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Old 08-06-2017, 07:21 PM   #41
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What % did Firecalc give her when she retired?
I read the article after I read your post. I laughed out loud.

"Barbara Carlson never gave money a thought — until the day she ran out of it."

Firecalc, we don't need no stinking firecalc.
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Old 08-06-2017, 07:26 PM   #42
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What % did Firecalc give her when she retired?
The first few sentences of the article show that she simply overspent and never thought about her bank balance. What did people think would happen?
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Old 08-07-2017, 10:31 AM   #43
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Lottery tickets! I hope she bought them.
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Old 09-20-2017, 09:55 AM   #44
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The % success chances also all depend upon you never changing your spending levels, or getting more income in the future, even if you see significant economic downturns.

My "essential" budget (covering everything I need to have my home/car/food/utilities/internet/TV/clothes/etc) comes out to ~$28k/year. So I could theoretically cut down to that level of spending if I eliminated all my "outside the house fun/enjoyment" money from my budget. I could still garden, go for walks, attend free events, watch TV/movies, play games, read books, etc all for that amount.

My "overall budget", however, is planned for needing $60k/year instead.

So while an "80% chance of success" on a $60k/year planned spending (using constant spending forever) may seem a bit low, it doesn't factor in that I will probably do some consulting work for a few months a year when I first "retire", or that if I watch the stock market drop I'll probably not spend $15k on vacations that year or I'll cut back on buying "stuff" that I probably don't need etc during such times.

Unless you're one of the "Mr Money Mustache" follower types that is planning on retiring on a 4% SWR that barely covers a "minimalist spending" lifestyle, I'd say that a 95% success rate, when adjusted for how most people would actually behave if things went poorly for a while, is probably more like a "you'll be absolutely fine unless something close to world-ending or other similar catastrophic scenario occurs". I'd say for most FIRE people, 80% is probably plenty, and 90% is practically a guarantee of success without a future calamity that would probably screw over the 95% success rate plan as well.
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Old 10-09-2018, 04:47 PM   #45
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This is an old thread. But playing with Firecalc, using different assumptions on spending and when to pay off my mortgage and years of retirement (30, 35, 40 years), I get a range of 96% - 100%. So, just wanted to revive this thread
I want to throw a question to the forum - aside from how you feel about 95% - 100% success rate, what is your favorite length of retirement - 30 years, 35 years, 40 years, or more. I use 34 - 39 years (assuming I retire at 56) and that gets me to 90-95 years old. I feel confident about a 99% success factor, with 1% chance of failure. I suppose 100% success is the ideal factor, but don't know if you can really survive 40 years of retirement. So, 100% for 35 years of retirement is ok, and 99% for 40 years of retirement works for me.
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Old 10-09-2018, 06:01 PM   #46
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I didn't plan for 100%, as being able to retire snuck up on me. However, once I used the calculators, I did want it to be at 100%. I use 92 yo as my longevity date.
One poster in the past mentioned that with 95% success rate, one is failing the worst 6 times in history. Although the past doesn't indicate what comes in the future, wouldn't one want to theoretically survive the worst examples in history (i.e. 1929, 1937, 1966, etc).
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Old 10-09-2018, 06:14 PM   #47
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I plan for living to 100, which is highly likely to be longer than I live unless huge strides in medicine are made, and my length of retirement is always whatever gets me to that age, so 54 years in my current calcs.

Which is pretty much why I have set a target withdrawal rate of 3%, because I want no historical failures. This means I am almost certainly vastly over-saving, but I'd rather be safe than sorry, which is a pretty common position on here.
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Old 10-09-2018, 06:16 PM   #48
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I think 95% is fine... in fact, the 4% rule was based on a 95% success rate if I recall correctly. The way I figure it if one has a 95% success ratio and comes close to running out of money, there will be a whole lot of people suffering a lot more.
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Old 10-09-2018, 06:39 PM   #49
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I think 95% is fine... in fact, the 4% rule was based on a 95% success rate if I recall correctly. The way I figure it if one has a 95% success ratio and comes close to running out of money, there will be a whole lot of people suffering a lot more.
Bolded - correct
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Old 10-09-2018, 06:42 PM   #50
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4% is 95% success rate and 30 year retirement window. So not nearly conservative for my comfort enough if you are hoping to retire in your 30s or 40s and expect to die in your late 90s.
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Old 10-09-2018, 08:17 PM   #51
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I guess it's good to know that if I retire at 56 yrs old at the beginning of 2020 (or 1 year and 3 months from now), and I live up to 92 years old, Firecalc says I'm 100% successful with a starting yearly budget of $60,000.

