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Recent market performance
Old 06-28-2014, 08:45 AM   #1
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Recent market performance

Cool parameter to add would be something that lets you optionally include only historical runs where the n years previous to retirement had stock market up/down by x.

Reason was thinking this is seems whenever good market is leveling off seems more threads appear related to the fear of retiring with market at top. I think it would be interesting to know historical chance of success if, for example, history was only scenarios where the 2 years prior to retirement had stock market gains of 25%.

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Old 06-28-2014, 09:17 AM   #2
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If you go for 100% success rate with bad and good years, then including only bull markets still gives you 100%.

It's just that all these FIRECalc runs will be low, with trajectories looking like that of a sea-skimming missile, causing recurrent sweaty nightmares if not sleepless nights.

So, you can take the current FIRECalc plot, strike out all the trajectories that rise like an ICBM, and the rest is what you have for retiring after several good years like we do now.

"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leon Trotsky
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Old 06-28-2014, 09:21 AM   #3
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I often wish for the ability to display less cycles in Firecalc. The bottom 10% of cycles or one cycle at every 5% of endpoint. I know the instructions are to grok the blob of lines, but do we?

Firecalc's output data could be used to make a chart in Excel.
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