Firecalc bug?

jeff2006 · 12-06-2006, 11:20 AM

entered these parameters into advanced FC:

Portfolio -- 100% S&P-500, 1 million
start retirement in 2018

plan ends in 40 years -- SWR is 64,951 for 100% success

plan ends in 45 years -- SWR is 72,666 for 100% success

Seems implausible that the longer plan should heve the higher WD . . .

dory36 · 12-06-2006, 01:15 PM

If you select "End-of-year portfolio balances (text)" you will see that retirements starting in ~1961 - ~1965 failed, while others succeeded, when using your figures and a $65,000 withdrawal rate.

Those would not be picked up by a 45 year retirement because there were not 45 years of data available starting after ~1961, so the last cycle tested would have started in about 1960.

By the way -- your input implies you are investing a million today and letting it grow until 2018, not that you hope to get to 1 million by 2018. You probably realize this, but others might not.

jeff2006 · 12-06-2006, 06:08 PM

Hi, Dory -- thanks very much for the explanation. I understand what you're saying. Best regards . . .

12-06-2006, 11:20 AM	#1
jeff2006 Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 174	Firecalc bug? entered these parameters into advanced FC: Portfolio -- 100% S&P-500, 1 million start retirement in 2018 plan ends in 40 years -- SWR is 64,951 for 100% success plan ends in 45 years -- SWR is 72,666 for 100% success Seems implausible that the longer plan should heve the higher WD . . .

12-06-2006, 01:15 PM	#2
dory36 Early-Retirement.org Founder Developer of FIRECalc Join Date: Jun 2002 Posts: 1,823	Re: Firecalc bug? If you select "End-of-year portfolio balances (text)" you will see that retirements starting in ~1961 - ~1965 failed, while others succeeded, when using your figures and a $65,000 withdrawal rate. Those would not be picked up by a 45 year retirement because there were not 45 years of data available starting after ~1961, so the last cycle tested would have started in about 1960. By the way -- your input implies you are investing a million today and letting it grow until 2018, not that you hope to get to 1 million by 2018. You probably realize this, but others might not. __________________ Often uninformed, seldom undecided. Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. Mark Twain

12-06-2006, 06:08 PM	#3
jeff2006 Recycles dryer sheets Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 174	Re: Firecalc bug? Hi, Dory -- thanks very much for the explanation. I understand what you're saying. Best regards . . .

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