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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-05-2006, 12:40 PM   #41
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Re: An oddball idea?

Ooooooh! Now I don't feel so bad being labeled a bored 13, now 14? year old girl from Missoula.

Hey - MO is closer than LA.

Or get out my Norwegian widow soapbox and talk dividends, current yield and pssst - Wellesley.

Nah - I like FireCalc just like it is - old and advanced.

heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh - BTY for my 13th year of ER at the old age of 62/63 gonna* try 5% varible for while. Mainly cause I'm not getting any younger.
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-05-2006, 12:54 PM   #42
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Re: An oddball idea?

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Originally Posted by unclemick2
BTY for my 13th year of ER at the old age of 62/63 gonna* try 5% varible for while. Mainly cause I'm not getting any younger.
Just curious, what you gonna spend your money on? Women and booze?*
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-05-2006, 01:33 PM   #43
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Re: An oddball idea?

Wimmen with booze in 'em...
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-05-2006, 02:59 PM   #44
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Re: An oddball idea?

Yep

Seemed to help a lot on the cruise - unless there's a cruise version of 'they all look good at closing time.'

Down to remodeling and perhaps some more travel.

Now a rich wider women - defined as richer than me and still healthy(I'll defer that definition to the reader) - that's worth looking for.

Not toooo many Norwegians in this part of MO.

heh heh heh heh heh - lot of openings in this post - I'm sure someone can't resist - he he.
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-05-2006, 03:34 PM   #45
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Re: An oddball idea?

Quote:
By looking at anything less than 100% with the historical data, we're already eliminating the true outliers. Even if we set the success rate to 70%, we're still under 5% SWR, so those "outliers" would need to be quite prevalent in the data.
Quote:
But a 6% withdrawal matches up to a 40% success/60% failure rate -- so 60% of the historical examples would have to be outliers...
Two persuasive points. I'm pressed for time right now and will revisit them in the context of what they imply, but for now just wanted to get a comment out that acknowledges these are strong points.
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-05-2006, 06:59 PM   #46
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Re: An oddball idea?

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Originally Posted by dory36
The muffled moan you heard was the sound of SG committing seppuku, as the only possible way of restoring his honor.

No. It was the sigh of frustration at having a true statement undergo such an innacurate interpretation.

Nords, I've noticed you have been especially caustic and innacurate lately. Maybe it's your diet. Too much pineapple? Or maybe you haven't been getting enough exercise. Inferior surf?
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-05-2006, 07:40 PM   #47
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Re: An oddball idea?

Quote:
By looking at anything less than 100% with the historical data, we're already eliminating the true outliers. Even if we set the success rate to 70%, we're still under 5% SWR, so those "outliers" would need to be quite prevalent in the data.

Quote
But a 6% withdrawal matches up to a 40% success/60% failure rate -- so 60% of the historical examples would have to be outliers...
Adding a third quote from your input, dory

Quote:
If the idea is that the timing of the yearly withdrawals is creating an abnormally low result, one can look at taking the withdrawals in February, or March, or April, etc., based on historical data. Intercst did so. At the 95% safe level, results varied a tenth of a percent or so (i.e., 3.95% to 4.05% withdrawals), but there was no hint that the 130 samples taken in January each year created any artifact.
Dealing with the last quote first, varying the month of the sample and observing no change of result is powerful data and would surely seem to suggest that :

1) There is likely no evidence human market behavior occurs in cycles, i.e., history does not repeat regularly or

2) There is some weird and unlikely aliasing beyond Nyquist in cycles that are present and therefore are not detectable (and in this case what isn't detectable is irrelevant) or

3) There are cyclical influences of various sorts on human behavior/moods and they are of possibly different frequencies, but they are numerous, have random phase relationships (such that there is no point in time that yields a "peak or trough" in behavior, and near equal amplitude (with amplitude being defined as how decisive a particular cycle might be in causing urgency in buying or selling (it is not buying or selling that moves prices, it is the urgency to buy or sell that does).

Occam's razor would say #1 is the item to bet on.

