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Old 11-05-2013, 08:50 PM   #21
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Pop died at 92 but he did not take particularly good care of himself. Mom died 20 years earlier of environmentally caused cancer. I am planning for 95, but you know what they say about planning. If I make 80 standing up, I will be happy.
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Old 11-05-2013, 10:16 PM   #22
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I wouldn't rule out the possibility that there may come a point where medical science can halt or reverse the aging process. I've heard people in the field discussing that we may see something like this in our lifetimes.
With everything around us becoming digitized, and the exponential power of computing, I wonder if our brains could become digitized too. Then I wondered if I would push that button to give myself that kind of everlasting life.
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Old 11-06-2013, 12:07 AM   #23
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I used 95 for financial planning purposes, mainly to cover my DW.

I have no need/wish/want to live to 95. I hope I have shuffled off this mortal coil long before that. Wasn't there a deoderant commercial or something that had a line "just a quick pfffft will do it"? That's what I want (a quick pfffft, not some deoderant! ).
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Old 11-06-2013, 07:33 AM   #24
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I obviously understand that I cannot be immortal, but I run a non-amortizing perpetual portfolio plan. There is just something I do not like about a drop dead date.

Ha
+1. I don't plan on running it out. That said, all the hype about increasing longevity is overhyped. Most of the gains in life expectancy is from fewer childhood deaths. Lifespan has increased a bit but not dramatically. A lot of biotech optimists talk like we will all be seeing decades more life span than our parents but it looks like BS to me. We can't launch a web connection to a few government and health insurance databases and we expect to fine tune our biological machinery in the next decade or two? Gimme a break. Maybe at the end of the 21st century.
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Old 11-06-2013, 08:52 AM   #25
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Aging is a process that we currently don't understand very well. For some reason, the human body is aggressive about repairing itself when young, but as it ages it stops those aggressive repairs. It's very possible that that behavior can be changed.

It may be something as simple as tricking the body into thinking it is actually 20 years old instead of 80.

Obviously its a long shot, but like I said, I wouldn't rule it out.

I potentially have 40 years of time for them to figure it out. My toddler daughter may have 80. That's an awful long time, considering that we've only had the microprocessor for about 40 years.


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+1. I don't plan on running it out. That said, all the hype about increasing longevity is overhyped. Most of the gains in life expectancy is from fewer childhood deaths. Lifespan has increased a bit but not dramatically. A lot of biotech optimists talk like we will all be seeing decades more life span than our parents but it looks like BS to me. We can't launch a web connection to a few government and health insurance databases and we expect to fine tune our biological machinery in the next decade or two? Gimme a break. Maybe at the end of the 21st century.
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Old 11-06-2013, 08:59 AM   #26
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If you will feel lucky to live until 85 and only fund enough of a retirement to get to 85, you might indeed by lucky to live until 85.... but you would be unlucky to live PAST 85!

For most people, retirement planning is more about avoiding "running out of money" than it is about maximizing the nest egg you have when you kick the bucket. And that often means conservative planning, such as assuming a lifespan of (say) 90-100 years old.
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Old 11-06-2013, 09:23 AM   #27
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... all the hype about increasing longevity is overhyped. Most of the gains in life expectancy is from fewer childhood deaths. Lifespan has increased a bit but not dramatically. A lot of biotech optimists talk like we will all be seeing decades more life span than our parents but it looks like BS to me...
Cancer rates have been increasing since 1950. And they are expected to keep increasing.
According to French researchers, the incidence of cancer is expected to increase by more than 75% by the year 2030 in developed countries, and over 90% in developing nations.

See: Cancer Rates Expected To Increase 75% By 2030 - Medical News Today.

Many cancer drugs that were heralded as wonderful when they came out were later proven to extend life of patients by just a couple of months. A lot of progress has been made on treatments since 1950, but further breakthroughs seem to get harder and harder.

Back on the cancer increase, how about stopping it? Obviously, we do not know how, or cannot.
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Old 11-06-2013, 09:27 AM   #28
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It may be something as simple as tricking the body into thinking it is actually 20 years old instead of 80.
Piece of cake. Give every 80 year old a 20 year old lover at least weekly as part of Medicare.

Ha
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Old 11-06-2013, 09:34 AM   #29
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Piece of cake. Give every 80 year old a 20 year old lover at least weekly as part of Medicare.

Ha
A government program I can support!
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Old 11-06-2013, 09:36 AM   #30
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My wife's family nobody's made it past 75. My family everyone is in their 90's. Judging by my parents quality of life in their late 80s and 90s I don't know if I want to live that long. Dementia sucks.

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Old 11-06-2013, 10:07 AM   #31
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Piece of cake. Give every 80 year old a 20 year old lover at least weekly as part of Medicare.

Ha
But as they say, "дух бодр, плоть же немощна", which means "The vodka is good, but the meat is rotten".

Oops! Wrong translation. Let me try again.

"The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak"
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Old 11-06-2013, 10:14 AM   #32
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+1. I don't plan on running it out. That said, all the hype about increasing longevity is overhyped. Most of the gains in life expectancy is from fewer childhood deaths. Lifespan has increased a bit but not dramatically. A lot of biotech optimists talk like we will all be seeing decades more life span than our parents but it looks like BS to me. We can't launch a web connection to a few government and health insurance databases and we expect to fine tune our biological machinery in the next decade or two? Gimme a break. Maybe at the end of the 21st century.
Life expectancy at age 65 seems to be increasing at over a year per decade. For someone like me (age 48 male), I may have to add about 4 years or so to current life expectancies.

