New to Firecalc .. Do you guys usually include your SS and portfolio mix?

[cyber888]

I have not really used Firecalc before, but today I run it.

First, no SS income was plugged in, default 75%/25% equity/bonds and I was at 70% success.

Second, I plugged in SS income for me and wife at 62, and 75% equities/25% bonds, came out with 95% success.

Third, I plugged in SS income at 62, and 50% equities/ 50% bonds/fixed income, and came out with 99.1% success (with only 1 cycle fail). I assume it's safe for me to retire now

I'm not sure if many of you retired with only 70% success without SS.

I'm also uncertain if Firecalc assumes that the retirement nest egg you put in is pre-taxed 401K only ? And if so, does it assume your tax bracket (at 10%, 15%, 25%) based on your yearly withdrawal amount?

 

[Whisper66]

Without SS I was 90 plus percent success. Doesn't really matter though. What matters is the comfort level you have with your own input and results. I personally would be comfortable in retiring in your situation if (1) I had good confidence in my input assumptions (2) ran other tools and got similar positive results. I used I-orp for example plus had a couple financial advisors run retirement analysis for me and (3) I had backup plan if I later found my assumptions were wrong. For example, what is my plan if my wife needs major medical help in the first couple years of retirement.? Can I absorb the costs not covered by my insurance?

But if I could get through some critical thinking like the above, sure I'd retire. Good luck!


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[REWahoo]

I'm also uncertain if Firecalc assumes that the retirement nest egg you put in is pre-taxed 401K only ? And if so, does it assume your tax bracket (at 10%, 15%, 25%) based on your yearly withdrawal amount?

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    FIRECalc ignores taxes. You, of course, can't do that, so you have include taxes in your annual withdrawal rate.
    
    IOW, you need to have an annual withdrawal large enough to meet your spending requirements plus pay your taxes.

 

[Whisper66]

Another option is to reduce your assets by your expected tax rate before entering them into firecalc. That is probably ultra conservative but easy to do. That's the way I ran my numbers.


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[REWahoo]

OP, to answer your question about including SS and portfolio mix: Yes

 

[ERD50]

...

Second, I plugged in SS income for me and wife at 62, and 75% equities/25% bonds, came out with 95% success.

Third, I plugged in SS income at 62, and 50% equities/ 50% bonds/fixed income, and came out with 99.1% success (with only 1 cycle fail). I assume it's safe for me to retire now ...

It seems odd that you came out higher with 50/50 versus 75/50. I would not expect much difference. How many years did you use for the plan, the default 30? That will generally support taking SS at 62 rather than delay to FRA or 70, but if you increase the time frame, to allow for (different than 'expecting') the chance of a long life, delaying SS can help. Many of us also consider that the lower wage spouse can generally expect a longer life, that delaying provides higher benefits to the surviving spouse. This is case specific though.


Plug your numbers in here:

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/retirement/plan-for-a-long-retirement-tool

Many people misuse the typical "Average Life Expectancy" number they have seen. Roughly half the people will live longer (it's average, not a median number), so don't you want to plan for the ~ 50% odds you will live longer than average? That calculator will show the odds for single or couples.

And as others have pointed put - you need to factor in taxes on your own. And use effective rates, not marginal rates. On;y the amount in the marginal bracket is taxed at that rate, effective rates are lower.

Question: Why do all your posts include these 'list' tags?

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    -ERD50

 

[cyber888]

ERD50 .. I have no idea why the list tags come out every time I post. I don't see them from my end. Yes, I was surprised as well that I got a 99.1% on the 50-50 compared to 95% on the 75-25.

 

[REWahoo]

ERD50 .. I have no idea why the list tags come out every time I post. I don't see them from my end.

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  You'd think a guy with a "cyber" forum name could figure that one out.

 

[Katsmeow]

I'm not sure if many of you retired with only 70% success without SS.

DH certainly did (I am semi-retired, working very, very, very part-time). Ours has almost chance of success without SS. But, the fact is that DH has been collecting SS for 3 years and I will be eligible next year (not decided yet when I will take it).

If we were much younger, I might find it important to calculate it without SS, but I think that for DH and I that SS will remain so I don't feel a pressing need to be able to have success without SS.

In reality, I guess I could calculate a successful retirement without any SS at all. It is just that our spending numbers would be a lot smaller.
http://www.early-retirement.org//www.pinterest.com/pin/create/extension/

 

[prudent_one]

In reality, I guess I could calculate a successful retirement without any SS at all. It is just that our spending numbers would be a lot smaller.

That's how I see it also. I would have to adjust spending. The key is whether that lower spending level is sufficient.

 

[cyber888]

You'd think a guy with a "cyber" forum name could figure that one out.

i could figure it out, but that would mean looking at the codes of these webpages. I'd rather not waste my time. lol.

 

[ERD50]

ERD50 .. I have no idea why the list tags come out every time I post. ...

You'd think a guy with a "cyber" forum name could figure that one out.

You'd think. But you never know. But then I got a little more curious when I saw he joined in 2013. Were those tags in his earlier posts?

Interestingly (or maybe not?), his first post went along the same lines as this thread - a seemingly out-of-context question, and helpful replies trying to suggest that context is important were met with some scorn.

I know, some people think I'm too direct, blunt, whatever. But some of those same comments were from posters that are always as gentle as can be.

http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f30/what-was-your-retirement-savings-at-50-55-60-a-67902.html

It's deja' vu all over again!

cyber888 - scroll down in the text input box - you should be able to see those [-LIST-] tags. Delete them before posting. Maybe a key-combo on your computer is triggering them? If you hit edit, you should see them as well.

You don't see these at the end of your post? Note - I added "-" to the word LIST so it would get displayed rather than interpreted as a formatting command, which makes the tag itself 'invisible' in a post:

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PS - I see I cross posted with you - it has nothing to do with " looking at the codes of these webpages" - the tags are right there in your posts!

-ERD50

 

[REWahoo]

i could figure it out, but that would mean looking at the codes of these webpages. I'd rather not waste my time. lol.

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  Odd that it doesn't happen to anyone else posting on the forum other than you. Wouldn't that indicate the problem doesn't have anything to do with the forum software and is something on your end?