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Old 03-25-2014, 02:11 PM   #21
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I have failed to shorten my life sufficiently, as I retired at 59.5. I guess I'll have to put up with a longer span of doing what I damn well please, and when.
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Old 03-25-2014, 02:28 PM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meadbh View Post

...

The bottom line is that correlation does not imply causation. A cohort study cannot prove causation.
Excellent. My thoughts exactly.
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Old 03-25-2014, 02:33 PM   #23
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I'll take my chances. Anecdotally, my dad retired at 52 (Fed pension), and I think it resulted in better health for him, as after retirement he had less stress, better life satisfaction, more physical activity.
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Old 03-25-2014, 03:47 PM   #24
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NPR Series on Retirement. Today's "All Things Considered".
University of Michigan's Health and Retirement Study (study) is analyzed by various people and they come to different conclusions.

Skip the first 30 seconds of this audio, hehe.

Retirement is 'bad' for health/longevity:
Dhaval M. Dave, National Bureau of Economic Research
Susann Rohwedder, Associate Director, RAND Center for the Study of Aging; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Retirement is 'good' for health/longevity:
Michael Insler, Assistant Professor Economics Department United States Naval Academy

Can't generalize because it depends on HOW you retire:
Edward Schneider, M.D. USCDavis. Emeritus Dean of the Andrus Gerontology Center Professor of Gerontology, Medicine, and Biological Science, Demographics and Health Care.
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Old 03-25-2014, 03:58 PM   #25
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Some snips from the University of Michigan's study:

Quote:
Health problems can have a big influence
on the decision to retire early. One analysis
of HRS data suggests that poor health is a
stronger influence than financial variables on
people’s decisions to retire. Poor health is
cited as being very important in the decision
to retire for 35 percent of people ages 55 to
59, but considerably less so among those 60
and older.
Quote:
Many studies have explored the relationship
between health and retirement, but they often
have differed in their conclusions as to whether
health or financial variables are more important
in the decision to retire. Some of the difference
is attributed to problems with correctly measuring
health status and some to the belief that individuals
may report poor health as a justification for
early retirement. One analysis of early HRS data
(McGarry 2002) found that subjective reports of
health more strongly influence the transition to
retirement than do financial variables. Poor health
was strongly correlated with the decision to leave
the labor force. These important but basically
unsettled questions about health reasons versus
financial reasons for retirement are the subject of
continuing research.
Quote:
Previous studies have indicated that retired people
report more loneliness and unhappiness than
do people who are working. One might ask whether
retirement makes people lonely and unhappy, or
if people who were lonely and unhappy to begin
with are more apt to retire. A study of retired male
HRS participants in the mid-1990s who had not
been working for at least a year showed that the
latter was the case. That is, unhappy and lonely
individuals were more likely than others to retire.
After controlling for this predisposing condition, it
turns out that retirement actually tends to make
people happier and less lonely (University of
Michigan 2002).
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Old 03-25-2014, 04:26 PM   #26
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Hmmm - layed off at 49.5. Ticked me off so much that I ER'd. Going on 71, if I'm going to kick off early then I'd better hurry up and party harder.

Right?

heh heh heh - and what about those silly longevety calculators where you put in current age?
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Old 03-25-2014, 04:57 PM   #27
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Ok, after 3rd cup of coffee ....

When I RE, I plan to work hard on improving my physical (exercise, exercise, exercise) & mental health (recover from stress). I'd be pissed if my improved health will lead to earlier death.
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Old 03-25-2014, 05:04 PM   #28
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No purpose = die early, IMHO.
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Old 03-25-2014, 05:09 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by robnplunder View Post
Ok, after 3rd cup of coffee ....

When I RE, I plan to work hard on improving my physical (exercise, exercise, exercise) & mental health (recover from stress). I'd be pissed if my improved health will lead to earlier death.
Well said, robnplunder!
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Old 03-25-2014, 05:28 PM   #30
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Diagnosed and cured of cancer age 53, with statistical chance of recurrance pretty high within first five years.
Precarious financial situation, taking on debt to expand my own business expansion made for second thoughts about leaving DW w/$$$ obligations. Decision to retire w/ "not quite enough" worked out perfectly so personal experience trumps statistical odds, and 25 years later, hoping to defy the experts.

All depends on what one considers "Early"
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Old 03-25-2014, 05:40 PM   #31
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If I die early, it will probably be from the chain saw getting away from me or falling off the cabin while building it. I will be doing a lot more physically demanding work at least through 65 in retirement than while employed.

I'll be happy to take my chances.
If one retired early because of illness, would anyone advise him/her to do differently?

And then, if a healthy person does something in ER that leads to an early demise, well, he/she has had a good time, so is that so bad?
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Old 03-25-2014, 05:48 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by imoldernu View Post
Diagnosed and cured of cancer age 53, with statistical chance of recurrance pretty high within first five years.
Precarious financial situation, taking on debt to expand my own business expansion made for second thoughts about leaving DW w/$$$ obligations. Decision to retire w/ "not quite enough" worked out perfectly so personal experience trumps statistical odds, and 25 years later, hoping to defy the experts.

