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Old 06-09-2016, 04:01 AM   #41
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 4,933
i think the answer really is that if you want the highest odds and want to survive at least the worst of the past you have to go for 100% success rate .

other wise you do not allow for those 5 or so worst case scenario's happening to you , you are ruling them out from happening to you .

so at 100% there is no time frame you wouldn't have withstood to date .

that is about 3,.50% today for 30 years and a 40-60 to 70/30 mix .

if you want to roll the dice and go for high probability of not having the worst case scenario's happen to you then you can go 95% with a 4% draw for the same criteria . but if your time frame were like the y2k retiree saw , getting hammered with 2 major downturns in the first 10 years , there is a good chance you may be a casualty without spending cuts or if healthcare expenses rise more then expected ,which they have been .

in both cases when you look at life expectancy for age 90 to 95 assuming a 62 or fra retirement the fact many of use will not live that long bolster the above success rates even more since you can't run out of money if you are dead .

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