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Old 11-06-2013, 11:29 AM   #41
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Let's say someone saves 20 times desired income and retires at age 50. These 20 units will be used at the following ages:

51-60 9 units
61-70 5 units
71-80 3 units
81-90 2 units
91-100 1 unit

The rest comes from compounded earnings.

It only takes 1 year of desired income saved today to supply income in years 41-50

It is cheap to plan for old age when you retire early.
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Old 11-06-2013, 12:13 PM   #42
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My grandfather knew exactly when he was going to die. The judge told him.
Wow. Not sure I want to know the whole story.
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Old 11-06-2013, 12:23 PM   #43
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But realistically I’ve been taking notice of how old famous people are when they die, I’ve seen ranges from 60’s to 90’s sometimes there is a abnormally young or old death but most seem to fall somewhere in the 70 – 85 range.
Famous people may not provide a representative sample, unless you are also famous! Most of the famous people are by definition entertainers, and their life style is entirely different -- burning the candle at both ends.

I haven't looked into it.. but I think what would be really be nice is to have an insurance product whereby we are not forced to self-insure for a small probability/big impact scenario -- which is running out of money when you hit your outer limit -- say 85 years. If you can buy a an actual "LIFE" insurance which PAYS when you live past 85 in the form of a monthly allowance, that would be great. That way you can go about saving/planning for a more normal 85 year life span. May be an annuity can be configured to that effect. Need to see if the cost is something we can live with. Then again, you should pray the company that sells it is going to outlive you.
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Old 11-06-2013, 12:37 PM   #44
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Famous people may not provide a representative sample, unless you are also famous! Most of the famous people are by definition entertainers, and their life style is entirely different -- burning the candle at both ends.

I haven't looked into it.. but I think what would be really be nice is to have an insurance product whereby we are not forced to self-insure for a small probability/big impact scenario -- which is running out of money when you hit your outer limit -- say 85 years. If you can buy a an actual "LIFE" insurance which PAYS when you live past 85 in the form of a monthly allowance, that would be great. That way you can go about saving/planning for a more normal 85 year life span. May be an annuity can be configured to that effect. Need to see if the cost is something we can live with. Then again, you should pray the company that sells it is going to outlive you.
There are some threads dealing with these products- I think they are called deferred annuities.

The gorilla in the rom is inflation. Things may be different now, but my entire life has been a lesson in paying attention to real, vs. nominal values. Not planning to deviate from this now.

Ha
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Old 11-06-2013, 01:02 PM   #45
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According to a recent New York Times article that detailed a Norwegian study on 5000 people and linked a calculator based on the findings, my "fitness age" is 20 (the highest possible score and a significant factor in a longer life, so they say). I have never smoked or used drugs. I am Caucasian. I have a graduate degree. I am not a teetotaler (which is a risk factor for a shorter life, believe it or not!). I have an ideal BMI.

But I drive a motorcycle, am pre-hypertensive, and live in a developing country.

Welcome to the strange world of life expectancy prediction!
For those interested, here is a link to that New York Times article plus the calculator of fitness age mentioned in the article.

My fitness age according to this calculator is 37

Fitness calculator - CERG - NTNU

http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/1...s-your-health/
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Old 11-06-2013, 01:10 PM   #46
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Piece of cake. Give every 80 year old a 20 year old lover at least weekly as part of Medicare. Ha
"Grandpa?"

Meanwhile 20 year olds go into hiding all across the country.
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Old 11-06-2013, 01:17 PM   #47
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Meanwhile 20 year olds go into hiding all across the country.
..and start signing up for health insurance.
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Old 11-06-2013, 01:28 PM   #48
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When my parents lived in FL, my dad marshalled at a local golf course for tips and free golf. There were many older folks still very active, and quite a few still playing decent golf. But, of course, that was self-selecting, as those not so functional likely weren't going to the course...
Yes. When I went to the nursing home to visit my father-in-law who was in his 90s, I saw plenty of people in their 60s, and some even in the 50s!
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Old 11-06-2013, 01:42 PM   #49
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Wow. Not sure I want to know the whole story.
I do.
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Old 11-06-2013, 01:49 PM   #50
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Wow. Not sure I want to know the whole story.
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I do.
It was just a joke, maybe I should finished it with <rim shot>
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Old 11-06-2013, 01:54 PM   #51
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My/our simple view is that we would rather die with money, than live without it.