All depends on what one considers "Early"
I decided to ER in 2012 after seeing my then 23-yr old son coming down with a rare infection that could have cost him his life.

Then, early in 2013 I was diagnosed with a disease that threatened my life. After treatments and surgeries, it seems OK now, but I am certainly glad that I did not have to work during and after this ordeal. Having options is great, and I have exercised it.

Money is also less big a deal to me than it was. When your life gets threatened, it certainly forces you to set priority differently. I have not participated much in investment threads since then for that reason, or if I did it was only half-seriously. It's only money, folks.
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Old 03-25-2014, 05:53 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by imoldernu View Post
Decision to retire w/ "not quite enough" worked out perfectly so personal experience trumps statistical odds, and 25 years later, hoping to defy the experts.
Your story is seriously inspiring and shows how individuals are not the same as the average of their cohort.

I was lucky. Retired with a solid pension that covered 75% of my essential expenses and a decent nest egg. In the past 13 years, the market has been kind enough to make our situation even more solid, so it's all good.
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Old 03-26-2014, 10:10 AM   #34
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Can't generalize because it depends on HOW you retire:
Edward Schneider, M.D. USCDavis. Emeritus Dean of the Andrus Gerontology Center Professor of Gerontology, Medicine, and Biological Science, Demographics and Health Care.
Quote:
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No purpose = die early, IMHO.
+1

Seems like that's what Schneider was saying too.

And I think purpose can be something as simple as spoiling your grandchildren
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Old 03-28-2014, 09:31 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by sengsational View Post
NPR Series on Retirement. Today's "All Things Considered".
University of Michigan's Health and Retirement Study (study) is analyzed by various people and they come to different conclusions.

Skip the first 30 seconds of this audio, hehe.

Retirement is 'bad' for health/longevity:
Dhaval M. Dave, National Bureau of Economic Research
Susann Rohwedder, Associate Director, RAND Center for the Study of Aging; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Retirement is 'good' for health/longevity:
Michael Insler, Assistant Professor Economics Department United States Naval Academy

Can't generalize because it depends on HOW you retire:
Edward Schneider, M.D. USCDavis. Emeritus Dean of the Andrus Gerontology Center Professor of Gerontology, Medicine, and Biological Science, Demographics and Health Care.
I wrote Dr. Insler an email and got a reply (below), emphasis is mine. I wonder what the retirees would say if they were sick versus if they just had a full BS bucket and/or plenty of money. Makes me want to find the survey (but I haven't tried that).
Quote:
Subject: Re: Teasing Out the Michigan Study Data
Date: Wed, 26 Mar 2014 11:53:31 -0400
From: Michael Insler <insler a t usna d o t edu>

Thanks for the email. You are exactly right in that the hardest part in tackling this question is disentangling the effects from folks who are forced into retirement (due to a health issue) from the folks who voluntarily retire. A main task in my analysis is to address this challenge. I am interested in the influence of retirement on health regardless of their motives for retiring, so it is not appropriate to outright "remove" such individuals from my sample. Instead I use a technique that requires being able to reliably predict their intention to retire, whether or not they receive a retirement-causing illness down the road. To do so, the Michigan data contains information on subjects' retirement plans from the first period in which I see them (when they are still working).

The statistical technique is known as "two stage least squares" estimation, in which the "1st" stage is one in which I predict individuals' probability of retiring based on factors that are NOT related to their health. In the "2nd" stage, I use these "clean" predictions to capture the true impact of retirement on health.

I'm not sure how well I'm explaining these technical details, but I am very happy to answer any more questions you might have. Thanks again for your interest!
Best,
Mike
--
Michael A. Insler
Assistant Professor of Economics
United States Naval Academy
Annapolis, MD


On Tue, Mar 25, 2014 at 5:13 PM, wrote:
Dr. Insler,

I heard the interview you did for NPR concerning retirement, health/longevity.

One of the common discussions on the early-retirement.com forum site concerns this idea that as soon as the paycheck stops, people die. Most of the participants, of course, don't buy it, or we wouldn't be retired or striving to retire. The idea many of us use to dismiss the idea is that many of the people in the study quit because they were sick. Were you able to remove the people who quit because they "knew" they only had a few good years left from your analysis?
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Old 03-31-2014, 03:25 PM   #36
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Obviously, one should not take early retirement from the petrochemical industry.
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Old 03-31-2014, 05:07 PM   #37
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I'm not sure how it will affect my personal mortality rate, but I'm certain that what time I do have left will be more enjoyable, and better spent, by not reading articles on scientific studies.

If there is something I want to know, I'll go look it up in a textbook or on PubMed and evaluate it for myself. Some guy or gal with J-school degree is not in a position to evaluate the rigor, accuracy or significance of a study. And if they were, they would be unable to resist pumping up the scary/sexy/amazing points that get clicks and eyeballs while glossing over the truth. They've proven that to my satisfaction.
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Old 04-07-2014, 11:47 AM   #38
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OMG, I retired early! I have less stress, more relaxation, go to the gym more often, take naps, trips, do what I want when I want...and I'm going to die sooner? What a way to go. I would have it any other way!!!
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