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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-17-2006, 09:37 AM   #81
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Re: An oddball idea?

Amen

Sure glad I was a really, really cheap bastard the first 12 yrs(1993 -2005).

Gotta just love those dryer sheets!

heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-17-2006, 09:48 AM   #82
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Re: An oddball idea?

You can do this two ways: in the weeds like firecalc or prarie dogging it with long term rates of return-average inflation-taxes. Not surprisingly, you end up in the same place. Only two things that screw you up are, as shown above, a sharp downturn right after you retire or a long crappy period like 1929- and 1964-.

Since you cant predict either, or even put odds on it, I think you take your best shot and a reasonable withdrawal you're comfortable with and if you run into a wall right away, have a backup plan. If you run into a long crappy period, have a plan for that but know that everyone else is also having a tough time and its all relative.
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-17-2006, 10:22 AM   #83
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Re: An oddball idea?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute n Fuzzy Bun'ny
... If you run into a long crappy period, have a plan for that but know that everyone else is also having a tough time and its all relative.
My plan is to move in with relatives.
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-17-2006, 10:23 AM   #84
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Re: An oddball idea?

Careful, they might wanna move in with you!

Have a fast escape boat with plenty of y2k provisions stored and a couple of doubloons sewed into the seats...
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-17-2006, 10:36 AM   #85
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Re: An oddball idea?

Excellent. Just an excellent graph. And I think you are saying that's without Social Security. Good data.

Okay, here's the thing. The presentation of information is with a single SWR number PLUS a statement of % of times a given SWR is successful. If you constrain all conversation to only the first item, the SWR number, then you can say "this is history. This is what happened. There was one occasion a given SWR failed and thus you may not go beyond that without losing total historical confidence of survival."

But the moment one says 99% of cases succeeded, or 95% of cases succeeded -- that very moment one moves into the realm of statistics. Once one does that all issues associated with statistics are put into play. This includes independence of "samples", of course, and perhaps the most prominent of all statistical issues is sample size.

Dory, you noted, and this is powerful, that moving past that magical SWR number that yields a single failure suddenly yields a great many more failures as well. The sensitivity of this undefined algorithm seems to be extremely sensitive to increases. That tends to undercut the importance of the statistical issues -- because it suggests that the sensitivity is so high that increased sample sizes won't change the conclusion.

The problem is one doesn't know why. Why is the number 4 rather than 6, or 2? What is the control feedback you lightly suggested way up higher in the thread that constitutes the algorithm.

It's a good discussion. Might learn something. Oh, and one more thing. Shuffling the array of 130 yrs of human behavior measures does not preclude the creation/existance of long, downward periods. Random distribution of those array elements will, now and then, create such multi year down periods. Hell, after 1000 such shuffles and recomputations, averaged together, maybe the results don't change. Now that would be positively scary.
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-17-2006, 11:26 AM   #86
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Re: An oddball idea?

You pose some interesting questions that I would have no idea how to attempt to answer. But any contribution you can make from analysis of the data would be welcome.

The best single source of long term data is from Yale prof Robert Shiller's research for his book Irrational Exuberance, available online at http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/ie_data.htm. It contains monthly snapshots since 1871.

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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-17-2006, 02:10 PM   #87
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Re: An oddball idea?

Thanks for the reply with the data source. I'm not retired, but I do find myself on some 20+ hour trips to Singapore now and then (Do you realize Singapore is flying the absolute newest and most effective fighter aircraft in the world?) and way too often the movie selection is lame.

Business class has laptop rechargers and the whole situation cries out as being a "rainy day" and therefore a good moment for rainy day projects. I'll play around.

Is there more than just S&P data on this Schiller site?
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-17-2006, 02:10 PM   #88
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Re: An oddball idea?

I will state - without a lick of proof - it's 4% cause the Norwegian wider says so.

Unfortunately applying current yield of a given portfolio over long periods of time - leaves lots of room for debate.

Save the Bogle method for later.

To paraphrase that great financial guru Yogi Berra - dividends are almost as good as real money.

But that's just me.

heh heh heh heh heh - and I plan to cheat: take 5% variable for a few years - before I get too old.
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-17-2006, 05:07 PM   #89
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Re: An oddball idea?

Uncle Mick I'm finding I'm favoring that Norwegian wider method, at about 3.75%

I got a very good feel for the numbers using FireCalc, and then decided to do it my own way. Using the divs/interest from my taxable account, I have what I need. The IRAs, future SS, and my parents' trust can take care of any surprises. More than anything else, I want simplicity and hands off and spending my time on other things.
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-17-2006, 05:15 PM   #90
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Re: An oddball idea?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kate
I got a very good feel for the numbers using FireCalc, and then decided to do it my own way.* *Using the divs/interest from my taxable account, I have what I need.* The IRAs, future SS, and my parents' trust can take care of any surprises.* *More than anything else, I want simplicity and hands off and spending my time on other things.
What, you think you're retired or something!?!
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Re: An oddball idea?
Old 06-17-2006, 06:04 PM   #91
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Re: An oddball idea?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dory36
What, you think you're retired or something!?!

Shhhh!!!! I'm not telling anybody!

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