Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Am I inputting things right? it's showing 100%
Old 09-06-2017, 11:59 AM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 539
Am I inputting things right? it's showing 100%

I chose $50k annual spend. 35 yrs of retirement. Current portfolio $550k, will add approx $40k each year until retirement date say 2025. SS starting in 2034 totaling $20k per year.

FIRECalc Results
Your spending in every year after the first year will be adjusted for inflation, so the spending power is preserved.
Because you indicated a future retirement date (2025), the withdrawals won't start until that year. Your contributions will continue until then. The tested period is 8 years of preretirement plus 27 years of retirement, or 35 years.
FIRECalc looked at the 112 possible 35 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $550,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 112 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $87,569 to $8,479,580, with an average at the end of $2,651,282. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 35 years. FIRECalc found that 0 cycles failed, for a success rate of 100.0%.
__________________

__________________
Target FI age /year: 50/2025
dvalley is online now   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 09-06-2017, 12:02 PM   #2
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 539
Ah I see what might be the problem, I think I need to input 43yrs (35yrs of retirement and 8yrs of pre-retirement). Even so it's showing 98%. I thought I was way off track.
__________________

__________________
Target FI age /year: 50/2025
dvalley is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2017, 12:04 PM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 294
In my opinion, FIRECalc result is usually close to the 4% rule. Your result looks fine.
__________________
flyingaway is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2017, 02:58 PM   #4
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 539
Thanks, it's just that Personal Capital's retirement planner (also Monte Carlo based I think) gives me very different results (48% or so success rate) with similar numbers.
__________________
dvalley is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-06-2017, 03:30 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 2,268
Monte Carlo simulations generally give lower success rates than historical calculators, which in turn give lower success rates than static analysis calculators. It's up to you to learn about the assumptions behind the calculators you use and decide if you feel comfortable with those assumptions and whether or not they apply to your particular situation.
__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Yesterday, 06:05 AM   #6
Full time employment: Posting here.
exnavynuke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2016
Location: Acworth
Posts: 815
with $550k now, 8 years of growth (without any additional contributions) at 7% would be $945k in 8 years. Add in $320 worth of contributions and that's $1.265M. $1.265M at 4% would give $50.6k/year at 4%. Of course, that doesn't factor into account inflation between now and then (a negative) or the growth of your contributions over the next 8 years (a positive) or SS (a positive). So it seems to me that the numbers make sense.
__________________

__________________
exnavynuke is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Yesterday market down a 100, now up a 100 Blue Collar Guy Stock Picking and Market Strategy 35 07-01-2017 08:05 PM
Fidelity Retirement Income Planner- Inputting a ROTH IRA nico08 FIRE and Money 1 05-23-2014 11:08 AM
Inputting Pension that increases but is not a full COLA volfan FIRECalc support 2 05-16-2014 02:13 AM
Showing off my wife's sewing projects Marquette Other topics 28 09-04-2008 06:22 PM
"Showing men how to survive and thrive" Nords Health and Early Retirement 3 11-16-2006 04:47 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:38 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.