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Some help with my FIRE-numbers?
Old 09-15-2017, 06:07 AM   #1
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Some help with my FIRE-numbers?

Hi everyone,

I'm 25, I live in Belgium, and I'm saving to reach FI asap, but I'm having some trouble calculating my estimated FI-date. Could you help me out a bit please?

The thing is:
- Until 2035 I'll need 1000 each month to survive (incl. house loan payment) (without inflation)
- After 2035 I'll need only 628 each month to survive, until 2039 (incl. small special extra part of house loan)
- After 2039 I'll need only 450 each month (because house is fully paid for then)
- Starting from 2057 I'll have access to the pension fund I'm saving for; about 120.000 in total by then.

- At the moment I'm saving 340 each month to put in my longterm investment (iShares Core MSCI World UCITS ETF is most interesting for Belgians).
- if I'm still working in the year 2035, I will be able to save 730,42 per month. (but I want to reach FI before that)

These numbers do not take into account inflation.

Because there will be different phases of 'money-need' in my future, I find it very difficult to calculate when I'll be FI. Could you please help me a bit?

Kind regards!
Katrien
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Old 09-15-2017, 07:05 AM   #2
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I gather you're asking how to deal with more spending detail as your other parameters are straightforward. You can enter spending year by year if you become a FIRECALC supporter (it's free). Once you log in you'll see a manual entry of spending option at the bottom of the spending tab. There are also several options under the investigate tab that you might find useful, like solving for spending level or portfolio. Does that help?
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Old 09-18-2017, 09:08 AM   #3
Confused about dryer sheets
 
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Originally Posted by Midpack View Post
I gather you're asking how to deal with more spending detail as your other parameters are straightforward. You can enter spending year by year if you become a FIRECALC supporter (it's free). Once you log in you'll see a manual entry of spending option at the bottom of the spending tab. There are also several options under the investigate tab that you might find useful, like solving for spending level or portfolio. Does that help?
Thank you, this already helped a bit.

But I would like to find a calculator that helps to calculate when my (ideal) FIRE-date would be, based on my saving system etc.right now. (I think FIREcalc only says whether you could live of your savings right now, no?)

So I'd like a calculator where I can input for example how much I invest every month (with what kind of expected market returns) and how much I save and how much I'll need when I reach financial independence.

Can someone please help me with that?
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Old 09-18-2017, 11:16 AM   #4
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Originally Posted by kleinekatreine View Post
But I would like to find a calculator that helps to calculate when my (ideal) FIRE-date would be, based on my saving system etc.right now. (I think FIREcalc only says whether you could live of your savings right now, no?)
You're correct.

I built my own Excel spreadsheet to do what you describe. You can build a fairly simple one to start with and then make it more complicated over time. You may need to learn spreadsheet skills in order to do this, but I think that is a worthwhile skill to have anyway. Also, through doing this you can gain a visceral understanding of the numbers and what things impact your FIRE date the most.
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Old 09-18-2017, 11:34 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kleinekatreine View Post
Thank you, this already helped a bit.

But I would like to find a calculator that helps to calculate when my (ideal) FIRE-date would be, based on my saving system etc.right now. (I think FIREcalc only says whether you could live of your savings right now, no?)

So I'd like a calculator where I can input for example how much I invest every month (with what kind of expected market returns) and how much I save and how much I'll need when I reach financial independence.

Can someone please help me with that?
Unless I misunderstand what you're asking, FIRECALC can do that too but you have to provide some assumptions, and there is no one "ideal FIRE-date." If nothing else it will depend on what probability of success you can accept. Some people here are fine with an 80% probability of success while others want 200% (a portfolio double the size needed to reach a 100% success rate). Only you can make that decision.

Enter your current portfolio, years in retirement and retirement spending on the first "Start here" tab. Then enter when you'd like to retire (just choose anything to start) and what you plan to save on the "Not Retired?" tab. And of course your spending plan on the "Spending" tab. Then click on the "Submit" button on any page/tab and look at the probability of success. If you're comfortable with a 95% success rate and your first result is 80% - you will have to save more, spend less or retire later or some combination of them. Keep altering the parameters until you're satisfied.

Of course there are other tabs if you have other spending, a pension, your own market return or portfolio asset allocations, etc.

Unless you're among the most capable of spreadsheet users WITH a detailed understanding of all the financial variables involved, you're not likely to match FIRECALC with your own calculations. If you do attempt to do the calc yourself, it might be helpful to double check your result using FIRECALC.
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Target AA: 45% equity funds / 30% bond funds / 25% cash - radically changed Nov 2018
Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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Old 09-18-2017, 12:23 PM   #6
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Have you looked at Quicken Lifetime Planner? Not sure if they have a European version but you could just use the US version and have USD = euros.

At 25, don't get too fixated or FI or RE.... definitely save but have fun too.
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Old 09-19-2017, 04:17 AM   #7
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Hi SecondCor521, could you maybe share your spreadsheet with me? So I can try and fill it in myself?

Thanks!
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:22 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by kleinekatreine View Post
Hi SecondCor521, could you maybe share your spreadsheet with me? So I can try and fill it in myself?

Thanks!
I would like to be able to, but unfortunately I can't.

A few reasons:

1. Mine is so complicated and customized to my situation, that it very likely is so far off from what you need as to be essentially useless.

2. I would have to go through and change or strip out my personal data, which I keep private, and I am not 100% sure that I would be able to do that.

3. As noted, it would be good for you to develop your own because you'll gain a better understanding. Filling in someone else's spreadsheet won't give you that.

4. There's no guarantee that my spreadsheet is accurate or good. I'm willing to bet my retirement on it being correct, but I'm not willing to take that risk and responsibility on for anyone else.

As an alternative, if you have specific questions about how to get started, I'd be happy to try to answer those.
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Old 09-19-2017, 03:25 PM   #9
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it would be good for you to develop your own because you'll gain a better understanding. Filling in someone else's spreadsheet won't give you that.
This is the key.
Learning to create a customized spreadsheet is an extremely valuable skill that will pay off for the rest of your life.
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Old 09-19-2017, 04:19 PM   #10
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This is the key.
Learning to create a customized spreadsheet is an extremely valuable skill that will pay off for the rest of your life.
Borrowing from another adage and said another way, if you use a spreadsheet from an unknown source how would you know if the results are accurate? One mistake could lead to results that could be horribly wrong. OTOH If you have enough financial savvy to verify someone else's spreadsheet, you could probably author your own with exactly the bells and whistles YOU want. I rely on spreadsheets for investing and many other tasks, but I wouldn't share my financial spreadsheets with someone else - don't want to be at all responsible for someone else's results.
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Target WR: Approx 2.5% Approx 20% SI (secure income, SS only)
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Old 09-20-2017, 05:04 AM   #11
Confused about dryer sheets
 
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Thank you SecondCor521 (and braumeister and Midpack) for the advice. Yes, when you put it that way, I understand completely.

Thanks!
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Old 09-20-2017, 05:06 AM   #12
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Thank you SecondCor521 (and braumeister and Midpack) for this advice.

If you put it this way, I understand completely. Indeed.

Thanks!
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