iamjameswalters
Confused about dryer sheets
- Joined
- Nov 30, 2016
- Messages
- 5
Hi there,
My name is James, I'm brand new here, and I wasn't sure which forum this would best fit under (I first posted it in Other...sorry). So, I reposted it over here, which seems to be the best fit.
I'm 22, and my wife and I are looking into retirement planning. I found FIRECalc, and it's a tremendous resource for forecasting how long my nest egg could last me with different withdrawals and portfolio scenarios. The historical data behind it is impressive. But, it made me wonder--can this same historical data be employed to give a more realistic investment forecast? I know FIRECalc is useful for lots of calculations, but it can't do everything. Is this within the parameters of the calculator to do? To try this, I set the first page parameters to 0 spending, 0 portfolio and 30 years. Then, on the Not Retired page, I set the retirement date to 2046 (30 years out), and set my yearly contribution to $15,000 (see below).
So here's my test case. I tried to use some simple numbers. Let's assume a $100,000 annual income. We'll contribute 15% (considered an aggressive savings rate by most) or $15,000 per year for thirty years, and we'll invest it according to FIRECalc's default Couch Potato portfolio (75% stocks/equities, 25% bonds/fixed income). I'm going to assume an average return of 8% off of that. Running that through a compound interest calculator, we end up with $1,835,188. Running it through FIRECalc, the average ending balance is $1,226,254. Following the 4% rule, the first calculation would yield a $73,407 annual withdrawal, the FIRECalc number $49,050. Those dollars are inflated by thirty years; guestimating back to today's dollars from a 2.75% inflation rate, I'd estimate them to be about $32,500 and $21,800, respectively. Both of these pale in comparison to the $100,000 income we're replacing (we're looking at a 22-33% replacement factor, compared to the 60-80% replacement factor most retirement gurus suggest).
So, help me out here: I'm not a strong math guy. Have I used some bad data? Have I messed up some numbers somewhere? Did I miscalculate? Or does FIRECalc not have the data to produce this kind of a prediction? Did I try to get FIRECalc to do something it really can't do? If that's the case, then if it can't forecast how retirement investments will grow*, then how can it forecast how retirement investments will be depleted?
If this is right, then have we severely underestimated our retirement savings rates?
This has been an interesting study, I'm looking forward to any insight you all can bring. I haven't been studying this for long, and I know that around here there are folks who are already living the early retirement dream. Your perspectives will be grounded in some real world experience, which I would welcome.
Thanks guys!
* - According to historical data sets. Obviously, FIRECalc can't predict the future, but assuming all the different investment cycles that it tests through.
My name is James, I'm brand new here, and I wasn't sure which forum this would best fit under (I first posted it in Other...sorry). So, I reposted it over here, which seems to be the best fit.
I'm 22, and my wife and I are looking into retirement planning. I found FIRECalc, and it's a tremendous resource for forecasting how long my nest egg could last me with different withdrawals and portfolio scenarios. The historical data behind it is impressive. But, it made me wonder--can this same historical data be employed to give a more realistic investment forecast? I know FIRECalc is useful for lots of calculations, but it can't do everything. Is this within the parameters of the calculator to do? To try this, I set the first page parameters to 0 spending, 0 portfolio and 30 years. Then, on the Not Retired page, I set the retirement date to 2046 (30 years out), and set my yearly contribution to $15,000 (see below).
So here's my test case. I tried to use some simple numbers. Let's assume a $100,000 annual income. We'll contribute 15% (considered an aggressive savings rate by most) or $15,000 per year for thirty years, and we'll invest it according to FIRECalc's default Couch Potato portfolio (75% stocks/equities, 25% bonds/fixed income). I'm going to assume an average return of 8% off of that. Running that through a compound interest calculator, we end up with $1,835,188. Running it through FIRECalc, the average ending balance is $1,226,254. Following the 4% rule, the first calculation would yield a $73,407 annual withdrawal, the FIRECalc number $49,050. Those dollars are inflated by thirty years; guestimating back to today's dollars from a 2.75% inflation rate, I'd estimate them to be about $32,500 and $21,800, respectively. Both of these pale in comparison to the $100,000 income we're replacing (we're looking at a 22-33% replacement factor, compared to the 60-80% replacement factor most retirement gurus suggest).
So, help me out here: I'm not a strong math guy. Have I used some bad data? Have I messed up some numbers somewhere? Did I miscalculate? Or does FIRECalc not have the data to produce this kind of a prediction? Did I try to get FIRECalc to do something it really can't do? If that's the case, then if it can't forecast how retirement investments will grow*, then how can it forecast how retirement investments will be depleted?
If this is right, then have we severely underestimated our retirement savings rates?
This has been an interesting study, I'm looking forward to any insight you all can bring. I haven't been studying this for long, and I know that around here there are folks who are already living the early retirement dream. Your perspectives will be grounded in some real world experience, which I would welcome.
Thanks guys!
* - According to historical data sets. Obviously, FIRECalc can't predict the future, but assuming all the different investment cycles that it tests through.