But what must this mean for your first two points, dory.

You have found at least one 30 yr series that fails even marginally above 4% so another 1000 yrs of data will not make that 1 series go away and at 100% confidence you can never have higher withdrawls. But ignore your 2nd point for a moment and consider what it would mean if another 1000 points did exist and that 1 series that failed at 4% + delta was the only one that did. We would then have to deal with the probabilities that in the first 137 data points ever encountered/created by mankind out of possibly thousands of market decision moods to come that we happened to catch the one time that 4% + delta failed.

But yes, I know, you have your second point that shows even modest moves above 4% collapse the total number of 30 yr periods that are successful. What does this say about human behavior/moods in markets? It suggests that it's always the same, doesn't it? There just aren't going to be many 30 yr series at all that will permit 4% + X*delta or whatever because humans behave the same way and they don't allow the market to be strong enough over many protracted periods to support 4% + X*delta.

Does this seem reasonable? Is this not in conflict with the failure of technical analysis? Or indeed, with the first point above. If humans do the same thing over and over, that's . . . a cyclical behavior.

Anyway, no question about the strength of your points, but what seems like a proper extrapolation from them creates many conflicts/questions.
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-05-2006, 08:27 PM   #48
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Re: An oddball idea?

I like the Occam's razor bit. It suggests taking 4% or so.

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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-05-2006, 08:28 PM   #49
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Re: An oddball idea?

Quote:
There just aren't going to be many 30 yr series at all that will permit 4% + X*delta or whatever because humans behave the same way and they don't allow the market to be strong enough over many protracted periods to support 4% + X*delta.
Or there is some sort of a feedback mechanism buried in there somewhere that has the same regulating effect.

My grad school advisor had a great one-liner... "argue with hypotheses all you want, but don't argue with data."

One of his great lessons was making us find numerous (often mutually inconsistent) hypotheses to explain data, while recognizing that the hypotheses were just that, but the data was a representation of the real world.
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-05-2006, 10:31 PM   #50
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Re: An oddball idea?

Quote:
My grad school advisor had a great one-liner... "argue with hypotheses all you want, but don't argue with data."

One of his great lessons was making us find numerous (often mutually inconsistent) hypotheses to explain data, while recognizing that the hypotheses were just that, but the data was a representation of the real world.
Interesting. My grad school advisor had one, too. It was "I have more of a gravitational influence on you than Jupiter."

His point was that there is a county in Wisconsin whose weather has conformed each day for decades (p < .01) to a particular sequence that correlates with the phases of the moons of Jupiter.

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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-06-2006, 08:29 AM   #51
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Re: An oddball idea?

Everything is relative to the speed of sound through warm tapioca...
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-08-2006, 10:06 AM   #52
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Re: An oddball idea?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgeeeee
Nords, I've noticed you have been especially caustic and innacurate lately.* Maybe it's your diet.* Too much pineapple?* Or maybe you haven't been getting enough exercise.* Inferior surf?
Eh, I sprained my left knee at tae kwon do last April and haven't had a real workout since. I've been squabbling with Crippler Tripler Hospital's "automated appointment hotline" (triply oxymoronic) for an MRI. I probably won't be healed in time for an August TKD tournament. Spouse's absent for 12-hour workdays and she brings home the inevitable "Navy's going to hell in a handbasket" baggage.

However the brace has really helped reduce the effusion, my ACL is probably OK and my medial seems to be undamaged. The surf's been good and I can surf in a knee brace. I'm walking normally again and limping through the forms so I'll probably start kicking again in a couple weeks. If I'm not competing I'll have a chance to get good photos of the kid's performance. I hate learning that I'm mortal but it looks like I'll heal, and I'll probably get less grumpy over the next couple months.

So in a non-caustic & curious spirit, if Rodmail didn't inspire you to uncloak then what did?
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-08-2006, 12:29 PM   #53
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Re: An oddball idea?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Eh, I sprained my left knee at tae kwon do last April and haven't had a real workout since.* I've been squabbling with Crippler Tripler Hospital's "automated appointment hotline" (triply oxymoronic) for an MRI.* I probably won't be healed in time for an August TKD tournament.* Spouse's absent for 12-hour workdays and she brings home the inevitable "Navy's going to hell in a handbasket" baggage.

