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Life expectancy figures misleading, change rapidly
06-21-2012, 01:36 PM
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#1
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Join Date: Apr 2004
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Life expectancy figures misleading, change rapidly
Professor Austad talks about life expectancy in this interesting article, but I thought that the following clip gave a good insight as to exactly what "life expectancy" really means. It was news to me...
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“Life expectancy” sounds like it should refer to the expectation of future life, but it does not. It refers to the past. Life expectancy — shorthand for life expectancy at birth — is the average age at which people in 2008 died. Maybe we should call it death expectancy. Whatever we call it, it is a very precise number that tells us quite a bit about our present state of health. By tracking its change over time, we can see how health has changed historically.
We could calculate life expectancy for children born in 2008, but we would have to wait until all the children born in that year died. Don't hold your breath until that number is available. On the other hand, the Social Security Administration, having a vested interest in these matters, has already forecast (their word) or guessed wildly (my words) that a child born in 2008 can expect to live 82.7 years. Most demographers of future longevity feel this estimate is woefully low. Some, in fact, predict that children born in 2008 can expect to live more than 100 years.
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06-21-2012, 02:38 PM
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#2
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jan 2011
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Life expectency changes with age. So, I would think a child born in 2008 would have a lower age life expectency than say a 40 year old in 2008. The child has to live through childhood diseases, teens through accidental deaths and suicides, etc. Then, at some point, marriage  .
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06-21-2012, 02:51 PM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2008
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Packman
Life expectency changes with age. So, I would think a child born in 2008 would have a lower age life expectency than say a 40 year old in 2008. The child has to live through childhood diseases, teens through accidental deaths and suicides, etc. Then, at some point, marriage . |
Yeah, that marriage is a killer! Gotta knock 10 years off your life.
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06-21-2012, 03:19 PM
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#4
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Recycles dryer sheets
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Actually, everything I've read says that men live longer when they are married. Women tend to live longer no matter what - married, divorced, widowed or just plain single all their lives.
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06-21-2012, 03:30 PM
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#5
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I don't think the article added much to the discussion because what we are more interested in is human longevity -- the age at which the oldest among us dies. That number is not increasing at anything like the rate of life expectancy, which is affected most dramatically by decreases in infant mortality. The optimists among futurists think exponential change will start to dramatically affect longevity any day now but the jury is out on that one.
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06-21-2012, 03:37 PM
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#6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beowulf
Actually, everything I've read says that men live longer when they are married. Women tend to live longer no matter what - married, divorced, widowed or just plain single all their lives.
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From what I read, a married woman has a shorter lifespan than a single woman.... the opposite of a man.... but, not as drastic of a change...
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06-21-2012, 03:41 PM
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#7
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When infant mortality and childhood diseases were handled by modern medicine the life expectancy went up dramatically. It was never the case 100 years ago or so that the average person lived to only be 100. If you made it to the age of 20 or so back then, then you could expect a long life approaching what we can expect now.
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06-21-2012, 04:07 PM
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#8
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by beowulf
Actually, everything I've read says that men live longer when they are married. Women tend to live longer no matter what - married, divorced, widowed or just plain single all their lives.
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I don't think the cause is loneliness as much as we men do more stupid things to ourselves than if we have a lady looking out for us.
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06-21-2012, 04:47 PM
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#9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulligan
I don't think the cause is loneliness as much as we men do more stupid things to ourselves than if we have a lady looking out for us.
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I agree - it's more that most women don't like the idea of men 70 years of age bunjee jumping from high bridges 
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06-21-2012, 08:21 PM
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#10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mulligan
I don't think the cause is loneliness as much as we men do more stupid things to ourselves than if we have a lady looking out for us.
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06-22-2012, 04:59 AM
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#11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by beowulf
Actually, everything I've read says that men live longer when they are married.
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Or it just seems longer......
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06-22-2012, 05:10 AM
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#12
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2007
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Reminds me of a Matt Wahl song...
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06-22-2012, 11:08 AM
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#13
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 365
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Why do men die earlier than their wives?
Because they want to 
Bada Boom
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