Lsbcal
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I posted the FIRECalc results below (see quote) in another forum. The purpose was to look at how a value tilted portfolio compared to a portfolio based on TSM (total stock market). Now I'm wondering how TSM was constructed since, of course, there was no TSM funds in 1929. Could someone enlighten me? I just would like a rough idea of where the data comes from for the different options in the "How to Invest" tab of the advanced FIRECalc tool. Thanks, it's a great resource.
Les
====================
Les
====================
I ran FIRECalc (with no withdrawals) to look at various allocations for the depression years 1929-1932 and also for the bear market of 1973-1974. The results are below. Portfolios 2,3,4 are just for reference. I realize this data just focuses on worst case declines.
Start value = 100,000
ER = 0.2
CPI adjusted, rebalanced yearly
Time period 1: 1929 to 1932 (3 years)
Time period 2: 1973 to 1975 (2 years)
Port1: 60% TSM, 40% 5yr treasury
Port2: 100% TSM
Port3: 100% 5yr treasury
Port4: 100% 30yr treasury
Port5: 15% SP500, 15% LV, 15% S, 15% SV, 35% long treasury, 5% 1mo treasury
Port6: 60% SP500, 35% long treasury, 5% 1mo treasury
Port7: 40% SP500, 20% SV, 35% long treasury, 5% 1mo treasury
Port8: 40% SP500, 20% LV, 35% long treasury, 5% 1mo treasury
Period..1....2
Port1 76768 68656
Port2 48880 53972
Port3 132440 93925
Port4 131239 92673
Port5 54122 62569
Port6 71841 63862
Port7 63430 60637
Port8 65502 66790
So for example, Port1 based on total stock market did dramatically better then Port5 with a big value tilt which lost almost half it's value (going from 100,000 to 54122).