Join Early Retirement Today
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Recent market performance
Old 06-28-2014, 08:45 AM   #1
Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Feb 2008
Posts: 920
Recent market performance

Cool parameter to add would be something that lets you optionally include only historical runs where the n years previous to retirement had stock market up/down by x.

Reason was thinking this is seems whenever good market is leveling off seems more threads appear related to the fear of retiring with market at top. I think it would be interesting to know historical chance of success if, for example, history was only scenarios where the 2 years prior to retirement had stock market gains of 25%.

tuixiu is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 06-28-2014, 09:17 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 15,889
If you go for 100% success rate with bad and good years, then including only bull markets still gives you 100%.

It's just that all these FIRECalc runs will be low, with trajectories looking like that of a sea-skimming missile, causing recurrent sweaty nightmares if not sleepless nights.

So, you can take the current FIRECalc plot, strike out all the trajectories that rise like an ICBM, and the rest is what you have for retiring after several good years like we do now.

"Old age is the most unexpected of all things that can happen to a man" -- Leo Tolstoy
NW-Bound is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-28-2014, 09:21 AM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 366
I often wish for the ability to display less cycles in Firecalc. The bottom 10% of cycles or one cycle at every 5% of endpoint. I know the instructions are to grok the blob of lines, but do we?

Firecalc's output data could be used to make a chart in Excel.
springnr is offline   Reply With Quote

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
How are people handling the recent down market? Chuckanut FIRE and Money 42 08-10-2011 10:45 AM
Is the market the best performance indicator for post-ER portfolios? walkinwood FIRE and Money 10 08-28-2009 03:06 PM
Recent Performance of DJI haha FIRE and Money 13 02-01-2009 11:51 AM
Historical Charts of Market Performance JustDucky FIRE and Money 4 07-28-2007 08:43 AM
Inflation and market performance Rich_by_the_Bay FIRECalc support 6 07-08-2006 05:56 AM


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 05:15 AM.
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2016, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.