Originally Posted by txdakini
Still hope some day we can put in the actual age at which we'd like the Bernicke effect to start, e.g., start decreasing spending at 65 or 70. then I'd have more confidence that the model is showing me what I intended.
Every spending model & financial calculator has its flaws.
The fundamental flaw of Bernicke's model is that you have to believe that you'll want to reduce your spending at ANY age due to a transition from "go-go" to "less go" to "no go". If you turn out to have substantial longevity and a real penchant for worldwide longboard surfing then your retirement might get more expensive every year. I also know a real estate agent who says that he'll never retire because what once were his vices now are habits and the "cost" of retiring gets higher for him every year.
On the more realistic side of the debate, Bernicke does not adequately analyze the effects of higher healthcare expenses (especially maintenance prescriptions) and long-term care costs.
I would say that if your entire ER decision rests on getting Bernicke's model to work, then you should keep going until your SWR is 4-5%. Or consider ESRBob's semi-retirement 95%-SWR system.
On the admin side of things, if FIRECalc's Bernicke option had a variable age for changing spending then it wouldn't resemble Bernicke's research and would probably have to be called something else like the "Txdakini Variable Spending" calculator. And you could probably use any version of FIRECalc to simulate what you're looking for by either reducing your expense data after a certain age or by adding synthetic inflation-adjusted pensions after a certain number of years.
In any case you've hit upon a big flaw of just about every single retirement calculator out there-- a failure to adequately model variable spending. So if your ability to make the ER decision relies upon riding this razor's edge, then it's probably better to keep working or to reduce your expected expenses.
But with a huge financial contribution to FIRECalc enough feedback Dory might be willing to look at a software change. As soon as cruising season is over, anyway...