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Old 03-22-2010, 09:52 AM   #81
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Congress told the CBO that 'Pigs can Fly' then ask it how will this effect the price of pork. Same as telling them that Congress is going to cut $500 billion out of medicare, pigs can't fly, and congress won't cut medicare by $500 billion, however, the CBO has no choice but to score it like congress will do as it says.

Does anyone know if the original 'Doctors Fix' was a part of some CBO scoring? Like 'Congress is going to mandate a 20% reduction in medicare/medicaid doctors charges, what effect does this have on xxxx bill?'
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Old 03-22-2010, 10:14 AM   #82
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But in the second decade the CBO says it reduces the deficit by $1.2T.
The 1.2 trillion dollar figure is a number that originated outside the CBO process. CBO stated that there was some uncertainty in the numbers that made a precise year by year estimate impractical, but did give a broad estimate of savings in terms of GDP. Commentators multiplied the GDP change out to arrive at the 1.2 trillion dollar figure.

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/108xx/doc...orrection1.pdf

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With this corrected reading, savings from changes to the Medicare program (along with other changes to direct spending that are not associated directly with expanded insurance coverage) would increase at a rate that is between 10 percent and 15 percent per year during the 20202029 period, compared with a growth rate of nearly 15 percent reported in the initial estimate. The long-run budgetary effects of the other broad categories of the legislation are unchanged from the initial estimate. All told, CBO expects that the legislation, if enacted, would reduce federal budget deficits over the decade after 2019 relative to those projected under current lawwith a total effect during that decade that is in a broad range between one-quarter percent and one-half percent of GDP. In comparison, the extrapolations in the initial estimate implied a reduction in deficits in the 20202029 period that would be in a broad range around one-half percent of GDP. The imprecision of these calculations reflects the even greater degree of uncertainty that attends to them, compared with CBOs 10-year budget estimates. The expected reduction in deficits would represent a small share of the total deficits that would be likely to arise in that decade under current policies.
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Old 03-22-2010, 10:23 AM   #83
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The 1.2 trillion dollar figure is a number that originated outside the CBO process. CBO stated that there was some uncertainty in the numbers that made a precise year by year estimate impractical, but did give a broad estimate of savings in terms of GDP. Commentators multiplied the GDP change out to arrive at the 1.2 trillion dollar figure.

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/108xx/doc...orrection1.pdf

That's good color. But they do, indeed, project that the legislation will result in deficit reduction in the second decade.
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Old 03-22-2010, 10:48 AM   #84
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That's good color. But they do, indeed, project that the legislation will result in deficit reduction in the second decade.
True, but how much credence do you give to forecasts 10-20 years out?
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Old 03-22-2010, 11:06 AM   #85
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I predict that the new health care bill will only help half as much as its supporters claim it will. I also predict that the health care bill will only hurt half as much as its opponents say it will. I also predict that medical care costs will continue to rise at an unacceptable rate and eventually more drastic action will be required.

I also predict that anyone posting on this subject will not change a single person's mind*.



* or a married person's mind
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Old 03-22-2010, 11:14 AM   #86
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I don't think anyone has the answer to that question, but it is a reasonable conclusion from the following points (which I think are relatively uncontroversial).

1) People without health insurance have worse health outcomes than those that do
2) The legislation extends insurance to 30MM people who don't currently have it
3) The article Samclem linked to says that we'll spend the same amount of GDP on healthcare in 10 years regardless of whether the legislation passes or not.

Does it fix the problems you say?

1) They might have 'worse' outcomes, but how much worse? Could it be because they do not have insurance or they are in the lower social economic level who don't take care of themselves as much? I am not sure how much better they will be.

2) We will see. After the lawsuits and other things that take place, I doubt it will. It might provide the opportunity of covereage to 30 million more, but I would not say that there will not be a good number of uninsured people after (or when) this goes into affect.

3) The whole point was to reduce the amount that we were paying for health care... that is why I think the Dems got off track. They have always wanted to 'insure the uninsured'... or universal coverage... they kept talking about insurance reform, but the main objective of this legislation is universal coverage... and then some insurace reform... very very little cost reduction...



As for deficit reduction.... and this is something most people don't get... if we can raise funds to pay for X (which we will call universal coverage fot this).... they we can raise that exact same amount for Y (which I will call deficit reduction)....

SOOOO, if we just do the tax increases and do NOT do the spending... we can balance our budget and start to pay down the debt.
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Old 03-22-2010, 11:25 AM   #87
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Does it fix the problems you say?
It doesn't "fix" anything as written..........

Quote:
As for deficit reduction.... and this is something most people don't get... if we can raise funds to pay for X (which we will call universal coverage fot this).... they we can raise that exact same amount for Y (which I will call deficit reduction)....

