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Good Predictor of Life Expectancy
Old 01-06-2011, 08:25 AM   #1
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Good Predictor of Life Expectancy

How Fast Senior Citizens Walk Found to be Good Predictor of How Long They Will Live

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How fast senior citizens walk appears to be a better gage of how long they will live than trying to do a more complicated analysis using age, sex, chronic conditions, smoking history, blood pressure, body mass index, and hospitalization. This study of senior citizens found walking gait is especially accurate for predicting remaining life for those age 75 and older.
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The researchers found that gait speed was associated with differences in the probability of survival at all ages in both sexes, but was especially informative after age 75 years. At this age, predicted 10-year survival across the range of gait speeds ranged from 19 percent to 87 percent in men and from 35 percent to 91 percent in women. [my emphasis]
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Old 01-06-2011, 08:32 AM   #2
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Ron, I got a chuckle out of reading your post and then spotting the first quote in your sig line...
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Old 01-06-2011, 08:34 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Ron, I got a chuckle out of reading your post and then spotting the first quote in your sig line...
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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Old 01-06-2011, 08:42 AM   #4
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Ron, I got a chuckle out of reading your post and then spotting the first quote in your sig line...
Or better, the last quote.
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Old 01-06-2011, 08:54 AM   #5
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Or better, the last quote.


Hey, guys. I am only the messenger... I hold no responsibility for the contents of any package I might deliver. It is unfortunate, however, that "YMMV" won't fit in my Signature.
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"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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Old 01-06-2011, 12:06 PM   #6
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A funny story about walking thing. My now 82 yr old JuJutsu teacher's wife passed away 5 years ago. The Hospice advisers counseled him to find something he likes and keep doing it.

Predictably, he continued teaching JuJutsu, and being a very good T'ai Chi practitioner and a natural teacher, he decided to fill his mornings teaching T'ai Chi in the complex where he lived.

Seems only ladies of post retirement and post husbands showed up routinely. Once while visiting a year or two ago I participated in one of the classes. After class talking with the ladies they noted that the teacher was very popular. I asked if it was his skill in the arts, or his ability to teach was the reason.

They laughed in unison. And said to me you are too young to understand. Me being 61 or so stood there befuddled. The youngest of the ladies 76 finally took pity and explained.

At our age he would be a rare catch, not only can he walk, he can do it with flair and style, well at least doing T'ai Chi.

Live and learn.
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Old 01-09-2011, 09:19 PM   #7
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Uh oh. My dad turned 75 this year and I've noticed that he has been walking a bit slower the past 3 years or so.
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Old 01-09-2011, 10:37 PM   #8
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Uh oh. My dad turned 75 this year and I've noticed that he has been walking a bit slower the past 3 years or so.
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Old 01-10-2011, 05:05 AM   #9
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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Old 01-10-2011, 10:54 AM   #10
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Mean, mean, mean! But funny!

.8m/sec translates to a speed of roughly 1.8 miles an hour
1m/sec translates to roughly 2.2 miles an hour.
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Old 01-10-2011, 12:18 PM   #11
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If only this was causal. I walk nice and fast and could just focus on keeping that rate high for the rest of my life. :P
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Old 01-10-2011, 12:19 PM   #12
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From the link...
"Durable, solid-state electronic system transmits a very low current to an animal with a strong, instantaneous jolt, so there is no danger of harming you or your livestock."

Um...exactly who is controlling the business end of this thing?
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Old 01-10-2011, 04:14 PM   #13
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From the link...
"Durable, solid-state electronic system transmits a very low current to an animal with a strong, instantaneous jolt, so there is no danger of harming you or your livestock."

Um...exactly who is controlling the business end of this thing?
The guy who is loading the chute or the truck. I am sure that to whack a human with one of these is an assault. Cattle are not real fond of them either.

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Old 01-10-2011, 04:43 PM   #14
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Sounds to me like there's some backward logic going on here. Healthy people tend to have a spring in their step. Therefore, people who are aged 75+ and walk fast, tend to be healthier than the feebler folks, who walk with hesitant steps.

It's like saying that people 75 and older who can do crossword puzzles really fast, are less likely to get dementia.

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Old 01-10-2011, 04:51 PM   #15
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Sounds to me like there's some backward logic going on here. Healthy people tend to have a spring in their step. Therefore, people who are aged 75+ and walk fast, tend to be healthier than the feebler folks, who walk with hesitant steps.

It's like saying that people 75 and older who can do crossword puzzles really fast, are less likely to get dementia.

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No backwards logic, that's the exact correlation that they were exploiting with this as a predictive tool, one would guess. They make no claims this is causal as far as I can see.
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Old 01-10-2011, 05:15 PM   #16
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Is it bad(for me) if my 79 year old paternal grandmother can walk faster and easier than I can at age 31
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Old 01-10-2011, 08:03 PM   #17
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About ten years ago my spouse and I were gasping our way up Diamond Head on O'ahu. By the time we finally got to the top, this little old Japanese lady running laps on the steps passed us twice. And yes, she went all the way up and all the way down..... at least five times.
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Old 01-10-2011, 10:01 PM   #18
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Similar here. When we were about 35 a friend and I were cross country ski-ing on a steep logging road in the Mt. Baker foothills. We were panting and wheezing when some guy who looked to be about 70 just cruised by us.

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Old 01-10-2011, 10:18 PM   #19
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I run a 9.2 second recliner to frig and back with med in hand. I should be good to go.
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Old 01-11-2011, 11:14 AM   #20
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I run a 9.2 second recliner to frig and back with med in hand. I should be good to go.
Depends on the med.
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As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
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