Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Did something change in calculation methodology?
Old 12-03-2013, 07:12 PM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,904
Did something change in calculation methodology?

I've occasionally run Firecalc with basically the same data over the years since ER in 2003 and have always gotten a nice reassuring 100% success rate. Much to my surprise I just ran a simulation with the same parameters as before and now I'm getting a low 90% success rate. Did something change recently?
__________________

__________________
ejman is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-03-2013, 07:28 PM   #2
Administrator
Gumby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 10,137
I believe that the data sets were updated recently. If the new data includes the Great Recession, that would likely affect success rates.
__________________

__________________
Living an analog life in the Digital Age.
Gumby is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2013, 07:51 PM   #3
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 1,629
Not surprising to me after update of recent bond returns.
__________________
ERhoosier is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2013, 08:08 PM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,074
I just re-ran my numbers and saw no change - same success rate as always.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2013, 08:10 PM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
Brdofpray's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Location: Upstate SC
Posts: 242
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
I just re-ran my numbers and saw no change - same success rate as always.
+1
__________________
Don't sweat the small stuff! And realize, it is all small stuff!
Brdofpray is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2013, 08:42 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
youbet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Chicago
Posts: 9,965
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
I just re-ran my numbers and saw no change - same success rate as always.
+1
__________________
"I wasn't born blue blood. I was born blue-collar." John Wort Hannam
youbet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2013, 08:49 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Katsmeow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,394
To the OP: Use the investigate tab and see what cycles are failing. If it is the ones including the more recent unpleasantness then it could be just the newer data recently added. Otherwise, I suspect you did something slightly differently this time.
__________________
Katsmeow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-03-2013, 10:36 PM   #8
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,904
Well after a thorough investigation I determined that indeed something had changed - the mental ability of the OP- I put in monthly SS amounts instead of annual figures in the SS income section. Humble apologies.... On the one hand, I'm happy that I'm back to the 100% level. On the other hand now I have to worry they don't cut SS to 1/12 of what it currently is
__________________

__________________
ejman is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:30 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.