If I extend my retirement to 95 years old, my success rate is 99.1%.
I suppose if that failure happens, I could sell my house or get a reverse mortgage LOL.

But I'm really planning to retire 2021 when I hit 57 or 57.5 yrs old. I just wanted to see if retiring at 56 works. I should be FI in 10 months.
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Old 10-09-2018, 08:30 PM   #52
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My plan is 200%. That is, I still get 100% from FIRECalc if I double the spending. <8 months to go.
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Old 10-09-2018, 09:11 PM   #53
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My plan is 200%. That is, I still get 100% from FIRECalc if I double the spending. <8 months to go.
While that's certainly safe, I'm guessing you gave up a lot of year w#$king to get to that point! If I were you, I'd double my spending to ensure I didn't leave much on the table!
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Old 10-09-2018, 09:13 PM   #54
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Since my budget inlcudes 50% for travel, 95% is good enough for me! In down times, I can always defer travel, and just do more local stuff (dive, surf, hike, fly the drone, etc.).
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Old 10-09-2018, 09:16 PM   #55
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I do 100% to over age 100 using matching strategies. We can live pretty well with the current plan so don't feel a need to spend more.
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Old 10-09-2018, 09:16 PM   #56
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We feel the same way. Half of our pensions/ VA compensation covers our comfortable lifestyle and is COLA adjusted. The other half goes into savings bucket.
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Old 10-09-2018, 10:00 PM   #57
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I saw this from Business Insiders ..
"If you are an 80 year old man, your long-term odds are not great. There is a 30% chance of making it to your 90th birthday, and only about 14 in 1,000 will see 100."

Striving for 100% is fine, but there's always that 1% - 5% probability of the inevitable happening. I still hope we all get 100%
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Old 10-09-2018, 10:16 PM   #58
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I want to throw a question to the forum - aside from how you feel about 95% - 100% success rate, what is your favorite length of retirement - 30 years, 35 years, 40 years, or more. I use 34 - 39 years (assuming I retire at 56) and that gets me to 90-95 years old. I feel confident about a 99% success factor, with 1% chance of failure. I suppose 100% success is the ideal factor, but don't know if you can really survive 40 years of retirement. So, 100% for 35 years of retirement is ok, and 99% for 40 years of retirement works for me.
(emphasis mine)

I'm retired now, and retired at age 61. When I was planning for retirement, I ran FIRECalc for a 34 year retirement, ending at age 95. I required 95% at some times, or 100% at other times when running FIRECalc.

If still alive at 80 then my intention was to re-plan my retirement for a longer lifespan. I figured that I'd plan a 25 year retirement starting at age 80, maybe buying an SPIA annuity to get me through those last few years if necessary. Shouldn't be too expensive at that age.

But now, at age 70, with a long term bull market, things have been looking pretty rosy. Probably I won't have to re-plan my retirement after all.
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Old 10-26-2018, 05:57 PM   #59
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I find this discussion interesting. A LOT of discussion on SWR on this site - most seem to think 4% is too high- but then many people on this thread think 95% is pretty safe!
To get to 95% i have to have 5.78% SWR on a 30 year retirement. This is due to SS and My house being paid off along the way.
So, it would seem to me that just picking a "SAFE" SWR - say 4% is probably way conservative for most people.
If i use the same retirement parameters and start retirement with 4% SWR, my lowest "ending balance" in my retirement is 100% of my starting amount- i would have effectively spent 0 dollars to retire........so...why am i still working?
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Old 10-26-2018, 06:01 PM   #60
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You start with 5.78% until you start SS and then your withdrawal rate drops, I assume.
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