Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
New to Firecalc .. Do you guys usually include your SS and portfolio mix?
Old 11-07-2015, 08:31 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 402
New to Firecalc .. Do you guys usually include your SS and portfolio mix?

I have not really used Firecalc before, but today I run it.

First, no SS income was plugged in, default 75%/25% equity/bonds and I was at 70% success.

Second, I plugged in SS income for me and wife at 62, and 75% equities/25% bonds, came out with 95% success.

Third, I plugged in SS income at 62, and 50% equities/ 50% bonds/fixed income, and came out with 99.1% success (with only 1 cycle fail). I assume it's safe for me to retire now

I'm not sure if many of you retired with only 70% success without SS.

I'm also uncertain if Firecalc assumes that the retirement nest egg you put in is pre-taxed 401K only ? And if so, does it assume your tax bracket (at 10%, 15%, 25%) based on your yearly withdrawal amount?







__________________

__________________
cyber888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

New to Firecalc .. Do you guys usually include your SS and portfolio mix?
Old 11-07-2015, 08:45 AM   #2
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Houston
Posts: 639
New to Firecalc .. Do you guys usually include your SS and portfolio mix?

Without SS I was 90 plus percent success. Doesn't really matter though. What matters is the comfort level you have with your own input and results. I personally would be comfortable in retiring in your situation if (1) I had good confidence in my input assumptions (2) ran other tools and got similar positive results. I used I-orp for example plus had a couple financial advisors run retirement analysis for me and (3) I had backup plan if I later found my assumptions were wrong. For example, what is my plan if my wife needs major medical help in the first couple years of retirement.? Can I absorb the costs not covered by my insurance?

But if I could get through some critical thinking like the above, sure I'd retire. Good luck!


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________

__________________
Whisper66 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2015, 08:50 AM   #3
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,123
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888 View Post
I'm also uncertain if Firecalc assumes that the retirement nest egg you put in is pre-taxed 401K only ? And if so, does it assume your tax bracket (at 10%, 15%, 25%) based on your yearly withdrawal amount?

[LIST][*][/LIST


[LIST][*] [/LIST
FIRECalc ignores taxes. You, of course, can't do that, so you have include taxes in your annual withdrawal rate.

IOW, you need to have an annual withdrawal large enough to meet your spending requirements plus pay your taxes.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2015, 09:18 AM   #4
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: Houston
Posts: 639
Another option is to reduce your assets by your expected tax rate before entering them into firecalc. That is probably ultra conservative but easy to do. That's the way I ran my numbers.


Sent from my iPhone using Early Retirement Forum
__________________
Whisper66 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2015, 09:22 AM   #5
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,123
OP, to answer your question about including SS and portfolio mix: Yes
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2015, 12:14 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888 View Post
...

Second, I plugged in SS income for me and wife at 62, and 75% equities/25% bonds, came out with 95% success.

Third, I plugged in SS income at 62, and 50% equities/ 50% bonds/fixed income, and came out with 99.1% success (with only 1 cycle fail). I assume it's safe for me to retire now ...
It seems odd that you came out higher with 50/50 versus 75/50. I would not expect much difference. How many years did you use for the plan, the default 30? That will generally support taking SS at 62 rather than delay to FRA or 70, but if you increase the time frame, to allow for (different than 'expecting') the chance of a long life, delaying SS can help. Many of us also consider that the lower wage spouse can generally expect a longer life, that delaying provides higher benefits to the surviving spouse. This is case specific though.


Plug your numbers in here:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/ins...etirement-tool

Many people misuse the typical "Average Life Expectancy" number they have seen. Roughly half the people will live longer (it's average, not a median number), so don't you want to plan for the ~ 50% odds you will live longer than average? That calculator will show the odds for single or couples.

And as others have pointed put - you need to factor in taxes on your own. And use effective rates, not marginal rates. On;y the amount in the marginal bracket is taxed at that rate, effective rates are lower.

Question: Why do all your posts include these 'list' tags?

Quote:

[LIST][*][/LIST

[LIST][*][/LIST
-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2015, 01:27 PM   #7
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 402
ERD50 .. I have no idea why the list tags come out every time I post. I don't see them from my end. Yes, I was surprised as well that I got a 99.1% on the 50-50 compared to 95% on the 75-25.


__________________
cyber888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2015, 01:37 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,123
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888 View Post
ERD50 .. I have no idea why the list tags come out every time I post. I don't see them from my end.


[LIST][*] [/LIST ]
You'd think a guy with a "cyber" forum name could figure that one out.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2015, 01:44 PM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Katsmeow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 3,399
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888 View Post
I'm not sure if many of you retired with only 70% success without SS.
DH certainly did (I am semi-retired, working very, very, very part-time). Ours has almost chance of success without SS. But, the fact is that DH has been collecting SS for 3 years and I will be eligible next year (not decided yet when I will take it).

If we were much younger, I might find it important to calculate it without SS, but I think that for DH and I that SS will remain so I don't feel a pressing need to be able to have success without SS.

In reality, I guess I could calculate a successful retirement without any SS at all. It is just that our spending numbers would be a lot smaller.
__________________
Katsmeow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2015, 04:16 PM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
prudent_one's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by Katsmeow View Post
In reality, I guess I could calculate a successful retirement without any SS at all. It is just that our spending numbers would be a lot smaller.
That's how I see it also. I would have to adjust spending. The key is whether that lower spending level is sufficient.
__________________
prudent_one is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2015, 05:17 PM   #11
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 402
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
You'd think a guy with a "cyber" forum name could figure that one out.
i could figure it out, but that would mean looking at the codes of these webpages. I'd rather not waste my time. lol.



__________________
cyber888 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2015, 05:24 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888 View Post
ERD50 .. I have no idea why the list tags come out every time I post. ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
You'd think a guy with a "cyber" forum name could figure that one out.
You'd think. But you never know. But then I got a little more curious when I saw he joined in 2013. Were those tags in his earlier posts?

Interestingly (or maybe not?), his first post went along the same lines as this thread - a seemingly out-of-context question, and helpful replies trying to suggest that context is important were met with some scorn.

I know, some people think I'm too direct, blunt, whatever. But some of those same comments were from posters that are always as gentle as can be.

What was your retirement savings at 50, 55, 60

It's deja' vu all over again!

cyber888 - scroll down in the text input box - you should be able to see those [-LIST-] tags. Delete them before posting. Maybe a key-combo on your computer is triggering them? If you hit edit, you should see them as well.

You don't see these at the end of your post? Note - I added "-" to the word LIST so it would get displayed rather than interpreted as a formatting command, which makes the tag itself 'invisible' in a post:


Quote:
[-LIST-]
[*]
[/-LIST-]
PS - I see I cross posted with you - it has nothing to do with " looking at the codes of these webpages" - the tags are right there in your posts!

-ERD50
__________________
ERD50 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2015, 05:27 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,123
Quote:
Originally Posted by cyber888 View Post
i could figure it out, but that would mean looking at the codes of these webpages. I'd rather not waste my time. lol.



[LIST][*] [/LIST ]
Odd that it doesn't happen to anyone else posting on the forum other than you. Wouldn't that indicate the problem doesn't have anything to do with the forum software and is something on your end?
__________________

__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Do You Include the amount of your Nest Egg in your estimated four % rate of return? nico08 FIRE and Money 22 07-07-2013 05:20 PM
Your unsecured (credit card) debt dies when you die (usually) JustCurious FIRE and Money 77 11-22-2010 10:05 PM
When you buy a car, what age or age range do you usually buy? cloudeleven Other topics 21 05-27-2008 09:20 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:12 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.