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Longevity Illustrator
Old 05-20-2016, 11:14 AM   #1
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Longevity Illustrator

The Oblivious Investor Investing Blog Roundup email this week was about a new longevity tool available from the SOA and AAA... see link below.

Actuaries Longevity Illustrator - Welcome to the Actuaries Longevity Illustrator

It suggests that there is a 50% chance that DW or I will live to 94 so that makes our plan to defer SS a bit easier for me (ignoring the risk of benefits being reduced due to funding problems).

Anyhow, I think it is an interesting tool to add to the toolbox.
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Old 05-20-2016, 11:17 AM   #2
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that's neat!
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Old 05-20-2016, 01:15 PM   #3
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Just enter age, smoking/non-smoking and general health seems a little vague to me, at least the general health options.
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Old 05-20-2016, 03:19 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by DFW_M5 View Post
Just enter age, smoking/non-smoking and general health seems a little vague to me, at least the general health options.
Actually, they're not promising any earth shattering revelations. From the conclusions section:

Quote:
The Actuaries Longevity Illustrator is designed to offer some perspective on how long you might live. The data presented here can serve as a foundation for understanding your longevity risk (the risk that you and your spouse/partner will live beyond a certain age) as it relates to your retirement.

However, the purpose of the Longevity Illustrator is not to tell you with certainty how long you will live or even how long you can expect to live, because:

The Longevity Illustrator is based on just four input items and there are many factors that affect how long one might live, and
The Longevity Illustrator is based on average expectations that may or may not be appropriate to any one individual's circumstances.
The purpose is also not to determine what financial plans you should put into place. Rather, the purpose of the Longevity Illustrator is to:

Familiarize you with the possible longevity for someone with your general age and health characteristics. With this awareness you can then consider strategies to manage lifetime income from a new perspective.
Provide a way to look at the combined longevity in retirement of you and your spouse or partner.
Provide longevity data in several different ways so you can choose the one that is most appropriate for you.
What I found enlightening, which I've never seen anywhere else, is that there is a possibility I could live to 105 years of age. Whether I would want that is another story entirely.
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Old 05-20-2016, 03:23 PM   #5
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correct, most people don't understand that they OR their SO has a really good chance of making it to 90. it's educational, and needed IMO
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Old 05-20-2016, 04:10 PM   #6
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I agree... I thought that the joint mortality was most interesting since it is otherwise hard to come by such info.
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Old 05-20-2016, 05:15 PM   #7
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What I found most interesting is that somehow I tend to think of either of our inevitable demises as being somewhere way out there (I'm 65 and fairly active) but I see that the chances of either wife or myself passing within 15 years is 50%, 90% within 25 years. I better crank up that WR while we can both enjoy it.
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Old 05-20-2016, 05:37 PM   #8
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Also being of a pessimistic nature, I like to look at the glass as half-empty.

It says that the chance of one of us dying in the next 10 years is almost 20%, increasing to almost 50% in 20 years, and more than 80% in 30 years.

Darn! I recall events 20 years ago like yesterday. And the next 20 years will go a lot faster. I am dead.

And people here keep worrying about money matters. Most people run out of life before money. When your money runs low, there are all kinds of ways to stretch it. When your life is ending, there's no begging the Grim Reaper.
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Old 05-20-2016, 06:36 PM   #9
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And people here keep worrying about money matters. Most people run out of life before money. When your money runs low, there are all kinds of ways to stretch it. When your life is ending, there's no begging the Grim Reaper.
Not always true.

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Old 05-20-2016, 07:34 PM   #10
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Some of the readers here remember that I was faced with a serious illness 3 years ago that could have me pushing daisy. I did not elaborate, but suffice to say, I cheated death once.

One of these days, when I am in the mood, I may tell the story and give more glory, er, gory details.
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Old 05-20-2016, 07:49 PM   #11
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Some of the readers here remember that I was faced with a serious illness 3 years ago that could have me pushing daisy. I did not elaborate, but suffice to say, I cheated death once.

One of these days, when I am in the mood, I may tell the story and give more glory, er, gory details.

Do it now ! I wanna hear it.


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Old 05-20-2016, 08:37 PM   #12
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Well, maybe some day.

I like to say to everybody that we should enjoy life and not to worry too much about money. Most of the people here who have thought about retiring early have done a lot more preparation for the financial aspect compared to the general public. But I bet few think of the biggest unknown of all: our health.

I was and still am generally healthy. My doctor once said my blood test result was the best he had seen in a while. I took no medication. And boom, it hit me like the proverbial bus. I was never the type who thinks he will live to 100. But, but, but I asked myself, why so soon? I was pessimistic, and still caught by surprise. The older and older you get, the more chance of bad things happening. But I was only 56, for crying out loud.

I am OK now obviously. One of these days, I will tell. Please bear with me. Meanwhile, people should stop worrying too much about money. If you have life but no money, working as a Walmart greeter ain't so bad. Without life, what does money get you?
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Old 05-21-2016, 08:02 AM   #13
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Nice tool. I like popping in the view with early 80s set as certain since my parents and three older siblings made it past that point.
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Old 05-23-2016, 06:25 PM   #14
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Being adopted, it's refreshing to come across longevity estimators that don't need inputs regarding family health history.
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