SOOOO, if we just do the tax increases and do NOT do the spending... we can balance our budget and start to pay down the debt.
When was the LAST TIME that happened in Washington D.C.??
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Old 03-22-2010, 11:27 AM   #88
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That's good color. But they do, indeed, project that the legislation will result in deficit reduction in the second decade.
I heard that about Medicare/Medicaid when it was passed 1965, turns out the govt was forced to admit in the 1980's that their "projections appeared to be underestimated"............

How many of the current uninsured are illegal aliens? It would never happen, but if we are to have universal healthcare, then my feeling is you need to be a US CITIZEN to have access..no freebies...........
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Old 03-22-2010, 12:12 PM   #89
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Well, dang. I always said the last day I work is the day they pass universal health insurance.

I'll have to run a cost benefit to see if working is "worth it" now.
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Old 03-23-2010, 10:26 AM   #90
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In another thread it was pointed out that (due to a Republican initiative), members of Congress would be subject to the new health care law. Unfortunately, the President and his cabinet members were overlooked in this area. Fortunately, one of the things being done to help improve the law is to require the President and cabinet officials to get their own health insurance through the new exchanges that are being set up. I think everyone can see the wisdom of this and should favor this senate amendment to the existing legislation. As expressed by Senator Grassley:
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“It’s only fair and logical that top administration officials, who fought so hard for passage of this overhaul of America’s health care system, experience it themselves. If it’s as good as promised, they’ll know it first-hand. If there are problems, they’ll be able to really understand them, as they should.”
Initial attempts to insert this language into the original bill were unsuccessful, so it seems that now is the best time to get this done. This is one of the constructive steps now being taken to improve the legislation, and I know those who have called for a coming together of Republicans and Democrats will support this amendment as another effort to produce the best possible health care for the American people.

Here's the full text of his press release on the subject.
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Old 03-23-2010, 02:08 PM   #91
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I predict that the new health care bill will only help half as much as its supporters claim it will. I also predict that the health care bill will only hurt half as much as its opponents say it will. I also predict that medical care costs will continue to rise at an unacceptable rate and eventually more drastic action will be required.

I also predict that anyone posting on this subject will not change a single person's mind*.



* or a married person's mind
I predict that TravelLovers predictions are the most accurate in the whole debate.

Now somebody fess up to having your mind changed.
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Old 03-23-2010, 03:35 PM   #92
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Well, dang. I always said the last day I work is the day they pass universal health insurance.
And I said that I'd make an appointment to see my doctor about my somewhat high blood pressure.

And Rush Limbaugh said he'd leave the country.
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Old 03-23-2010, 03:44 PM   #93
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And I said that I'd make an appointment to see my doctor about my somewhat high blood pressure.

And Rush Limbaugh said he'd leave the country.
That reminds me, did that Baldwin guy ever move to Canada? No? Wonder what makes people tell such lies...
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Old 03-24-2010, 11:11 AM   #94
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That's good color. But they do, indeed, project that the legislation will result in deficit reduction in the second decade.
I'd be happier if the projected deficit reduction had a larger component of reduced health care costs and a smaller component of higher taxes to pay for higher health care costs.
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Old 03-24-2010, 11:15 AM   #95
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And Rush Limbaugh said he'd leave the country.
Not to defend Rush, I'm no fan. But he said he'd leave the country for medical care. He didn't say he'd leave the country to live someplace else full time. Now if he really follows through and participates in medical tourism, as is so often talked about on our board, will be interesting to note in the future.

I dislike political pundits on both sides of the propaganda war. But I dislike the media doing misleading editing or misquoting even more. They make the news such a joke.......
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Old 03-24-2010, 06:08 PM   #96
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In another thread it was pointed out that (due to a Republican initiative), members of Congress would be subject to the new health care law.
Really, the party that didn't cast one AYE vote in either the House or the Senate is claiming credit for something in the bill . . . really?
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Old 03-24-2010, 06:19 PM   #97
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Not to defend Rush, I'm no fan. But he said he'd leave the country for medical care.
Yeah, he said he'd go to Costa Rica . . . which has universal health care.

Almost as good as Glenn Beck saying he educated himself on the dangers of socialism by studying at the library . . . "where books are free".
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Old 03-24-2010, 06:43 PM   #98
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Costa Rica also has a public option.

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he said he'd leave the country for medical care.
I agree, but it's ambiguous enough that you can pardon the misunderstanding. I'm posting this just 'cause it's funny:

CostaRica.mp3 - File Shared from Box.net - Free Online File Storage
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Old 03-24-2010, 07:53 PM   #99
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Thanks for your participation in the discussion of the effect of the new health insurance initiatives on retirement. But now as we begin to veer off into other issues it is time for Porky to make his appearance...

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