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variable results
Old 04-20-2019, 07:52 AM   #1
Confused about dryer sheets
Join Date: Apr 2019
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variable results

set up all the inputs and hit "submit". Got a result. Then submitted the same inputs 4 more times and got different results each time - success rates varied between 70% and 90%. What is going on?

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Old 04-20-2019, 08:11 AM   #2
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Are you using the "Random Performance" option under the Your Portfolio tab? That option uses Monte Carlo simulation rather than actual history and will give variable failure rates.

Numbers is hard

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Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
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Old 04-20-2019, 08:15 AM   #3
Confused about dryer sheets
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Using actual market history means I am locked into using historic returns to predict future returns, correct?
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Old 04-20-2019, 08:21 AM   #4
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Firecalc does not predict future returns.

It only shows how portfolios would have behaved in the past.
Retired since summer 1999.
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Old 04-20-2019, 08:40 AM   #5
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Often, I refer to this historical S & P 500 historical graph. Scroll over all points in time. This gives me an idea of the ebbs and flows over many years. We basically RE in 2011, although DH does some consulting on the side b/c he enjoys it. I like to pick a date then see the RR over time, based on this info. We're 55% in the market We've been in the market since approx. 1997, so it's been good for us. This is a simplistic way to get an idea of how awful things would be if market went backwards, but how likely is that?
I click on the "Max" which brings you back to the '70's.

Actually EDIT: this chart is more fun.
"If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.
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Old 04-20-2019, 11:39 AM   #6
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Something sounds amiss. Give us more screen details and we probably can help solve your issue.
Using "Total Market" should provide you the exact same output for the same input.

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