Most of what your doctor does, a robot can do better

[inquisitive]

The article greatly overestimates where computers are in diagnosis and in medicine. The linked article about computers being 41% more accurate than doctors doesn't even seem to be found in the article, they were comparing a computer model to another computer model, not to doctors, and not in a prospective setting. And the author is a medical student who started a technology company and so has an interest in computers in medicine.

It is true that computers will play a bigger and bigger role in medicine and that it will be a combination of what computers are good at and what doctors are good at.

 

[MichaelB]

Expert or Knowledge Based systems have already shown the ability to diagnose medical conditions and prescribe treatment as effectively as the average physician. Context is still the major technical challenge, although IBM's Watson seems to have overcome that obstacle. How long it will take to become part of the core health care practice is still unclear.

The opportunity here is amazing. It is much easier to bring healthcare to people who don't have access due to geography or economy when all that is needed is a less specialized professional with a mobile device. This can be especially useful to the GP, who is a critical provider but under near-impossible pressure to improve productivity.

Ziggy makes an important point. I think it is not a reason to slow the introduction of technology, but also believe we have a collective obligation to to continually reinvest in soft and hard infrastructure and skill development to ensure that continued innovation and productivity improves the standard of living for everyone, not just a few.

Though pretty much ready now, this will probably take a long time to become generally available. The greatest obstacle is the doctors themselves, who as a group control licensing requirements and can easily impede widespread use of these tools. Nonetheless, my guess is when my 30 year old children reach my age there will be a large surplus of health care professionals and facilities, the result of the passing of the boomer generation together with significant improvements in physician productivity. Just my WAG.

 

[yakers]

I'm surprised we don't have an auto-doc (from science fiction stories) already. Posted a thread on this long ago: http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f38/auto-doc-57255.html

 

[Free To Canoe]

The article greatly overestimates where computers are in diagnosis and in medicine. The linked article about computers being 41% more accurate than doctors doesn't even seem to be found in the article, they were comparing a computer model to another computer model, not to doctors, and not in a prospective setting. And the author is a medical student who started a technology company and so has an interest in computers in medicine.

It is true that computers will play a bigger and bigger role in medicine and that it will be a combination of what computers are good at and what doctors are good at.

Plus one on this.
It is amazing how many inroads computer systems have already made in medicine in the last few years.
However, we can't even get computers to do your income taxes right all of the time. Can't get medical "systems" to talk to each other and share basic information.
An all inclusive diagnostic system will be much more complex. Potentially, this could be infinitely complex. Medical knowledge is increasing at an exponential pace. And then there needs to be an expert at the interface and the patient to input the info correctly.

 

[AllDone]

Mmm, except that there seems to be evidence to show that he's happier to discuss that lump (and a whole lot of other stuff) with a computer than with a human.

oh, I've seen some spectacular cases of denial in my time. Really spectacular.

 

[MichaelB]

Interesting short article on robotics, details 5 areas, including health, that will benefit greatly from technology. 5 areas in Robotics that will transform society and their economic impact | RobotEnomics

 

[crtreedude]

I can remember back when I was 20 that computer diagnostic machines had just come out - and of course, everyone was saying they were impossible to use, confusing, etc. Now, it is hard to imagine a shop without one.

I am a 30 year veteran of computer (programming all the way to CTO), software / systems evolve - it is the meaning of agile computing. You start with something that has barely emerged from the slime, but is useful - and then it keeps getting refined, until it can do amazing things.

What will happen is these tools will start off as Aids, and eventually do more and more of the work - for example, you already have tools for xray - blood analysis, etc. But, what happens is that doctors will be trained more to deal with edge cases, and not be so bogged down with the common details.

I remember once, in a project for telling people how to calibrate a x-ray machine using a certain film, that the "expert" was convinced that no one could write a algorithm to calculate it - well I did in about 1 hour.

Those who get put out to pasture are usually those who deny progress.