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1973 sanity check
Old 11-17-2007, 08:48 PM   #1
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1973 sanity check

Dory36, I was playing with a new SWR calc by bob90245 and found some differences in the failure sequences.

His results for small stocks differed from yours, which I attributed to different sources for the data series.

As a sanity check I ran 100% S&P 500 with a 4% WR on FIREcalc, Bob's calc, and intercst's calc.

FIREcalc showed a failure in 1973 in year 27 (with a 0% ER).

Both Bob's calc and intercst's calc show success in 1973 with a 30-year terminal value of around 30% of the initial portfolio.

Any idea why FIREcalc differs from these two calcs? I would have expected that the S&P 500 and CPI data series would be the same on all three calcs.

Bob's calc is here:

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Old 11-17-2007, 11:05 PM   #2
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Has Intercsts' calculator been updated with post-2000 data?

Cb
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Old 11-17-2007, 11:32 PM   #3
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Yes, he has a version that includes 2003 data, which just clears the 30 year period starting in 1973.
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