However the brace has really helped reduce the effusion, my ACL is probably OK and my medial seems to be undamaged.* The surf's been good and I can surf in a knee brace.* I'm walking normally again and limping through the forms so I'll probably start kicking again in a couple weeks.* If I'm not competing I'll have a chance to get good photos of the kid's performance.* I hate learning that I'm mortal but it looks like I'll heal, and I'll probably get less grumpy over the next couple months.

So in a non-caustic & curious spirit, if Rodmail didn't inspire you to uncloak then what did?
I am really sorry that you are having some injury problems. I don't surf, (Phoenix is not known as one of the great surfing locations in the world) but I am involved in a lot of activities that are very physically demanding. It is frustrating and disheartening when injuries keep me from paricipating. And one awful trend I've noticed is that as I age My injuries seem to take more and more time to heal. I hope you are back to 100% soon.

Maybe I'm just dense, but I don't understand your question. Uncloak?
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-08-2006, 12:35 PM   #54
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Re: An oddball idea?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgeeeee

Uncloak?
http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...3296#msg143296

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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-08-2006, 12:37 PM   #55
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Re: An oddball idea?

By the way, since we now know who you are, I just sent you some nice flowers.

You might want to poke them with a stick a few times before bringing them in the house.

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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-08-2006, 12:47 PM   #56
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Re: An oddball idea?

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Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
By the way, since we now know who you are, I just sent you some nice flowers.

You might want to poke them with a stick a few times before bringing them in the house.

CFB,

The flowers were nice. And thanks for the neat pet rattlesnake in the container. But why is there an alarm clock in it?
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-08-2006, 01:01 PM   #57
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Re: An oddball idea?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgeeeee
Maybe I'm just dense, but I don't understand your question. Uncloak?
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo!
http://early-retirement.org/forums/index.php?topic=7928.msg143296#msg143296
Like REW says, I'm curious what caused you to reveal your name & background. You've alluded to various aspects before but never provided such specific details!
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-08-2006, 01:09 PM   #58
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Re: An oddball idea?


Oh. *I get it.

Because of my various positions in professional organizations and projects, my email, office and home coordinates have been public knowledge for several years -- decades really. *My picture and bio has been out there for a long time. *By the time it occured to me that this might not be a good thing, it was too late. *I probably get more spam and email nonsense than any 10 of you put together. *I don't go out of my way to publicize my identity, but I don't worry too much about it either. *The cat's been out of the bag for a long time. *

As I read this thread, I saw that rodmail was talking about what is mathematically possible while everyone else was talking about what made sense to answer the questions they had. *I thought he might be feeling like the reason people kept coming back with practical, focused answers that did not address the specific FFT ideas he was throwing out was because they didn't understand the math. *I thought it might help if he knew his technical ideas were understood.

I have just begun building my own web site (actually DW is doing it) to handle some of the projects I'm involved in. * We hope it will reduce some of our required email load by allowing us to direct the various people we collaborate with to the parts of the site that will have information they need, rather than answer the same questions hundreds of times. *It's more of an experiment in web building than a useful site today, but I did think it would be useful to establish my math/technical credentials with rodmail. *

CFB must have done a quick search and found an old picture. *At that point, I didn't see any reason to hide my ugly face further.
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-08-2006, 01:13 PM   #59
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Re: An oddball idea?

Quote:
Originally Posted by sgeeeee
... I didn't see any reason to hide my ugly face further.
True. Short of a bag over your head, there isn't much more you can do.

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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-08-2006, 01:16 PM   #60
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Re: An oddball idea?

SGeeeeee, it looks like you and I graduated from the same little college of engineering from the same little podunk state university in Raleigh. Another one of our frequent posters graduated the same year as you did from the same little college of engineering. Always good to see successful products of your school.
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