Here are the numbers for male (all races) life expectancy at age 65, from:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hus/2011/022.pdf

1950 12.8
1960 12.8
1970 13.1
1980 14.1
1990 15.1
2000 16.0
2010 17.7


According to a recent New York Times article that detailed a Norwegian study on 5000 people and linked a calculator based on the findings, my "fitness age" is 20 (the highest possible score and a significant factor in a longer life, so they say). I have never smoked or used drugs. I am Caucasian. I have a graduate degree. I am not a teetotaler (which is a risk factor for a shorter life, believe it or not!). I have an ideal BMI.

But I drive a motorcycle, am pre-hypertensive, and live in a developing country.

Welcome to the strange world of life expectancy prediction!
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Old 11-06-2013, 10:45 AM   #33
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I've been thinking about this since Prudential came out with their "Age Stickers" commercial. It is an interesting thought experiment, but the graph they create is not an actuarial mean since the question they ask is "what age is the oldest person you know?"


At first glance, one would think I should plan for about 98. They are probably selling annuities, so this is clever advertising. It makes you think: "what if I did live to 100?", while of course the actuarial mean is different.

I'm planning for 90. We've had very few in our family go over that, although dad is headed there.
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Old 11-06-2013, 10:59 AM   #34
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But as they say, "дух бодр, плоть же немощна", which means "The vodka is good, but the meat is rotten".

Oops! Wrong translation. Let me try again.

"The spirit is willing, but the flesh is weak"
But they have drugs for that now...
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Old 11-06-2013, 11:01 AM   #35
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Old 11-06-2013, 11:01 AM   #36
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..."what age is the oldest person you know?"
I've known a few that made it to 90 and beyond, but only a couple who were in any sort of decent health, let alone active.
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Old 11-06-2013, 11:13 AM   #37
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I've known a few that made it to 90 and beyond, but only a couple who were in any sort of decent health, let alone active.
I saw a very chipper looking guy walking out of Trader Joe a few days back wearing a Yale class reunion jacket from 1940. If he was 22 at graduation: 22+(2013-1940)=95. I talked to him a bit. He worked in finance and lives in a nearby very posh neighborhood, so he had wealth going for him, which is well known to correlate with longevity.

Still, you are clearly correct, most nonagenarians are not super active. I do think many here underestimate their chances for a long and relatively active life. Some think they should frontload retirement spending since they won't have much oomph after age 70.

Poppycock! Just an excuse to overspend.

Ha
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Old 11-06-2013, 11:14 AM   #38
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I've known a few that made it to 90 and beyond, but only a couple who were in any sort of decent health, let alone active.
Right! Beyond 90, I probably just need morphine to put me in a haze to stop the pain.

However, I personally know one very active 104 year old. She's an extreme outlier. Sharp as a tack, and was dancing at her great-great niece's wedding at 102. She's also not in my family. It does happen, but she's the 0.01%
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Old 11-06-2013, 11:17 AM   #39
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From last year:
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At the time we decided to retire, we had a detailed plan... a budget... income and outgo... and looking back 22 years, despite huge variances from our initial plan, we are almost exactly on the budget.

There are hundreds of financial planners on line where you put in your estimates of assets, and return and inflation, and come up with the amount you need to retire. In our case it doesn't work... All of the planners make the assumption that you will want to maintain your asset capital until you die... In our case, had we followed their plan, we NEVER would have retired.
We just decided to die at age 85... dead broke. Made our planning much easier. Personal decision of course, but if you plan to spend down capital assets, it makes planning easier.
Sharing 23 years of Frugal Retirement

So that was a year ago... Haven't changed our plan, except that re-doing the financials, we have a better cushion... perhaps to age 93-95. Still planning the spend-down. Have also established our back-up "Phase II", which not only addresses the financial part of retirement, but the later year options, with provisions for changes in health, interests, and the other parts of living that come with advanced age.

The "later years" when one is young, can be a fuzzy concept, unless there is a 24/7 relationship with an older person. Many of our ER members have shared their experience with older parents or relatives, and will have a better understanding of what "four score" means as it relates to aging, and the difference between ages 50 to 70... and the next 20 years.
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Old 11-06-2013, 11:21 AM   #40
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I saw a very chipper looking guy walking out of Trader Joe a few days back wearing a Yale class reunion jacket from 1940. If he was 22 at graduation: 22+(2013-1940)=95. I talked to him a bit. he lived in a nearby very posh neighborhood, so he had wealth going for him, which is well known to correlate with longevity.

Still, you are clearly correct, most nonagenarians are not super active. I do think many here underestimate their chances for a long and relatively active life. Some think they should frontload retirement spending since they won't have much oomph after age 70.

Poppycock! Just an excuse to overspend.

Ha
I know a lady in my former hometown who is in her 90s (unsure of her exact age) who cans a few hundred jars of pickles each year, much to the delight of recipients. However, I had a great uncle who lived to 90-something, and I'm not sure he knew who he was for the last 5 or more years he was "alive"...

When my parents lived in FL, my dad marshalled at a local golf course for tips and free golf. There were many older folks still very active, and quite a few still playing decent golf. But, of course, that was self-selecting, as those not so functional likely weren't going to the course...
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