The estimated longivity in our retirement plan reflects that view.
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Old 11-06-2013, 01:56 PM   #52
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The estimated longivity in our retirement plan reflects that view.
Now you're speaking like a Texan
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Old 11-06-2013, 01:57 PM   #53
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It was just a joke, maybe I should finished it with <rim shot>
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Old 11-06-2013, 02:02 PM   #54
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I used 95 for financial planning purposes, mainly to cover my DW.
But have you run the numbers if you die at 70 and she lives to 100? That is the "cover my DW" number you have to worry about.
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Old 11-06-2013, 02:17 PM   #55
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here's a fun chart from the IRS mortality data showing age versus the probability of being alive. Men (blue) and women (red).

Note that at 80 around 45% of the men and around 65% of the women are still alive.

Note that at 90 around 15% of the men and around 28% of the women are still alive.

There are still lots of people around after the median age of expiration has passed. Note also that some live for quite awhile after the median age of expiration.
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File Type: png probability_of_living.png (4.1 KB, 13 views)
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Old 11-06-2013, 02:37 PM   #56
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One thing to note in these averages and median data is all these are relative to your current age.

If your life expectancy is 75 when you are 50, it will be higher when you are 60 even without taking into account any advancements in medicine, and any other external changes. The fact that you made it to 60 means all the possibilities of you kicking the bucket betn. 50 and 60 didn't come to pass. So that moves the life expectancy further out.

Add to this all the improvements and innovations in medical science to cure combined with various ways of just not letting people die.. you get the idea.

So it is always a moving target unless you stipulate it's lights out at a date certain!
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Old 11-06-2013, 02:46 PM   #57
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Cancer rates have been increasing since 1950. And they are expected to keep increasing.
According to French researchers, the incidence of cancer is expected to increase by more than 75% by the year 2030 in developed countries, and over 90% in developing nations.

See: Cancer Rates Expected To Increase 75% By 2030 - Medical News Today.

Many cancer drugs that were heralded as wonderful when they came out were later proven to extend life of patients by just a couple of months. A lot of progress has been made on treatments since 1950, but further breakthroughs seem to get harder and harder.

Back on the cancer increase, how about stopping it? Obviously, we do not know how, or cannot.
Are these numbers adjusted for the fact that people are not dying of some other causes? This is a zero-sum game for us mere mortals.

IIRC, the correct way to measure this is incidences of new cancers at each age, as a % of population at that age. And then you need to adjust for diagnostic techniques that might find more cancers than in the past.

-ERD50
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Old 11-06-2013, 03:12 PM   #58
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It was just a joke, maybe I should finished it with <rim shot>
I just figured you could come up with a plausible relative that this might have happened to! I have faith in your storytelling.
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Old 11-06-2013, 03:18 PM   #59
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I just figured you could come up with a plausible relative that this might have happened to! I have faith in your storytelling.
I do have a Great Aunt who killed herself by hanging, maybe she saved the judge from naming the day.
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Old 11-06-2013, 03:20 PM   #60
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One thing to note in these averages and median data is all these are relative to your current age.

If your life expectancy is 75 when you are 50, it will be higher when you are 60 even without taking into account any advancements in medicine, and any other external changes. The fact that you made it to 60 means all the possibilities of you kicking the bucket betn. 50 and 60 didn't come to pass. So that moves the life expectancy further out.

Add to this all the improvements and innovations in medical science to cure combined with various ways of just not letting people die.. you get the idea.

So it is always a moving target unless you stipulate it's lights out at a date certain!
Can you check my reasoning? It appears that at age 70, roughly 60 men out of the original 100 are alive. (Just roughly reading off the chart.) At 80, that number is reduced to 45 men. So 45 of 60 men who entered the 8th decade of life, make it into the next decade alive. Looking ahead at 70, a random man has 45/60 chances, or a 75% chance of seeing his 80th birthday.

Could definitely be worse!

Ha
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