are pretty solid. This historically has been good for corporate bonds in general.

But I would definitely have my finger on the trigger and would pull it at any sign of a correction.
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-20-2004, 09:17 PM   #29
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

Michael Milkin, a man i just finished reading a biography of, felt that junk bonds were a very "undervalued" part of the investment spectrum... now granted he served some jail time : he was a genius, and allthough i haven't looked into it, junk bonds can go up, while compensating the owner for holding them, while the only way AAA bonds can go is down. it appeals to my "value investor" side, and maybe thats why its so appealing to me, maybe i'll invest in some junk bonds in the future..... hmmmmmm....
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-21-2004, 06:38 AM   #30
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

Quote:

Right. *Just look at a chart of LQD. *It's had quite a rise and is now flattening.

But there is some potentially good news: *the economy is doing well, default rates are low (at least the last time I read about it) and corporate profits are pretty solid. *This historically has been good for corporate bonds in general.

But I would definitely have my finger on the trigger and would pull it at any sign of a correction. *
LQD is actually composed of investment grade corporates, not junk.

The problem is that spreads on junk/low investment grade debt have slipped to historically low levels as investors chase yield. Although the default rate has come down from 2002-2003 levels, it is still reasonably high, and the junk default rate is starting to creep up. Not the time to be in junk, IMO.

I don't mind taking additional calculated risk, but I want to be compensated for it.
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-21-2004, 06:44 AM   #31
 
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

Hi brewer12345.......and that's why I have junk in my
bag of tricks. I am taking a calculated risk and I believe I am
being compensated accordingly. Free enterprise...........
you gotta love it.

John Galt
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-21-2004, 08:42 AM   #32
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

Quote:

LQD is actually composed of investment grade corporates, not junk.
Oops - you're right. *Sorry everyone. *You can go to www.etfconnect.com, type in "LQD" and see the grades of bonds that they have concentrated on. *You can see, though, that the great majority of their investment is in the lowest two investment grades. *Still not junk though...

Does anyone know if the junk yield is less than 4% below the corporate yield? *Isn't that a warning sign right there? *

How can one keep from getting stung with negative returns like the 1990's returned? *(In the early 90's they were yielding 30% returns and then the bust happened and they actually yielded very negative returns.)

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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-21-2004, 09:18 AM   #33
 
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

Hi Whisper. A couple of comments. First you meant to say "yielding less than 4% ABOVE the corporate yield"? (By corporate I assume you mean investment grade). Right?

Two ways you can be saved if the junk starts to
head south. Pick the right time to get out, or
(in the absense of default) hold to maturity.

John Galt
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-21-2004, 09:46 AM   #34
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

Quote:
Hi Whisper. *A couple of comments. *First you meant to say "yielding less than 4% ABOVE the corporate yield"? *(By corporate I assume you mean investment grade). *Right?

Two ways you can be saved if the junk starts to
head south. *Pick the right time to get out, or
(in the absense of default) hold to maturity.

John Galt
Yes, that's what I meant to say. I'm not doing too well...

Here's my q for you: I'm interested to know what will be your "trigger points" for pulling out? Do you have a fairly well-defined exit strategy?
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-21-2004, 05:44 PM   #35
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

These numbers are from April 04, when everything is rebased to coincide with tax return time.

Property:
Overall: +13.25%
Excluding own Residence: +13.7%

Equities:
Major Index and Blue Chip Fund: + 44%
Aggressive Growth Fund: +80%

Child Education Fund: +10%

Cash savings increase of around 25%.

Overall net worth up by about 28%, YTD.

NB: Large part of the equities gains (and part of property gain) results from a VERY VERY LOW entry point into China/Hong Kong/Asian Markets between July 03 and May 04, both during and immediately following the last Asian financial market shakedown and the SARS outbreak.

Simon888







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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-24-2004, 06:02 PM   #36
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

Simon,
Good on ya', mate!
Great returns.-- congrats.

I've a soft spot for emerging markets as, with proper timing, they can be real rocket for capital appreciation. 'Course then you get periods like 94-2000 where they just sit around (or wors, tank) and break your heart.

Now I am past the individual stocks and timing things, so I'm just going to have to ride it out with the indexes and big funds, but for the last two years they've been sweet. Won't last forever, though!

80% this year is really extraordinary. Well done!

ESRBob



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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-25-2004, 02:10 PM   #37
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

Bob,

You have hit the nail on the head, capital appeciation is our driver as we are only mid-30's (although to my neices that means ''Old!) and are both working. My big bet was on the Hong Kong market in the middle of 03, at the height of the SARS outbreak. 25% of our net worth went into HK real estate with another 15% into stocks.

If one wanted a classic case study of the ''Madness of Crowds'' along with an embodiment of Ben/Warren's "Mr. Market'' in Manic Depression than HK/Asia after SARS was it. The most egregiously underpriced but solid global companies could be bought - I took a very deep breath and repeated the Buffett mantra of ''Be greedy when others are fearful''. Got to keep an eye on the pendulum swinging the other way though.

Simon
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-25-2004, 03:35 PM   #38
 
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

around 6.5%

current allocation ~ 55%/35%/10%

US Large Cap - 35.5%
US Mid Cap - 9%
Small Cap - 6%

International - 5%

Short Trm Invest Bnd - 14%
Int Muni Bnd - 19

REIT - 1%
long Bnd - 1%

Cash - 10%
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-26-2004, 03:28 AM   #39
 
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

I am answering Whisper's queries (a bit late) about
my "trigger points" and "exit strategy" for my junk
bonds. Whisper, I do not get that sophisticated, but here is how I am looking at it. If CD rates come back
(at least 1% up on 5 year term), I would shift SOME
junk money into CDs, UNLESS my NAV had dropped too
far for me to stomach. In that case, I revert to the "forever" money idea and just cash my interest checks until the bonds mature or I expire, whichever comes first. The tricky part for me was deciding how much
"forever money" I needed. I have that pretty well fixed
now, so if the bond values plummet but I still get my
monthly checks, I should be fine. I tell you though,
it took some conversion in my thinking to accept that
my NAV could bounce around. I was used to CDs
where what you put in is always there. Couldn't stand
the puny rates though, and that's when I made the great leap into junk/near junk. So far it's been fine.

John Galt
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?
Old 11-28-2004, 06:34 AM   #40
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Re: What's Your YTD Return?

Quote:
I am answering Whisper's queries (a bit late) about
my "trigger points" and "exit strategy" for my junk
bonds. *Whisper, I do not get that sophisticated, but here is how I am looking at it. *If CD rates come back
(at least 1% up on 5 year term), *I would shift SOME
junk money into CDs, *UNLESS my NAV had dropped too
far for me to stomach. *In that case, I revert to the "forever" money idea and just cash my interest checks until the bonds mature or I expire, whichever comes first. *The tricky part for me was deciding how much
"forever money" I needed. *I have that pretty well fixed
now, so if the bond values plummet but I still get my
monthly checks, I should be fine. *I tell you though,
it took some conversion in my thinking to accept that
my NAV could bounce around. *I was used to CDs
where what you put in is always there. *Couldn't stand
the puny rates though, and that's when I made the great leap into junk/near junk. *So far it's been fine.

John Galt
Makes sense. You mean the NAV of your mutual funds, right?
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